Stevo's List: Ranking AFL clubs on who is closest to a flag from 18 to 1

Footy is built on hope. Fans have to BELIEVE. Premierships are getting tougher to win, simply due to the basic mathematics, but we must be able to dream. With one winner from 18 clubs, about to become one from 19 in the Tassie era, it's a brutal race. The draft and competitive balance is here to give every fan a chance at glory, right? The reality is, some clubs are a looooong way off. Who is closest? Who is seemingly light years away from the AFL's ultimate prize? I've tackled the difficult task of ranking clubs in order of who is closest to a premiership right now and who remains in a different galaxy ... from 18th (the longest distance from glory) to first. Here we go: ESSENDON It is difficult to mount an argument to have Essendon anywhere else but rock bottom right now. I am backing in president Andrew Welsh to get it right eventually, but there are so many club-wide issue to get right first before what will be a slow rebound. Sure, the Bombers have promising kids, but are burdened by gaping list holes in both the middle-age area and top-end. Winning a final would be nice. The mountain just seems so high at the moment. PORT ADELAIDE The president David Koch is adamant Power doesn't rebuild. Of course they must and they are doing so. With Zak Butters heading out the door and speculation about the future of Mitch Georgiades, Power is desperately low on game-changing talent. That will take time to change, even if they will be lucky enough to snare Dougie Cochrane, the nominal No.1 pick, as an NGA player. RICHMOND I've pushed the Tigers out of the bottom two, simply because they have an array of kids. That gives them a chance. Trouble is, we don't know how good those kids are. Injuries have conspired against the club, so it's hard to get an accurate read at this stage. But questions about the kids are real. Right now, on all evidence tabled, you can't say with any confidence the Tigers have nailed it at the draft. COLLINGWOOD On list profile alone right now, you could argue the Pies are further away than anyone. I am tempering those thoughts though because Collingwood is Collingwood: A massive club invariably able to find a way. The Pies are eyeing Lachie Neale and are always a chance in the free agency market given their marquee status, so they can be capable of conjuring an "artificial" bounce - one not through the usual natural draft channels. GWS They've been stiff, the Giants. They've deserved a flag for continually knocking on the door. In hindsight, 2016 was the one that got away - and rarely have they stopped contending. But the reality is, they are slipping out of contention, particularly if the spiritual king Toby Greene leaves. On top of that, Jesse Hogan's rotten run of luck continues. It is difficult to see the Giants improving much next year, and with the constant threat of other clubs cherry-picking players, a much-deserved premiership is edging further away. WEST COAST Boy, it's been grim over west for too long now. There is, though, signs of life via the natural sugar hit the draft provides. Harley Reid and Willem Duursma are good enough to launch a new era and shot at it. Cooper Duff-Tytler has some Sam Darcy about him too, so there is much to like. With another early pick to come and progression likely, the Eagles are suddenly closer than a cluster of rivals. CARLTON Credit to the Blues for conjuring a five-game winning streak, which should become seven. But where is the list at? In terms of winning a flag, mid-range at best. Patrick Cripps is running out of time, Jacob Weitering's career is getting to the twilight zone and there's hardly a bevy of elite kids in waiting. It's mainly the older types getting it done right now. The Blues are in a solid situation, but it is difficult to envisage a new wave of Blues taking this club to the promised land in a hurry. Jagga Smith is an emerging superstar, but it will take more than Jagga. NORTH MELBOURNE The Kangaroos are under-achieving. On paper, with the help of top end picks and talent, they should be higher on the ladder (particularly given their ridiculously generous fixture). Under that theory, with improvement to come amid their emerging midfield, I can see the Kangas bouncing next year - and again the year after. If the coach Al Clarkson can get them humming, they have to be a chance of at least contending for top four in the next three years. There is no excuse given the draft hand they have had after years of poor performance. There is hope. There has to be. Given list composition they should be higher on this list, but questions remain. It's time they got it done! ST KILDA I'm more bullish on the Saints than some. The draft collection looks OK, even if three high picks are in the VFL (and one suspended). In Tom De Koning, they have a long-term ruckman, "Nas" will be a once in a generation game changer as long as the club can keep him and there has been improvement in mid-tier players. The Saints need two