Geelong and Collingwood keep their top-six chances alive.
Will Sydney hold off Hawthorn and Brisbane's advances towards a double chance?
St Kilda looks certain to lock up the final Wildcard Round slot, but can Carlton or GWS knock them out?
Each week on Zero Hanger between now and the end of the regular season, we will tip the week ahead, take stock of what's left, run through every club's trip to the finish line, and predict the final ladder.
Here is how the final four weeks of the run home are shaping for every team, as well as the best and worst-case scenarios available to each outfit.
Here are the tips for Round 21.
Collingwood Magpies lose to Geelong Cats
Fremantle Dockers defeat the Western Bulldogs
St Kilda Saints lose to Sydney Swans
Hawthorn Hawks defeat North Melbourne Kangaroos
Port Adelaide Power defeat GWS Giants
Carlton Blues lose to Brisbane Lions
Richmond Tigers lose to West Coast Eagles
Gold Coast Suns lose to Melbourne Demons
Essendon Bombers lose to Adelaide Crows
1. Fremantle Dockers
Current position: 1st, 68 points, 146%
Remaining games
Round 21: Western Bulldogs (home)
Round 22: Melbourne (away)
Round 23: Adelaide (home)
Round 24: Carlton (away)
A very cruisy win over cross-town rivals West Coast in the Derby.
The Dockers are fine-tuning their list, and getting their stars to play their best football at the right time. One more victory will secure the minor premiership.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Sydney Swans
Current position: 2nd, 56 points, 130%
Remaining games
Round 21: St Kilda (away)
Round 22: Port Adelaide (home)
Round 23: Essendon (away)
Round 24: North Melbourne (home)
Flexed their muscle against an underwhelming GWS outfit.
Sydney maintain some breathing space from the chasers hunting second spot and a home qualifying final.
A favourable run home for Dean Cox and his charges, but with the Saints and North Melbourne potentially needing victories for a Wildcard Round spot, danger could be looming.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. Hawthorn Hawks
Current position: 3rd, 54 points, 124%
Remaining games
Round 21: North Melbourne (home)
Round 22: Brisbane (away)
Round 23: Collingwood (home)
Round 24: West Coast (away)
A resounding win over Essendon continued Hawthorn's push towards a top-two spot, but it will need Sydney to slip up in the final stretch of the season.
The Hawks are firing on all cylinders but lose Mitch Lewis to concussion, ideally only missing one game.
Clashes against Brisbane and Collingwood should determine where the Hawks finish the season, but they still need to tick off games with North Melbourne and West Coast.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
4. Brisbane Lions
Current position: 4th, 52 points, 120.6%
Remaining games
Round 21: Carlton (away)
Round 22: Hawthorn (home)
Round 23: Gold Coast (home)
Round 24: Collingwood (away)
The reigning premiers look scary each week, and their performance against Port Adelaide was no different.
The Lions are still in the hunt for a top-two spot, but rely on Sydney making a mistake in the final month of the season.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
5. Adelaide Crows
Current position: 5th, 48 points, 113.7%
Remaining games
Round 21: Essendon (away)
Round 22: Richmond (home)
Round 23: Fremantle (away)
Round 24: GWS (home)
The Crows' shock loss to Collingwood has put their top-six spot in jeopardy, opening the door for the chasers, such as the Pies and Western Bulldogs, to snare a position.
However, in Adelaide's favour, they have a soft draw on the way home, and should bank at least three wins against Essendon, Richmond and GWS.
A trip to Perth to face Fremantle could determine whether they secure a double chance, or await the Wildcard Round to determine their opponent in the first elimination.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
6. Melbourne Demons
Current position: 6th, 48 points, 107.8%
Remaining games
Round 21: Gold Coast (away)
Round 22: Fremantle (home)
Round 23: Port Adelaide (away)
Round 24: Western Bulldogs (home)
The Demons missed an opportunity to push for a top-four spot when beaten against Geelong, and now they open themselves up to a Wildcard Round. Melbourne were impressive but couldn't match the Cats on Friday night football.
