Is it 2014 again?

At the time of writing, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle occupy the AFL ladder's coveted top four positions, just as they did all those years ago.

The Cats and Swans - two sides who have sent ominous warnings across the bow of the competition before the calendar even says "Winter" in 2026, face off on Saturday afternoon, at Fortress Geelong.

Across 732 games at the venue, Geelong boast a winning percentage nudging 70 per cent. You'd be hard pressed to find an opposition player who's taken the field at the Cattery who doesn't bear mental scars of the trauma inflicted by this powerhouse of a club.

GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - MAY 11: Geelong Cats Head Coach Chris Scott gives instructions during the round nine AFL match between Geelong Cats and GWS Giants at GMHBA Stadium on May 11, 2025 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - MAY 11: Geelong Cats Head Coach Chris Scott gives instructions during the round nine AFL match between Geelong Cats and GWS Giants at GMHBA Stadium on May 11, 2025 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Sydney, on the other hand, have not always enjoyed their trips to the stadium, conceding 100 points at the venue 27 times, with only West Coast (28 times) and St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs (30 each) doing so more than the men in red and white.

Ahead of the next meeting between two clubs who define professionalism from an organisational standpoint, take a look at some of the numbers that characterise their success this season - the numbers that may well determine Saturday's victor, and the season's premier.

Metre marauders

Both sides have embraced the territory game, sitting entrenched in the top three teams for total metres gained.

The Cats and Swans have also been at the forefront of the handball revolution gripping the code. The Swans average an AFL-best 3.9 metres/handball, while the Cats are fourth in the league, averaging 2.8 metres/handball.

The Swans 'play on at all costs' mentality is evidenced by their marking numbers. This side is not interested in controlling possession in long, sleepy chains - they average the least marks in the league.

The Cats have modes, and one of them is control, particularly in their back half. They're seventh in the league for marks per game, taking 95.4 per contest.

Nick Blakey is one of the drivers of the Swans' ball movement, and looks in sublime touch of late. Look for him to again dictate the pace with which Sydney attack this contest, and whether or not master coach Chris Scott will allow him the room to do so.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 09: Nick Blakey of the Swans runs with the ball during the round nine AFL match between North Melbourne Kangaroos and Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, on May 09, 2026, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 09: Nick Blakey of the Swans runs with the ball during the round nine AFL match between North Melbourne Kangaroos and Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, on May 09, 2026, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Good in the guts

Both sides can win the ball when it's in dispute. Both engine rooms have grunt, class on the outside, and all the intangibles you want in such a combative sport.

The Swans are equal-second in the league for total clearances per game, while the Cats are equal-ninth (37.4 to 35.3).

Both sides are top four in the league for scores from stoppages, separated by just half a point.

One of the true points of difference from their profiles, however, is an ability to defend centre contest loss - Geelong average the fewest points in the league conceded from centre ball-up, while the Swans are ninth.

James Rowbottom - the hard nosed barometer for the boys from the Harbour City - will meet his match in the grizzly, strictly-business Tom Atkins, which begs one question:

Can the other Swans midfielders run as hard defensively as they do in attack? 

GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 26: Izak Rankine of the Crows tackles Tom Atkins of the Cats during the round three AFL match between Geelong Cats and Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, on March 26, 2026, in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 26: Izak Rankine of the Crows tackles Tom Atkins of the Cats during the round three AFL match between Geelong Cats and Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, on March 26, 2026, in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

Bang for buck

Chris Scott's men make the most of their looks at the big sticks, ranking second in the league for scores per inside.

Dean Cox's side have work to do in this area, with their front half still not exactly clicking the way they'd hoped after acquiring dual Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow in the off-season. They're below AFL average in this space, scoring from 44.6% of their inside 50s. Surprisingly, sides like Carlton and North Melbourne are more efficient in this space.

In a game tipped to be close, at a venue Geelong typically dominate, the Swans, and Charlie, will need to be better.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 05: Charlie Curnow of the Swans celebrates kicking his second goal during the opening round AFL match between Sydney Swans and Carlton Blues at SCG, on March 05, 2026, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 05: Charlie Curnow of the Swans celebrates kicking his second goal during the opening round AFL match between Sydney Swans and Carlton Blues at SCG, on March 05, 2026, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Turnover titans

The Swans punish sides that give them the ball back, scoring the most points from turnover in the competition. Geelong are fifth in this metric.

Not content with just being punishing when they have the ball, the Swans are suffocating when they cough it up, allowing the least points from turnover in the league. Geelong sit sixth in this metric fewest, allowing seven points more than the Swans from turnover. A negligible difference, some may argue, but seven points in a game tipped to be close, could be all important.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION