If a week is a long time in footy, then two weeks is a lifetime. Unexpected wins have shaken up each club's run to finals since I last wrote about this. Since then, four teams are now out of realistic finals contention and should look to build for an assault on next season.
So here is a two-week update on where each club stands in their run to finals.
- Adelaide (13 W, 4 L)
Now one-and-a-half games clear on top of the ladder, the Crows are well positioned to take their first minor premiership since 2005. They should go into their remaining fixtures as favourites but will have the comfort of knowing they can afford at least one slip up.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Collingwood (MCG)
- Round 20: Port Adelaide (AO)
- Round 21: Essendon (ES)
- Round 22: Sydney (AO)
- Round 23: West Coast (DS)
2.ย Geelong (11 W, 5 L, 1 D)
Geelong's draw may prove to be crucial as they aim for yet another top four finish. They currently sit one game and a half clear of fifth placed Port Adelaide. Like Adelaide, they should start the rest of their games as favourites but clashes against Sydney, Richmond and GWS will be dangerous if complacency sets in.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Carlton (ES)
- Round 20: Sydney (SS)
- Round 21: Richmond (SS)
- Round 22: Collingwood (MCG)
- Round 23: GWS (SS)
3.ย GWS Giants (10 W, 5 L, 2 D)
The Giants have not won a game since Round 14 as their injury crisis finally takes hold. With Port Adelaide and Sydney's superior percentage, they risk missing the top four and even finals altogether if they continue their downward trend. Their final few fixtures won't help as they are against teams fighting hard for a top eight spot.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Fremantle (SPO)
- Round 20: Melbourne (UNSW)
- Round 21:ย Western Bulldogsย (ES)
- Round 22: West Coast (SPO)
- Round 23: Geelong (SS)
4.ย Richmond (11 W, 6 L)
The Tigers still have two weeks against current bottom eight sides in Gold Coast and Hawthorn which they should win. But a trip to Geelong in Round 21 and Fremantle in Round 22 could see their efforts come undone. The Dockers recent form means Richmond should start favourites for all their games bar their trip down the highway to the Cattery.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Gold Coast (MS)
- Round 20: Hawthorn (MCG)
- Round 21: Geelong (SS)
- Round 22: Fremantle (DS)
- Round 23: St Kilda (MCG)
5.ย Port Adelaide (10 W, 7 L)
Port Adelaide's slip up last week opened the door for Sydney, Melbourne and Richmond to sneak into the top four. Like a number of other teams, they should start as favourites in their remaining fixtures, but a good result in the Round 20 Showdown will be crucial if Port is to earn the finals double chance.
Games to come:
- Round 19: St Kilda (AO)
- Round 20: Adelaide (AO)
- Round 21: Collingwood (AO)
- Round 22:ย Western Bulldogsย (MSB)
- Round 23: Gold Coast (AO)
6.ย Sydney Swans (10 W, 7 L)
Sydney's rise has been meteoric and they now only sit one game outside the top four. Trips to Geelong and Adelaide in Rounds 20 and 22 will be big challenges as they aim to become the first club to make finals after starting 0-6 since the current final eight system was introduced. Sydney could conceivably go all the way with the level of football they are currently producing.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Hawthorn (MCG)
- Round 20: Geelong (SS)
- Round 21: Fremantle (SCG)
- Round 22: Adelaide (AO)
- Round 23: Carlton (SCG)
7.ย Melbourne (10 W, 7 L)
A trip to Tasmania this weekend and an opportunity to break North Melbourne's streak and a trip to Western Sydney are all that stand in the way of Melbourne and finals. But like every other team, they need to be weary of complacency when facing lower teams.
Games to come:
- Round 19: North Melbourne (BA)
- Round 20: GWS (UNSW)
- Round 21: St Kilda (MCG)
- Round 22: Brisbane (MCG)
- Round 23: Collingwood (MCG)
8.ย Essendon (9 W, 8 L)
Essendon are the first of four teams at 9-8. A vital game against fellow top eight aspirants the Western Bulldogs looms this weekend. A loss for either team would not necessarily kill off all finals hopes, but it would make it extremely difficult.
Games to come:
- Round 19:ย Western Bulldogsย (ES)
- Round 20: Carlton (MCG)
- Round 21: Adelaide (ES)
- Round 22: Gold Coast (MS)
- Round 23: Fremantle (ES)
9.ย West Coast Eaglesย (9 W, 8 L)
The only thing consistent about West Coast's form line has been its inconsistency. If they continue as they have been, they will almost certainly miss finals. One more trip to Melbourne remains to take on St Kilda, as well as a trip to Spotless Stadium to face the Giants. The Eagles will not make finals on current form.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Brisbane (DS)
- Round 20: St Kilda (ES)
- Round 21: Carlton (DS)
- Round 22: GWS (SPO)
- Round 23: Adelaide (DS)
10.ย Western Bulldogsย (9 W, 8 L)
The Bulldogs can certainly make a late finals run but will realistically become the first premiership side to miss finals the following year since Hawthorn in 2009. This weekend's game against fellow 9-8 side Essendon will be hugely influential in the final composition of the eight. They will also need a big win over Brisbane to overcome the percentage gap.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Essendon (ES)
- Round 20: Brisbane (G)
- Round 21: GWS (ES)
- Round 22: Port Adelaide (MSB)
- Round 23: Hawthorn (ES)
11.ย St Kildaย (9 W, 8 L)
Two weeks ago, St Kilda sat seventh on the ladder and looked like they could mount a serious challenge for a top four spot. Two consecutive defeats now sees them in danger of missing the finals entirely. They should start favourites in their Round 20 and 22 games against West Coast and North Melbourne but it won't be enough, particularly given their poor percentage.
Games to come:
- Round 19: Port Adelaide (AO)
- Round 20: West Coast (ES)
- Round 21: Melbourne (MCG)
- Round 22: North Melbourne (ES)
- Round 23: Richmond (MCG)
12.ย Hawthorn (7 W, 9 L, 1 D)
Hawthorn's best hope for an unlikely finals berth is if all of the teams above them collapse spectacularly.
- Round 19: Sydney (MCG)
- Round 20: Richmond (MCG)
- Round 21: North Melbourne (US)
- Round 22: Carlton (ES)
- Round 23:ย Western Bulldogsย (ES)