Steven King has arguably been the coach of the year, but the last month of the season is crucial to where the club will land. All four matches pose as danger games.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
7. Western Bulldogs
Current position: 7th, 48 points, 96.8%
Remaining games
Round 21: Fremantle (away)
Round 22: North Melbourne (home)
Round 23: Carlton (home)
Round 24: Melbourne (away)
A strong win over Richmond keeps the top-six hopes alive for the Bulldogs, and it could be determined with the Round 24 clash against Melbourne.
But the weeks leading up aren't easy for Luke Beveridge's men, with the Dockers at Optus Stadium this coming weekend.
The Bulldogs have all but locked up a post-season appearance, but there's still a home elimination final up for grabs, although top four is mathematically possible.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
8. Collingwood Magpies
Current position: 8th, 46 points, 107.6%
Remaining games
Round 21: Geelong (home)
Round 22: West Coast (away)
Round 23: Hawthorn (away)
Round 24: Brisbane (home)
The Pies have notched up six wins in a row, and have claims on a top-six finish, albeit it will be a difficult feat.
The win over Adelaide all but secured a spot in the post-season, but they still have their work cut out for them.
Next week against Geelong will be crucial to Collingwood's top-six chances, and if they falter, you'd think they'll be in the Wildcard. But stranger things have happened.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
9. Geelong Cats
Current position: 9th, 44 points, 116.5%
Remaining games
Round 21: Collingwood (away)
Round 22: Essendon (home)
Round 23: North Melbourne (away)
Round 24: Richmond (home)
The Cats are back, and their win over Melbourne was a statement, even with multiple stars out injured.
Geelong do Geelong things, and winning is its motto. This Thursday against Collingwood could set up a top-four assault, but drop it and, likely, Chris Scott won't receive the familiar double chance.
Then an easy three-week stretch against the bottom two sides and North Melbourne should set the Cats on a positive trajectory leading into September, which is a danger sign for the competition.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
10. St Kilda
Current position: 10th, 36 points, 105.8%
Remaining games
Round 21: Sydney (home)
Round 22: Carlton (home)
Round 23: Richmond (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast (home)
The Saints needed to defeat North Melbourne to keep their Wildcard chances alive.
A tough clash against Sydney could shape the run home, but a favourable three-week block leading into September should present an opportunity for Ross the Boss to lock away a Wildcard Round slot.
If they're serious about their chances.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
11. Carlton Blues
Current position: 11th, 36 points, 92.4%
Remaining games
Round 21: Brisbane (home)
Round 22: St Kilda (away)
Round 23: Western Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: Fremantle (home)
The proverbial eight-point game was won by Carlton at Marvel Stadium over Gold Coast, keeping its shock Wildcard hopes alive.
The Blues turn into a difficult month ahead, so forgiveness will rain down on Ikon Park if they falter and miss out on September action.
But Josh Fraser has rallied the troops to give them some hope, and they only sit percentage outside the top 10.
St Kilda and Bulldogs clashes are sandwiched between hosting Brisbane and Fremantle. They'll need to win at least three of those contests, including the one against the Saints, to have any chance of post-season football.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: +1
12. GWS Giants
Current position: 12th, 32 points, 98.3%
Remaining games
Round 21: Port Adelaide (away)
Round 22: Gold Coast (home)
Round 23: West Coast (home)
Round 24: Adelaide (away)
The Giants produced another poor performance, and this time it cut deep.
A lowly outing against cross-town rivals Sydney not only hurt GWS' finals chances, but boosted their older brother's top-two position.
GWS sit a game outside the Wildcard Round slots as well as a healthy percentage. The next three weeks are all winnable, with clashes against teams lower on the ladder, before a final match-up with Adelaide that could decide the Giants' fate.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: -1
13. North Melbourne
Current position: 13th, 32 points, 89.6%
Remaining games
Round 21: Hawthorn (away)
Round 22: Western Bulldogs (away)
Round 23: Geelong (home)
Round 24: Sydney (away)
Another opportunity missed by the Kangaroos. North Melbourne's loss to St Kilda entrenches its position outside the top 10, sitting a game behind the Saints as well as a healthy percentage.
