The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Hawthorn
Path Rating: 7/10
Hawthorn's situation for finishing fourth is a trip West to face the Minor Premiers in a mouth-watering Qualifying Final.
They did beat West Coast by 62 points in the last game of the home and away season and would've hoped to have finished one spot higher to instead play Sydney, but missed third spot by just 1.6%.
The Hawks will have to beat Fremantle at Optus Stadium to earn the week off and get a home Preliminary Final at the MCG. But a loss will still keep their season alive in a Semi Final matchup.
The Hawks have shown throughout the season they're capable of competing with the competition's best, beating 4 of the top 10 sides, but their Premiership credentials will be tested immediately, facing the Dockers for the first time since losing to them in round nine.
