In the wake of their seventh and most recent victory of the season, a forgettable 25-point win over the lowly Richmond Tigers, North Melbourne have been praised.
It's their most wins in a season since 2019, and finals, courtesy of the introduction of the Wildcard Round, feel like a distinct and likely possibility.
I watched that Tigers game through gritted teeth. It wasn't an advertisement for our great game, nor did it instil great confidence that North are finally fearsome once again.
Unable to shake such a feeling, I took a look under the hood, and had the foundations of my hunch reinforced.
14 games is an ample sample size for conclusions to be drawn about their profile. Sure, winning papers over cracks, but the manner of victory and quality of opponent simply have to factor into views formed around a club that has spent the better part of a decade languishing in and anchored to a fatiguing irrelevance.
Per the Wheelo Ratings formula, this North Melbourne outfit is the 15th ranked side in the competition, with only West Coast, the two-win Tigers and the one-win Essendon Bombers below them.
West Coast are better defensively, leaving the Kangaroos 16th in that facet of the game.
They're not an elite scoring side either, registering below the AFL average for points scored per game.
"But Harro!" I hear you say. "North's greatest strength is their midfield, so how are they going in that part of the ground?"
They're treading water, but plenty of metrics need improvement if this side is to qualify for finals for the first time since Brent Harvey was still running around.
Tristan Xerri is widely acknowledged as one of the league's premier ruckmen, although the rule changes don't exactly align with his arsenal as seamlessly as they do for others.
Still, the touted on-ball brigade made up of an eye-watering amount of high-end draft picks fail to capitalise on the hitouts the headgear-sporting Xerri does manage. The Roos are fifth-last for hitout to clearance percentage in the land.
They're ninth in the league for total clearances, but dead last for post-clearance contested possessions. It's clearance or bust for the Roos tasked with roving ruck contests.
North aren't great at winning the pill, and aren't great at spending it, either. They've managed the fourth-fewest contested possessions per game and the third-fewest metres gained per game this season. It's hardly a profile that inspires the imagination or instils belief.
But let's focus on their defence for a beat.
I am of the school of thought that defence goes beyond the back six or seven tasked with stymieing the opposition's forwards each week. As such, I'm holding the entire side accountable for the lack of want without the ball. The Roos are dead last for pressure acts in the league. There's no desperation about this mob, despite years of hearing their opposition's song after the final siren far more often than they hear their own.
That aforementioned brigade of backmen do have a lot to answer for, too.
The Kangaroos are dead last in the AFL for defensive one-on-one win percentage, despite being second in that same metric, offensively. One would assume exposure to some of the best forwards in the league in one-on-one situations year-round at training would have some sort of advantage. Iron sharpening iron, and whatnot. No such luck for Kangaroo supporters.
North Melbourne are also dead last in the AFL for intercept possessions. A side incapable of forcing turnovers and winning the ball back, that also can't defend one-on-one entries is a recipe for disaster, and its one that combines to give the Kangaroos unwanted slices of history, frequently.
This season's Kangaroos became the first side to concede 100+ in six straight games since themselves in 2024, who were the first side to do it since themselves, in 2023, per @sirswampthing on X.
They notched that rare piece of mediocrity in their recent and entire humbling at the hands of the rampaging Fremantle Dockers, and can expect their subpar defensive profile to produce similar results if nothing changes between now and future meetings with the more polished and damaging sides.
The AFL, in all of its benevolent grace, however, have ensured that such meetings are few and far between for Alastair Clarkson's band of merry joeys.
North Melbourne's seven wins have come against Port Adelaide, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond (twice), Gold Coast and West Coast (who they also, lost to in their first meeting of the year).
Those sides currently populate the bottom five rungs of the ladder, with the exception of the Gold Coast, who are ninth. Admittedly, they were knocking on the door of the top four when the Kangaroos sunk their proverbial paws into them.
North have played the West Coast Eagles twice, the Richmond Tigers twice, and their next fortnight contains second matches for the year against the lowly Bombers and Power.
That's four double-ups against the competition's poorest sides before their first meetings with fellow finals fancies the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne Demons, St Kilda Saints and Hawthorn Hawks, and Wildcard hopefuls, Collingwood. Gosh that's a handy head start.
The Roos have, comfortably, the worst percentage of any side in the top 10 at the time of writing, and only the bottom three sides in the competition have a worse percentage than Alastair Clarkson's charges.
They are 1-5 in their six matches against finals teams, with a percentage in those matches worse than Essendon's, and only better than Richmond's and West Coast's.
It's almost impressive, given they've managed that feat despite playing the outright fewest matches against finalists in the competition. Everyone else has played at least seven.
All of this is to say let's collectively pump the brakes in our effusive praise of the job Clarkson is doing helming this club. The handiest of home runs gifted the club in the form of their fixture is going too far in covering up the picture of deficiency the numbers paint.
