Last Season
West Coast had high hopes in 2017, despite being without their franchise player Nic Naitanui due to a ruptured ACL. After adding former Hawthorn champion Sam Mitchell to what looked like one of the best midfields in the league alongside Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey, they had reason to be bullish.
But in between the 50-meter arcs, West Coast was the second-worst contested possession team, marginally ahead of wooden spooners Brisbane. Priddis was their only true inside midfielder, while the others are outside midfielders.
The loss of Naitanui was severe, who may be more important to West Coast than any player is to their respective side. He is a contested beast that gives his midfielders first use at the stoppage and creates a flow on effect. This allows West Coast to play their famous territory game, a style Gerard Healy labelled the ‘Weagles Web’ that took them to a grand final in 2015.
The Eagles still managed to swoop into the finals by 0.49 percent after defeating the Crows in the final game of the home and away season. They won a heart-stopping final against Port Adelaide that went into extra time but were beaten badly by GWS the following week.
Despite what the results said, the consensus was that West Coast weren’t necessarily deserving of their September appearance last year after a patchy home and away season.
Off Season grade
In: Brendon Ah Chee, Jarrod Brander (pick 13), Oscar Allen (pick 21), Liam Ryan (pick 26), Brayden Ainsworth (pick 32), Jack Petruccelle (pick 38), Hamish Brayshaw (pick 68)
Out: Paddy Brophy, Sam Butler, Sam Mitchell, Drew Petrie, Matt Priddis, Jonathan Giles, Simon Tunbridge, Sharrod Wellingham, Josh Hill, Tom Lamb, Tom Gorter, Jordan Snadden
Major off-field moves: Senior assistant Justin Longmuir (Collingwood) and midfield and stoppages coach Dean Cox (Sydney) have each departed for news clubs. Sam Mitchell has joined the coaching team after retiring, and Nathan van Berlo has crossed from Adelaide.
Off season grade: D
The Eagles turned over more than a quarter of their list as some big names called an end to their careers. It appears they are trying to rebuild on the run given they traded for an assortment of draft picks from Gold Coast, but it did cost them their 2018 first-round pick. Given their potential fall from grace this season, that pick could fall in the top five.
Brendan Ah Chee is talented and adds midfield depth, but their outs are more significant than their ins. Last year’s side was better but topped out with a second-round finals exit. There is not much to get excited about here.
Defining period
West Coast open the season at the brand-new Perth Stadium against Sydney and play five of their first seven games there. Additionally, three of those seven opponents finished in the bottom five last year, so they will want to hit the ground running and it is very possible for them to be 5-2 at that point.
Things get tougher from there, as they play the GWS away and Richmond at home. The second half of the year will also test the West Coast, where they play Sydney, Adelaide and Port Adelaide away. A strong start is crucial to their prospects, but we will learn a lot about them through the middle part of the season.
Champion Data Suggests…
Despite the retirements and delisting’s of Mitchell, Priddis, Sam Buter, Sharrod Wellingham and Josh Hill, West Coast still ranks eighth for games experience and 10th in age.
The top end strength of the Eagles is behind centre. This area kept the team in many games throughout 2017 and helped them to make the finals. They boast three elite defenders and one above average defender. Jeremy McGovern, Elliot Yeo and Shannon Hurn all rate elite.
In 2018 the Eagles welcome back Naitanui. No team relies on one player more than this team. He will improve a midfield that needs improvement. They rank 15th in quality in the midfield with Shuey their only midfielder in the top 35 percent of that position. Shuey needs support.
The forward line works, but is it because of one man – Josh Kennedy? He is elite, kicking 60 plus goals in every one of the last five seasons. All his best work is done in the forward 50. He marks it, he wins it at ground level and he is an accurate kick. The next ranked forward is Mark LeCras, but both these players are 30 plus years of age. Who is coming through?
So there are questions, can Daniel Venables live up to his early draft selection? Can Jake Waterman replace Kennedy when required? Is Willie Rioli up to AFL standard? Can Jarrod Brander, Oscar Allen and Liam Ryan get up to standard quickly? There are lots of unknowns with this group. Fingers crossed Kennedy holds on for another few years yet.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Defence is the Eagles’ backbone and they ranked number one in the competition for intercept marks per game in 2017. They live up to their name with aerial specialists McGovern, Yeo, Hurn and Tom Barrass all rating elite for intercept marks. All this with a side that applied the third-lowest amount of pressure. Imagine the damage these guys could do if there was pressure on the ball carrier further up the ground.
Adam Simpson created the famous defensive web two years ago which oppositions have since imitated and used against him. Now it is over to Simpson to re-master the web and attack the competition with a new strategy. With Naitanui back in the team, his midfield will get first use more frequently, which will create boundless opportunities to trap the ball in their forward half and score.
Weaknesses
The Eagles ranked 16th for pressure applied in the competition in 2017. The AFL average for pressure last season was 181. The Eagles went at 177. It is no coincidence that the last two premiers, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, were both tremendous pressure sides and you will not win many games without it.
The midfield contested possession differential is also a concern, as the Eagles ranked 17th in 2017. West Coast have ranked bottom-four in midfield groundball differential in three of the past four seasons. The one year they ranked positive was 2015, the year they made the grand final. These issues must be rectified for the Eagles to be competitive in 2018.
Prediction
12th
The Eagles have gone backwards the past two years and this trend is likely to continue in 2018, only the drop off could be more drastic. After losing some key players through retirement and delistings, they are now relying on lesser names and inexperience to carry the mantle.
The return of Naitanui will certainly help, but it is hard to see West Coast making the eight with so many other budding teams streaking up the ladder. Working in their favour is the fact that they possess elite talent in every area of the ground, including the premier key forward of the competition, but the Eagles cannot rely on Kennedy to single handily kick them a winning score.
Simpson leads a new-look coaching panel that will put their heads together to try and keep this side afloat, but even the Alastair Clarksons and Paul Roos' of the world would struggle to get this team into finals.
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