The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Brisbane
Path Rating: 8/10
Brisbane's reward for finishing third is a trip to the SCG to face the Swans in a Qualifying Final.
This would ordinarily present a pretty daunting challenge; however, the Lions have possibly the best advantage out of every finals side finishing in third, in the fact that they will come up against a severely depleted Sydney Swans side.
Even though the Lions don't have the luxury of a home game to begin their finals campaign, they get the perfect opportunity to send themselves into a home Preliminary Final, being favourites to win the Qualifying Final.
A loss would drop the Lions into a Semi Final clash with the winner of the second Elimination Final between the Crows and the highest-ranked Wildcard winner, which they have won from before in 2024, going on to win the flag.
They've arguably found their best form of the entire year in the last three games, winning three on the trot with a combined winning margin of 172, and have had the second most players selected in the All-Australian squad with six.
A home Preliminary Final couldn't be more on the cards for the Lions, and a chance to go back-back-back is a real opportunity in 2026.