things to happen - No.1 Max King finally returning and No.2 The recruitment of another tall forward to support him - and they might be a chance to have a shot at it in the next three to four years while Cal Wilkie is still running around. I am a believer in Alix Tauru, despite his silly brushes with the footy law, and he could lead a resurgence. Better placed than some, the Saints. GOLD COAST This was supposed to be the year, and it hasn't clicked. Something is amiss and is it just complacency after last season's finals breakthrough? A feeling it was just going to happen? The Suns are reasonably high here because they are still a whiff of making a charge this year given the talent on the list. But it is only a whiff. If it doesn't happen this year, and the players mooted to be looking around leave, they will be much lower on this list. Suddenly they are vulnerable. It is why the final two months of the season are MASSIVE. ADELAIDE The Crows are thereabouts and should be for some time. If you keep knocking, the door invariably opens. The skipper Jordan Dawson is still young enough to lead the charge for a while yet and they need Riley Thilthorpe to become the player he was threatening to be last season. Add Zac Bailey to the midfield and you have a list capable of striking in the next three years. It might even happen this year, but midfield silk is probably going to hold the Crows back. Operation "Get Bailey" is required. MELBOURNE The Dees would have been much lower if this list was done at the start of the season. There was a real "one step back to take two steps forward" feel about the year. A mini-rebuild. Instead, it is been a turbo-charged re-tool and there is no reason why the Demons can't contend next year and beyond if Max Gawn stays fit and fresh. With Kossie Pickett and a raft of kids blossoming, I am bullish on Melbourne. An A grade key forward is the missing link. Snare one of those and anything is possible in a hurry. WESTERN BULLDOGS They're an interesting one, the Dogs. It's not going to happen this year, given Sam Darcy's absence, but it doesn't mean they are not close. So much is riding on the pursuit of Zak Butters. If the Dogs land their man they will immediately be a flag contender next season - particularly if Darcy is back up and firing (we can forget how good that bloke is). Add a key back, maybe a Jordon Butts, and the Dogs are in it up to their eyeballs in 2027 if it all falls into place. BRISBANE LIONS For the Lions, putting them at five is all about 2026. They are still a silly chance to win it, because you just can't write them off. Some may not be be convinced about next year and beyond, but they could still bounce back in 2027 regardless given the young talent still up north. Short-term, they are still there hovering this year with so much finals experience so they have to be in the mix high up on this list. GEELONG You can never write off the Cats and the further we get on this list, the more it is about this season. They were impressive in pushing Fremantle in Perth and have the nous and weaponry to make a play for another Grand Final. I have them fourth favourite for the flag right now, so fourth on this list it is. Simple. SYDNEY The Swans have been exhilarating all season, and beginning to get all their troops back. They will play in a preliminary final. Hence, they have to be close to a flag! I'll place them third, because I am backing my curve-ball flag choice to get it done. FREMANTLE An absolute powerhouse, the Dockers. From here, it would be a disaster not to make a Grand Final. A sudden change of injury luck (they're blessed at the moment) and perhaps Hawthorn in a preliminary final at Optus Stadium are the only things that could go wrong. I also have an asterisk on their ability to win at the G on the big day. Let's see. HAWTHORN I called it on Zero Hanger's Six Points podcast weeks ago, and I am sticking fat. I think Hawthorn will win the flag, hence the Hawks are No.1 on this list. There is something about the Hawks - a sprinkle of magic and lashings of hardness which can get it done. Will Day is back to add panache to the midfield, and the key forwards will only get better. They need Jack Gunston back, but Nick Watson is good enough on his own. I also have supreme faith in the coach Sam Mitchell. I am all in on the Hawks.

		P	W	L	PTS	%
1	FRE	14	13	1	52	144.4
2	SYD	15	12	3	48	135.7
3	HAW	15	10	4	42	113.7
4	GEEL	15	9	6	36	120.6
5	ADEL	14	9	5	36	113.2
6	BL	15	9	6	36	111
7	MELB	15	9	6	36	104.2
8	WB	15	9	6	36	92.8
9	GC	14	7	7	28	105.3
10	NMFC	14	7	7	28	90.7

Stevo’s List: Ranking AFL clubs on who is closest to a flag from 18 to 1

All fans need hope so who can start dreaming now of a premiership?

1HAWTHORN

JOIN THE DISCUSSION

Latest News

FULL TIME: Hawthorn vs GWS – Round 16, 2026

FINAL TEAMS: Hawthorn vs GWS – Round 16, 2026

Injury news: Coleman Medallist could miss remainder of AFL season

AFL Teams Round 16 2026: Confirmed line-ups, ins and outs

Carlton star suffers another injury setback

FOLLOW US