13-2. Fewest points conceded. Top two in percentage.
At the Round 16 mark of the 2025 season, Collingwood appears to be etching a path toward premiership glory that echoes their successful tale of 2023. While facing pre-season criticism of their list management, opting to trade draft picks and future concessions for 'aging' talent, the Magpies' off-season retool after missing finals in 2024 has paid major dividends.
With additions of Harry Perryman and Dan Houston, plus the development of young players like Wil Parker, Collingwood's defensive unit has returned to its 2023 elite best. They've been able to cover the loss of Nathan Murphy, whose forced retirement significantly impacted their defence in 2024, conceding an average of 84.5 points per game.
In 2025, they're allowing just 68.4 points per game and are conceding 49.2 inside 50s, three less than 2024. It's a strikingly similar form to where they sat in Round 16 2023, conceding 67.1 points (1st in AFL) and 49.7 inside 50s per game (5th).
Captain Darcy Moore, who also faced plenty of criticism in 2024, is in career-best form in the backline and has contributed significantly to this turnaround, also. His pressure on the contest, either in the air or on the ground, is as high as it has ever been, laying 1.9 tackles and punching 7.1 spoils per game. The aforementioned Perryman is also quietly having his best season since 2023, averaging 13.7 pressure acts and 3.4 tackles per game. He's won 75% of his defensive one-on-one contests this year, above the league average of 73.7%.
Collingwood has also found consistency in their forward line. In 2023, the Pies had six forwards kick at goal with above 50% accuracy (minimum 10 games played), but that fell to just two in 2024. This season they are back up to five, with Jamie Elliott, Tim Membrey, Brody Mihocek, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Dan McStay all converting more often than they miss.
That form has been helping them win games comfortably, with just two wins by two goals or less so far in 2025, kicking more goals than behinds in nine of their fifteen games. That again compares strongly to 2023, where Collingwood had a scoring shot accuracy above 50% ten times by Round 17.
The Magpies might just finish with a better record than what they did in 2023, too, with the 10th-hardest run home from Round 17. In 2023, they had the fifth hardest and ultimately went 5-3 to finish their campaign. Already ten premiership points clear at the top of the table, the minor premiership appears to be theirs to lose.
Only time will tell if the Pies can convert these metrics into a premiership come September, but history is certainly on their side. Teams that rank in the top six for points for and points against have won 18 of the last 20 AFL premierships, and as it stands, Collingwood are well and truly in that window - 1st in points against and 4th in points for.
Collingwood will look to continue their surge toward September and a 20th minor premiership with a win over their old rivals Carlton tonight at 7:20 pm at the MCG.
