Consider this scenario: Collingwood wins a premiership; they have this freakish generational ball-winning machine on their list; the further they move from the flag, the harder they try to stay relevant through stopgap recruiting. They acquire role-players from other clubs. Their drafting is mixed and - courtesy of a lack of top-end picks - speculative. Some of the players look okay, but will any of them be elite?
As the years pass, the playing list grows increasingly problematic. The club seeks Moneyball options. Flag heroes decline, age out, or are traded. Others have terrible injury runs, and never realise the potential they displayed in their flag year. Their generational freak remains a generational freak, and shoulders more and more of the burden weekly, but it's obviously becoming a lone and desperate hand.
I watched this occur week in, week out, year in, year out, from 1994. Nathan Buckley was the most prized signature in the country. Collingwood secured it. But for as good as 'Bucks' was, the team steadily deteriorated around him.
Premiership heroes like Mick McGuane and Tony Francis suffered injuries that depreciated their contributions, with McGuane eventually and ingloriously leaving; Tony Shaw, Craig Kelly, Michael Christian, Graeme Wright, among others, retired; recycled players, such as Glenn Freeborn, Ricky Olarenshaw, Scott Crowe, Alex McDonald, Justin Staritski, Richard Osborne, etc., were brought in; while young talent such as Jason Wild, Luke Godden, Craig Jacotine, etc., were found wanting at league level.
Collingwood were premiers in 1990 and had a young-enough list that they should've contended into - the very least - the mid-1990s. With good management, they might've remained competitive throughout the decade. Instead, they were wooden spooners in 1999.
Enter Mick Malthouse, who aggressively turned over the list, and had the side in a grand final in 2002. Think about that. Buckley was mocked for choosing Collingwood because he wanted to play in finals, and then outside of the one final in his debut year at the Pies (1994), he wouldn't play in finals again until 2002. In 2003, he played in another finals campaign. He won the Brownlow. He would've seemed at the top of the game. But, soft tissue injuries plagued him throughout 2004-05. In 2006, he was managed as a permanent forward. He missed the bulk of 2007 with a recurring hamstring problem.
And, that was it. He was done.
I know it's popular to mock Buckley for his ill-fated choice, but he's one of the best midfielders I've ever seen. He doesn't get the due he deserves. He's always marked down, or harder, than his peers. An example of this is when Buckley dominated the 1990s; critics asserted he only looked good because he stood out in a poor team. When Chris Judd crossed over to Carlton, the same people lauded that he stood out despite being in a poor team.
Buckley was wasted. It happens. End up at the wrong time and wrong club, and you miss out on glory. Look at Chris Newman and Matthew Richardson, who only played in limited finals at Richmond, compared to the players who'd bask in the Tigers' golden period just a few years later. There are plenty of these stories.
With Collingwood, it feels like history's repeating itself. Collingwood's list management has been questionable. Since 2023, they've overpaid for recruits who aren't the difference between contention and flags. They've brought through limited youth. They've recycled to stay competitive. And for what?
Somebody will no doubt point to the 2025 preliminary final and leading at half-time, but that's not a flag, and already that team has had multiple exits (Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott, and now Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom), with others to follow. We've only begun to glimpse the next generation - not through purposeful cultivation, but out of necessity due to injuries.
The coaching staff is much more qualified - Tony Shaw walked into Collingwood the heir apparent, despite a limited apprenticeship. He might've been a good coach had he broadened his knowledge elsewhere. That's not an issue with McRae. Similarly, the administration now is steadier than it was in the late 1990s.
Some will cite McRae as the best coach in the game, or that he's doing wonders with what he has at his disposal. But wonders aren't enough. Collingwood's history is replete with beleaguered coaches - such as Bob Rose, Neil Mann, Tom Hafey, and even Mick Malthouse's early tenure - who dragged cobbled-together sides into finals, only to repeatedly fall short.
Are they going to be able to compete against clubs like Brisbane and Fremantle, who've accumulated elite talent all across the field? It's not relevant how they've done it - some might counter that Brisbane's been lucky with father/sons, etc. It doesn't matter. The talent's there. How do you match up against it?
Zak Butters has turned the Pies down. Lachie Neale is considering his options, but at 34, just how long can he consistently perform at the highest level? Ed Allan's shown a bit this year as a tagger, but not enough offensively. Jordan de Goey continues to frustrate with sporadic output.
Billy Frampton's been a revelation, but his support is two mid-season draftees: Liam Puncher and Noah Howes. Another mid-season draftee, Jack Buller, is a key forward prospect. Their next best midfield prospect, Ned Long, is another mid-season draftee.
There's a lot of speculation at Collingwood – a lot of investing in what might be. Now, obviously, that's the nature of list management. There are no guarantees. But the odds shorten on the better prospects.
As Collingwood's 2023 premiership heroes age out, is the club honest about the calibre of their replacements? They've done well to stay in the hunt through what they've had available, but the hunt just isn't enough. Ultimately, it's win or lose.
Something I'd love to challenge Collingwood with is what their list management would look like if Nick Daicos wasn't there, because right now, he's covering lots of holes.
It would be a shame if they think they're closer than they are, only to squander his talent, just as Nathan Buckley's was squandered.
