Last Season
In a year that many fans hoped would be the one that saw Collingwood return to September, all hopes of that were basically dashed when Collingwood only managed to win two of their first eight games to begin 2017.
After a morale boosting win over Hawthorn that sparked a mini revival, Collingwood were able to recuperate to be 5-6 after 11 rounds to get their season back on track.That is as good as it got however, losing their next four games all at the MCG to put Nathan Buckley's job and their finals series on ice.
After winning three and drawing one in their next four, their finals run was again back alive, however two losses to end the season sealed their fate. Having bettered their 2016 total by two points, the Pies still finished one position lower to continue their slide under current coach Nathan Buckley.
The questionable recruitment of injury prone midfielder Daniel Wells, who missed several games through injury, and forward Chris Mayne, who failed to justify the hefty pay packet he was received in the previous free agency period, were key reasons why Collingwood had such a poor season. Their inability to kick a winning score, considering the amount of forward 50 entries they had, was also a key contributor to their poor season.
Off Season Grade
In: Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson (Pick 6), Nathan Murphy (Pick 39), Tyler Brown (Pick 50)
Out: Lachie Keeffe, Henry Schade
Off season Grade: C-
It was a very strange trade period for the Pies, as they could only manage to bring in Sam Murray from Sydney, a player who has been on the Swans' rookie list, having failed to play a game, yet the Pies still managed to give up a future second round pick for him. The failure to bring in a key forward to help the burden on Darcy Moore and inconsistent Mason Cox didn't sit well with the Collingwood supporters. The drafting of Jayden Stephenson looks like a good selection, with reports suggesting that he has had an impressive pre-season.
Defining Period
Collingwood has been handed a very pleasing fixture for 2018. They face double up games against Carlton, Brisbane and Fremantle, where they only play two top 12 teams twice; bitter rivals Essendon and Richmond. They have 14 matches at the MCG and they only have to travel five times - which is the equal fewest in the competition.
A tough first six games to open the year sees the Pies play GWS, Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon, along with Hawthorn and Carlton, with all but the Adelaide game being played at the MCG. However, rounds seven to 15 will determine whether the Pies play finals.
They play Geelong (MCG) in a tough encounter where they will also come up against fellow mid table fancies St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium) and Melbourne (MCG). They will also play Carlton (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), Brisbane (Gabba) and Fremantle (MCG) in this nine-week stretch. There are at least seven winnable games for the Pies, that could make or break their season.
Champion Data Suggests...
Champion Data suggests that Collingwood's need for a tall could not be as disastrous if they experiment and spread their resources more.
After an uneventful trade period, Champion Data suggests that positional shake up for some players may be on the cards.
They have suggested that maybe Collingwood should trial Levi Greenwood as a permanent midfielder, a role he thrived in, in his last year at the Roos.
He only averaged 16 disposals, one clearance and 269 meters gained per game in a year off half back last year. With a move to midfield for Greenwood, this could allow elite talent to go forward, like Steele Sidebottom, who ranks highly in loose ball gets and conversion in front of goals.
Champion Data has also suggested that a move to more of an outside role for Adam Treloar, like a spot on the wing, could help the Pies to play more laterally and create more space for the forwards, due to Treloar's elite line breaking ability.
A ploy to implement a smaller forward could work for the Pies this season, if they play elite pressure players like Jarryd Blair and Chris Mayne. Pressure in Collingwood's forward line has been non existent in past years.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths: Collingwood's midfield was able to win eight more contested possessions than their opposition week in week out - ranked second in the competition - where they won the contested ball count 17 times last season, which was ranked number one in the competition.
Collingwood also had the highest amount of possession (43%), while Collingwood's midfield zone averaged 25 more disposals then there opposition last season.
With Brodie Grundy, Daniel Wells, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams, Will Hoskin-Elliot and Tom Phillips being graded as above average, and captain Scott Pendlebury being classified as elite, Collingwood's midfield assets is a massive strength for them this season.
Ruckman Brodie Grundy's ability to win the ball in the air and on the ground is a massive draw card for the Pies. The 23-year-old ranks elite in disposals, contested possessions, uncontested possessions, score launches and score involvements, while ranking above average in clearances. He also won 51% of his ruck duels last season, which improved from 41% the season prior.
Weaknesses: Although the midfield battle is being won by the Pies, fingers are being pointed at their forward line. They ranked 14th last year in goals per entry into the forward line, where on numerous encounters the Collingwood forwards were getting into the wrong position. Last year Collingwood won the inside 50 battle 13 times and only converted it into seven wins for a win rate of 54% compared to the competitions 71%.
The lack of key forwards and forward pressure is a massive flaw in Collingwood's game. Darcy Moore is still developing and may play most of the year down back, where they will be heavily relying on the inconsistent Mason Cox and injury plagued Ben Reid this year.
They may benefit from playing Steele Sidebottom, who has the ability to kick bags of goals and take a mark, or may even benefit by giving Chris Mayne a decent run in the side, who has shown when he was at Fremantle that he was elite at providing much needed forward pressure that Collingwood has been lacking in previous years.
Prediction
13th
After being clear winners from the fixture, the Magpies could be finals bound in 2018. However failing to bring in a key forward in the off season, might see them struggle to kick a winning score.
It'll be interesting to see how Moore plays down back, after training all pre-season with the defence, where it'll be equally interesting to see how Collingwood line up without Darcy Moore in their forward line. They could be 8-6 come the end of Round 15 and looking towards the finals, but that could easily be 6-8 and look like another season without finals for the Pies.
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