The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Adelaide
Path Rating: 6.5/10
The same as Geelong, Adelaide's sixth place finish means they will have to wait to see who their Elimination Final matchup will also be against.
A win will send the Crows straight to a Semi Final matchup with either the Swans or Lions, with a loss ultimately ending their 2026 campaign.
Adelaide have been competitive in every single top 10 matchup so far this year bar against the Lions, losing to four of the top ten sides by only nine points or less.
The Crows will host Melbourne in the second Elimination Final if they beat Carlton or will face the winner of the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood if Carlton win.
Most importantly, Adelaide will have the comfort of playing at home in front of their always passionate home crowd, with the chance of reaching a second consecutive Semi Final.
