The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Melbourne
Path Rating: 6/10
Melbourne won 15 games during the home and away season, exactly the same as the Hawks who finished fourth, but now face a Wildcard Final against Carlton with their season immediately on the line.
They are one of the four sides in the Wildcard Finals who will have to win four games to even make the Grand Final, making their loss to the Bulldogs even more frustrating.
The Demons have to face the brutal reality of the new 10-team finals system after being unable to beat the Western Bulldogs in the last round of the year, where, if they had won, it would have granted them a finish in fifth with a week off and hosting an Elimination Final.
Their clash with Carlton is now arguably the most intriguing of the Wildcard weekend's matches, due to the fact that they are both teams who have shown they are capable of beating the league's best.
The Demons' road is made even more enormous as if they beat Carlton, they will then have to face Adelaide at Adelaide Oval the week after in the Elimination Final, with any loss from this stage knocking them out of contention.
