Ladies and gentlemen, it's time we had a chat.
With the winds whipping from Utah to Kensington and Paris to Waverley Park, whether we like it or not, it's back en vogue. So, pull up a pew, folks. Let's talk tanking.
While the true aim of any sporting franchise is to successfully stuff silverware into already overcrowded cabinets, for middling teams free from the fear of relegation, the confetti can't fly without seasons in the cellar.
Still, as invitations to join in next season will always arise, no matter how tired, poor, wretched and tempest-tossed a team's title hopes may appear, corners can be cut, with sides aiming low to eventually soar.
Given the vast majority of closed competitions around the globe see talent trucked in via drafts, like shopping centres on Boxing Day, fisticuffs for early entry are wagered. Only this time, it's the trampled few that are last to the register who consider themselves winners.
For many, the practice of tanking attacks the very heart of sport as a construct, providing a second-chance prize in what is meant to be a zero-sum game.
Yet, while sneered at by purists, and supposedly punishable by administrators, races to the bottom remain alive and well, as will soon be evident in NBA circles, given the most promising prospect since LeBron James sat his SATs is now up for grabs.
Although the birth of this notion aimed at giving up to pick up is unequivocally American, the practice has made its way to Australian shores of late, providing yet another fault line in an already ailing system.
Despite the imperious claims to the counter from those at league headquarters, with arguably the easiest route towards obtaining top talent in any competition on Earth, the deceptive art of not trying has already pervaded AFL circles.
As witnessed at both Carlton and Melbourne since the turn of the century, already seismically poor sides cemented their status as the lowest of the low, shifting players out of position and conjuring timely injuries from the thinnest of air.
While the Blues and Demons held a monopoly over the opening selection of every draft between 2005 and 2009, none of the teenaged messiahs secured after striking out would ever drive them back to the promised land.
But as visibility surrounding the draft continues to expand, and competition powerbrokers spruik a vigilance towards intentional incompetence, just how obvious is it to spot a deliberate dawdler?
Having added wooden spoons in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the mid-30s, life at Arden Street has been undeniably strained of late.
With the careers of coaches coming a cropper, ties binding talented teens severed and just nine wins arising since social distancing became de rigeuer, there has been little cause for chorus among the Kangaroos' huddle.
And with few crystal balls forecasting a rise up the ladder next season, whether they need it or not, North Melbourne has effectively been green-lit by the court of public opinion to drag their heels next season. Their long-term health depends on it, after all.
However, in the wake of a firesale, one which saw 539 games of experience depart their list in just 32 hours, questions surrounding Hawthorn's intentions entering 2023 have sprung up like fungus after rain.
As each were recently shifted away from their prime areas of expertise, those with keen eyes could sense that the futures of Ben McEvoy, Jack Gunston, Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell in brown and gold bars was tenuous at best.
Though each member of this quartet either hung the boots up, shifted across state lines or made the move down EastLink by the end of the exchange period, the net return at the trade table of a singular second-round selection, a trifecta of thirds, a fourth and 22 games of experience raised an eyebrow or two.
Further follicles were put out of place when the pricetag for Mitchell alone last season sat in the draft's upper echelons.
Still, with a desire to persevere, even if the bounty lacked the optimal lustre, it is clear that after just a season holding the Hawks' reins, Sam Mitchell's status as a fastidious planner remains intact.
In the opening months back at his old stomping ground, the five-time Crimmins medallist assessed the whiteboard before him and shuffled previously arc-welded magnets with little courtesy.
O'Meara, Mitchell and McEvoy? Out. Rest your bones ahead of the ball, fellas.
Nash, Newcombe and Reeves? You're up. Go and get your hands dirty, lads.
Macdonald and Moore? Grab a wing and get stuck in.
Ward? Welcome. We'll be book-ending your year at the coalface. Let's sink not swim, young man.
For the 40-year-old, whose life in the league was born after sprinting down backstreets, this propensity to zig where others zag is unsurprising.
And while the mammoth dose of youth has tested the palate of members accustomed to success, Mitchell is simply extending the same opportunities he received as a fresh-faced kid from Melbourne's outer east.
While Mitchell's kettle of fledging Hawks proved able to toast eight wins ahead of September, his choice to run with more players aged 23 and under than any side in the competition still seemed to require explanation.
"We must stick to our plan. We spent a long time building a strategy to bring us our next premiership and personally, I am very pleased with our progress 12 months in," Mitchell wrote to club members in the days after the trade period.
"Part of this strategy was a commitment to invest in the development of our younger players and embed a game style that will withstand the pressure of finals footy when our time comes.
