The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Sydney
Path Rating: 4/10
If you looked at the Swans season on paper, finishing second is almost the perfect result.
Sydney get a home Qualifying Final at the SCG against Brisbane on a Saturday afternoon, with a win sending the Swans straight to a second home Preliminary Final in three years.
However, as we all know, their path is much more complicated than it should be.
The Swans will enter September without the likes of superstars Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Nick Blakey, as well as James Jordan and Riley Bice, who have all been suspended by the club for the remainder of the 2026 season.
Sydney's theoretical advantage of finishing second doesn't tell the whole story as they will face the in-form back-to-back premiers coming off a 63-point win, without five of their usual starting 23 players.
A home Qualifying Final is still a huge opportunity, but the Swans' depth will be tested in a way it has never been before. The likes of All-Australian selected squad member Brodie Grundy, Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow, Errol Gulden and Tom Papley help their cause, but the omissions are glaring.
The road is favourable with their ladder position, but the personnel available obviously are not.
