Essendon's search for a new coach leads two ways: It is James Hird or another gamble?
He has suffered the same rejection from the AFL as his two other fellow Brownlow Medallists, superstars and club captains Michael Voss and Nathan Buckley did in their first-up start in coaching.
These three players were, in my mind, destined for failure in their first attempts at senior coaching. All three fell for the belief that being some of the best players in their generation, coaching was a natural progression and a "given" as they were so blessed as players.
The rude shock for them all was that coaching is very different in nearly every way than looking after yourself and at times carrying your team to victory on the field. At least on the field you have some control on what you can do.
I have been mates and teammates of all three. They are all great to be around and love Australian rules football as much as is physically and mentally possible.
I feel having the playing record they did, the biggest problem they faced was the perception all three should have all the answers when things go wrong. That is just fantasy.
To Vossy's credit, he has been incredibly resilient. His first outing as coach for his old side, the Brisbane Lions, was in many ways a mitigated disaster. An experience full of learnings and some of them would have been painful.
He eventually found his way to Port Adelaide and built up his coaching experience 10-fold. It was an assistant's role which he now admits he should have done from the beginning.
While his time has ended at Carlton, I have no doubt he was a different man and coach the second time around.
Bucks was the chosen one, anointed by then Collingwood president Eddie McGuire to be their coach. He did change a lot over his time as coach and took them to a kick of winning the competition in 2018 against the West Coast Eagles.
After working in the media for many years he is back building up his knowledge at one of the best clubs in the game in Geelong. We will see if he becomes Tassie's first coach in the next year or so as their search continues. No doubt he will be better second time around. There is no better lesson in life than the school of hard knocks.
Essendon clearly wanted to avoid the same issues Brisbane and Collingwood had with Vossy and Bucks by helping Hirdy with experienced former coach of Geelong and former Bomber's captain Mark "Bomber" Thompson.
It was a much more palatable and successful process. Then came the peptides.
Essendon's punishment was extreme. The Bombers were fined $2 million, booted out of the finals and stripped of early draft picks.
It is an understatement to say 13 years on that the whole saga was as overblown as COVID.
Peptides are everywhere now and are nothing more than amino acids used to help the body's natural processes to be improved - 99 percent of what ASADA and the AFL found were within the rules.
Trying new things is one thing but bending the rules a bit is another. The image of the game needed to be protected so the bending of the rules (and possibly the breaking of some) it was perceived to be.
Some would agree that many felt the club and players were trying to find an edge legally. Scapegoats were needed and it left a lot of good men and players holding the baby of a crime that wasn't of their making.
Lots has changed since then for Hirdy. A marriage breakdown, attempted suicide from sleeping pills and more soul searching for a player who was once the golden of golden boys within the AFL landscape. He has been back involved in footy and his knowledge base and coaching understanding has never been better.
Hirdy has backing from former teammates and mate, current president, Andrew Welsh. It never hurts but doesn't guarantee the job is his.
Which gets us to the other question. If not Hird, then who? While Dean Solomon hasn't put his name up in lights many others have. Josh Fraser's job with Carlton has provided at least in the real world that he can coach.
Looking at Essendon, while Brad Scott was there, it was clear to many that his choices of very inexperienced coaches to work with was an issue.
Assistant coaches provide a lot more than many will know. They influence game plans, training standards and help players to improve and develop physically and most importantly mentally.
Essendon's new coach will want to bring in people that can help them coach and the group to be the extension of what is needed for success.
Who would I pick if I were Essendon? I think the choices of candidates is plenty. I think in the end there are four coaches think will be in their sights outside of Hirdy.
They are James Rahilly, James Kelly (both have extensive experience in quality roles in quality clubs) along with Cameron Bruce and Dale Morris.
While I can provide only a little intimate knowledge on the two Jameses, I know many who work with them and they all agree they have what it will take to be senior coaches at the AFL level.
Cameron the Bruce and "Mozz" Morris have been wonderful for two-time premiership club the Brisbane Lions.
Bruce has been more senior and runs a lot of the program with the Lions senior team. Chris Fagan will do some drills but only when he knows it is needed.
Bruce, "Mozz" and the team in the box have shown they can make the game day moves and tweak game plans when needed week to week to provide the Lions with a chance to win the game. Something I felt they needed to do better around mid-2023.
I know the names Bruce and Morris haven't been mentioned by much of the media with their resumes and experience in such a successful program as the Lions have had. I think both will be senior AFL coaches in the not too distant future if not sooner.
In the end let me try and nail the last three spots as an educated guess if you will.
For mine I would think it will be between Hirdy, James Kelly and Cameron Bruce. Who knows, they all may be working together at Essendon if I had to pick. May the best man win.
The coach is just the start for Essendon. As any great coach will know. You are only as good as the players you have. That is a story for another day.
I think they need much more than a new coach! The Essendon arrogance is deeply rooted and holds them back everywhere. Its a shame that this once powerhouse has lost so much credit because of it. A redemptional Hird would be a good start.