"But in saying that, there is absolutely no ceiling on what this group can achieve or speed limit on how quickly it can be done, and what is more important than me believing that, is the players' belief in our direction."
With this in mind, why after a season in which Mitchell's clone was hailed as the AFL's Best Young Player have murmurs beyond the boundary emerged?
Are Hawthorn's paid-up patrons worried about the calibre of their current roster?
Are some still glued to the outgoing old guard?
Are they unsatisfied with their trade period haul?
Or, has the whirlwind beyond the walls at Waverley swept them into thinking chaos has prevailed over sense?
As a constant within Hawthorn's rise from the canvas to three-time champions, few still ensconced in the game understand the height of each hurdle along the road to glory like Mitchell.
With his entry into the top-flight delayed following 16 off-base snubs, the man with the stacked mantel is perhaps the best-versed name in the game to sympathise with any member of any roster. Superstar or otherwise.
Yet, as the product of his own iron will and simmered thoroughly with an array of spices from the garden of Clarkson, little more than a prod to the chest, a pat on the backside or a clip around the ears is ever likely to arise in this space.
So, how is it that the tag of 'tankers' has been slapped on the most successful club of the AFL era?
In the words of the Supreme Court-appearing, F-tray-clearing solicitor Dennis Denuto, it's just the vibe of the thing.
Following a year of growth and a blinkered exchange period, despite entering November's National Draft strapped with seven overall selections, Hawthorn's arsenal contains just one pick within the opening 20 slots.
Sure, previous recruiters locked within the Sir Kenneth Luke Stand have spun silk shawls with hauls worse than 6, 24, 41, 48, 50, 52 and 60, but with little more than the defensive unit currently set in stone at Bunjil Bagora, a wide net must still be cast.
Irrespective of the stack of stones still to be paved, patience, persistence and the promise of panache have been outlined by head office.
"This year's free agency and trade period was the next step in a longer plan to develop our list and return to premiership contention," Mitchell continued to pen.
"To be honest - we don't get there if we follow the path of least resistance.
"This is about building our next phase of talent. I have no interest (and I know the players feel the same), to just sneak into the finals. Internally, we are working on building premiership standards because only then can we become a premiership team.
"Premiership teams are not built overnight, we want to be in a position where we are competing to win it all when our time comes – whenever that may be."
Akin to their old sparring partners over at Arden Street, recent form, an exodus of talent and a commitment to youth has alarm bells ringing.
And as Mitchell's timeline for contention remains a mystery, the horizon's lure of a prize worth plummeting for has only added weight to theories that the Hawks and Roos are set to renew an aged rivalry.
Only this time, defeats will come at a premium in this proposed race to the bottom.
In contemporary parlance, premiership sides are built on the pillars of culture and a collective buy-in, all acted out by as many A-graders as can be squeezed within a solitary salary cap.
But if sides with little more than picks in their pocket can't sway superstars to join their plight, how can the ladder then be scaled?
Locate these A-graders at the source, of course.
Just like the mad rush that will inevitably be made to land Victor Wembanyama's alien-esque talents at the NBA Draft, AFL outfits with padlocked premiership windows can be forgiven for salivating at the skillset of Harley Reid.
While spruiked as a genuine challenger to Will Ashcroft's stranglehold on the opening selection in next month's draft, the 17-year-old has another season of junior footy to navigate before ascending onto an AFL roster.
Still, if his current hype reel tells his tale in totality, Reid, a member of the 2022 Under-18 All-Australian Team, looks as safe a bet as someone still on their learner's permit can be.
Hailing from. vast planes of 'Dusty Country', the wunderkind produced means of 21.75 disposals, 3.6 inside 50s and 4.1 tackles across the course of his latest season with the Bendigo Pioneers.
Having averaged 17.7 of his own disposals, as well as 4.2 tackles and 3.2 forward entries throughout his Rising Star-winning season completed 19 months before teenager's birth, Reid can be sure that he has Mitchell's attention.
"There's a guy called Harley Reid... If he was in this year's pool he'd be challenging Will Ashcroft for the number one pick even as a 17 year old. There's a lot of Dustin Martin about him." - @caltwomey
Harley Reid's highlight reel is truly jawdropping 🤯 pic.twitter.com/NRjh861E7g
— AFL (@AFL) October 12, 2022
Hard like a cat's head, yet clean in the pack, Reid would act as a sterling addition at the coalface alongside Newcombe and company, as well as providing a valuable asset to stand with Mitch Lewis.
Nevertheless, even if Hawthorn is willing to go full flush on their 2023 season well in advance of the pre-season, their every move will be watched by hawks of a different feather.
