In 2024, Richmond secured the number one draft pick and selected promising young talent Sam Lalor, hoping he can help lift the club out of its current slump. This is a pressure that often comes with being the top pick.
These players are usually drafted to struggling teams, where fans pin their hopes on them to help turn things around. But history shows that while some rise to the occasion, others struggle under the weight of expectation.
Some, like Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh, have helped Carlton put its darkest days behind them with their selections proving instrumental in the club's resurgence.
Others, like ex-Demon Jack Watts, serve as cautionary tales, illustrating the burden that can come with being a club's great hope. Once seen as the player who would rescue Melbourne, Watts never lived up to the expectations placed upon him, a stark reminder that the number one pick is no guarantee of success.
So, just how valuable is the number one pick? Does it truly change the fortunes of a club, or is it simply an overhyped selection that doesn't always justify the fanfare?
Looking at the past two decades of number one picks, the evidence suggests the answer is far from straightforward.
Take Nick Riewoldt, the first overall pick in 2000. He is one of the best examples of a number one pick who played a crucial role in transforming his club. St Kilda finished in the bottom four during his first three seasons before climbing into premiership contention.
While he was surrounded by other key draftees including Justin Koschitzke (Pick 2, 2000), Nick Dal Santo (Pick 13, 2001), Leigh Montagna (Pick 37, 2001) and Brendon Goddard (Pick 1, 2002), Riewoldt became the heart of St Kilda's rise.
His dominance was recognised with five All-Australian selections, more than any other number one pick since 2000 and an AFL Players Association MVP - the only number one pick to win the honour.
But cases like Riewoldt are rare. In the entire history of the AFL Draft, only one number one pick has won the Brownlow Medal - Adam Cooney in 2008. The lack of Brownlow winners isn't necessarily an indictment on the value of the top pick, but it does highlight a broader trend that the number one selection rarely produces the league's most decorated individual stars.
This is further reinforced by the fact that not a single number one pick has won the AFL Coaches Association Champion Player of the Year Award either, adding to Riewoldt being the sole AFLPA MVP.
If individual accolades aren't the best measure of the number one pick's impact, then perhaps premiership success is a better indicator. However, even in this category, the results are underwhelming. Since 2000, only three players have won a premiership with the club that drafted them at pick one - Des Headland, Luke Hodge and Cameron Rayner.
Hodge, of course, went on to captain one of the most dominant sides of the modern era, winning four flags with the Hawks. But he is the exception rather than the rule. Tom Boyd, another number one pick, also won a premiership, but only after being traded from GWS to the Western Bulldogs, the team that ultimately defeated his original club in the 2016 preliminary final.
This lack of premiership success among number one picks is significant. While it is true that top selections often go to struggling teams, the fact remains that clubs don't necessarily need a number one pick to build a premiership side.
The Bulldogs' 2016 flag was built on several rookie-drafted players, while Richmond's 2017-2020 dynasty was driven by picks outside the top five.
Meanwhile, some of the best players of the modern era in Nat Fyfe (Pick 20), Patrick Dangerfield (Pick 10) and Dustin Martin (Pick 3) were not number one selections.
So, is the number one pick actually worth it? The answer depends on perspective. There are certainly players who justify the hype and, in rare cases, they can become the backbone of a club's success.
While success and accolades may not catch the eye, the number one selection from the National Draft does boast the best return for average games played at 156.9, with Pick 2 being the next best with 138.1 games per player.
But history suggests that the number one pick is not a golden ticket to premierships or individual greatness. If anything, the draft is a reminder that while talent is important, development, culture and recruiting beyond the first selection are just as crucial to long-term success.
