The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Geelong
Path Rating: 6.5/10
Geelong's fifth place finish means they will have to wait to see who their Elimination Final matchup will be against.
Due to the new finals fixture, this'll be the first time a side will have to wait and see who they will host in an Elimination Final, which will be played at the MCG against the lowest-ranked Wildcard winner.
Geelong will host Carlton if they beat Melbourne or the winner of the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood if Melbourne win. Depending on which team emerges from the Wildcard round, the difficulty of this task could vary considerably.
The Cats' road isn't as simple as those in the top four, but a home Final against a side who have already played a game could prove the difference. They have plenty of finals experience to be considered a serious contender, and a final against a team that has already played in a high-pressure Final is hardly the worst possible scenario.