With the rivers of gambling gold doing plenty for the league's bottom line, any whiff of dawdling or abstaining will be cracked down on by powerbrokers at AFL House. Remember, we've seen it before.
So, if dodgy injuries, suspect interchanges and perplexing positional changes become the norm as next winter enters spring, Gillon McLachlan's eventual successor may be forced to fire up the butane torch before too long.
Though the riches the opening draft pick can bring are obvious, undermining on-field efforts to obtain these talents is a road best avoided, according to those who have climbed to the top.
As head honcho during the days in which Sydney transformed themselves from 'Ugly Ducklings' to 'Ruthless Bloods', former Swans President Richard Colless knows a thing or two about winning cultures.
When speaking with Michael Warner for the journalist's groundbreaking tome The Boy's Club, the retired administrator stressed that any side willing to sacrifice seasons for prospects ran the risk of killing any momentum already in motion.
"It's so misguided," Colless told of the tanking practice.
"What it does to general morale and individual reputations dramatically outweighs any benefit you might get from an earlier draft pick. It's not only corrupt behaviour, it's dumb and irresponsible."
Reid's highlight reel may have Mitchell and his cohort of recruiters salivating, but for such a scrupulously diligent preparer and performer, one who would rather bleed than take a backward step, it seems a stretch we will see Mitchell instruct his kids to keep their cues in the rack.
But with the prospect of more compromised drafts on the horizon, just how many free hits can his Hawks expect in the seasons to come?
Buoyed by waves of public support and the steady flow of thumbs going up at clubland, it appears as though it is a case of when, and not if, a Tasmanian team expands the AFL family to 19. And as seen with other start-ups across the past decade and change, there may not be too many loaves or fish left for those already at the table.
Premiership Cat Patrick Dangerfield recently contended on his podcast, The Field, that with a Tassie license looming large, the prospect of bottoming out as those on 'The Map' make their mark should be enough to induce cold sweats.
Good theory from Danger?
Listen to the @TheFieldAU for Patrick Dangerfield and Josh Jenkins' breakdown of the trade period. pic.twitter.com/9khKNDROy5
— 7AFL (@7AFL) October 13, 2022
Granted, the head of the Player's Association is sure to have a greater read on the landscape than those with balls in the rough. However, unless those at Waverley predict their window won't open for another four off-seasons, it is hardly of consequence.
Unlike the truckloads of teenaged talent which were delivered express to Carrara and Homebush, it remains unlikely that a Tasmanian team will be bestowed the right to trade early picks for blue-chip kids.
As stated by News Corp earlier this week, while the new kids on the block will be handed a swathe of tantalising selections, the right to mimic the Suns and Giants by dominating the opening stages of drafts will be hamstrung, with league stipulations likely to see many of these picks forced out in exchange for mature-aged talent.
Add in the fact that further expansion is not predicted until at least 2027, and Hawthorn's list boss Mark McKenzie is unlikely to be losing much sleep at the present.
With little more than a month until McKenzie and those around the Hawks' table make the dreams of seven names a reality, those without agency are left wracked with questions and holding few answers.
Will the Hawks breathe life into the rivalry with Geelong by plucking Joel Selwood 2.0 (read as Jhye Clark) the pick before the Cats?
Is there a chance that Henry Hustwaite slides?
Can a long-term strike partner for Lewis be found with another late pick?
Even if everything goes right during the draft, these same speculators need not get too excited as these Hawks still have plenty of growing pains to endure.
Without a fixture list to study, nor exaggerated training reports to swoon over, the likelihood of a side toasting a new skipper, a high turn over and a collective finals experience of 41 games seeing September action is almost invisible.
Success, though, is a different story, as those of us locked out of clubland have a tough time conceiving it, and those within the inner circle rarely rush to define it.
"What I want to see is another year where we make you proud to be a Hawthorn fan," Mitchell concluded his address to the masses.
"There will be ups and downs, as there is with any season. I am very confident that the strategy laid out before all of us as Hawthorn members, is the right one and I for one am damn excited for this next phase."
Though the allure of an inkless Dustin Martin being sent express in exchange for a subpar season is powerful, a man of Mitchell's makeup is primed to resist.
If the call was his alone to make, all cues would be out of all racks, with Hawthorn's opponents beaten soundly off the break; left agog with the chalk cube still resting in hand.
However, as seen with Melbourne during the Dean Bailey era, little agency is afforded to the head coach on such sensitive matters. Golden child or not.
As mentioned, there will be plenty of bumps to be ridden across the course of 2023. Still, the prospect of a brand-new Harley firing on all cylinders will have plenty grinning already.
Even if these smirks require shielding when away from the corridors of Waverley.