The next month is arguably the toughest in the competition, coming up against top six fancies, including Hawthorn and Sydney (away).
Despite claiming eight wins - the most since 2019 - it will still result in a finals-less campaign.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Gold Coast Suns
Current position: 14th, 28 points, 94.8%
Remaining games
Round 21: Melbourne (home)
Round 22: GWS Giants (away)
Round 23: Brisbane (away)
Round 24: St Kilda (away)
The Suns were valiant against the Blues, but you don't get points in the AFL for trying hard.
Another Gold Coast loss is quickly becoming the theme of the season, taking the streak to nine.
Two games outside the top 10 and percentage, the end of the year can't come quick enough for Damien Hardwick and his men.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
15. Port Adelaide
Current position: 15th, 24 points, 95.6%
Remaining games
Round 21: GWS Giants (home)
Round 22: Sydney (away)
Round 23: Melbourne (home)
Round 24: Essendon (away)
Facing Brisbane is a tough enough task as it is, but having stars of your side out through injury makes it all harder.
The Power still have an impressive 95.6 percentage despite only claiming six wins.
Josh Carr can build momentum for next year in the last month of the season, with two winnable games bookending clashes with Sydney and Melbourne.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
16. West Coast Eagles
Current position: 16th, 16 points, 70.1%
Remaining games
Round 21: Richmond (away)
Round 22: Collingwood (home)
Round 23: GWS Giants (away)
Round 24: Hawthorn (home)
The loss to Fremantle was similar to the Eagles of old, yielding to the superiority and pressure applied by the opposition.
But there's still plenty to work with for 'Mini' McQualter.
In the next three games, West Coast can set their sights on a win, ruffling a few feathers before the conclusion of the year.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
17. Essendon Bombers
Current position: 17th, 8 points, 65.4%
Remaining games
Round 21: Adelaide (home)
Round 22: Geelong (away)
Round 23: Sydney (home)
Round 24: Port Adelaide (home)
More pain for the Bombers against Hawthorn, including injury concerns.
Essendon simply cannot win a trick, and have endured a tumultuous year, and there's a feeling more pain is yet to come.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
18. Richmond Tigers
Current position: 18th, 8 points, 60.9%
Remaining games
Round 21: West Coast (home)
Round 22: Adelaide (away)
Round 23: St Kilda (home)
Round 24: Geelong (away)
The Tigers arguably have one chance to lift themselves off the bottom of the ladder, hosting West Coast.
They were trounced by the Western Bulldogs, and all confidence appears shot at Punt Road.
But a winnable clash should turn the club's mindset around, before a difficult three-week period to round out the season.
Likely finish: 18th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicting final AFL 2026 ladder
- Fremantle Dockers - 84 points
- Sydney Swans - 72 points
- Hawthorn Hawks - 70 points
- Brisbane Lions - 64 points
- Adelaide Crows - 60 points
- Melbourne Demons - 60 points
- Western Bulldogs - 56 points
- Geelong Cats - 56 points
- Collingwood Magpies - 54 points
- St Kilda Saints - 48 points
- GWS Giants - 44 points
- Carlton Blues - 36 points
- North Melbourne Kangaroos - 32 points
- Port Adelaide Power - 28 points
- Gold Coast Suns - 28 points
- West Coast Eagles - 20 points
- Essendon Bombers - 8 points
- Richmond Tigers - 8 points
Prediction Week 1 finals
Wildcard Round 1: Western Bulldogs (7th) vs St Kilda (10th)
Wildcard Round 2: Geelong (8th) vs Collingwood (9th)
Qualifying Final 1: Fremantle (1st) vs Brisbane (4th)
Qualifying Final 2: Sydney (2nd) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
Elimination Final 1: Adelaide (5th) vs lowest-ranked Wildcard Round winner
Elimination Final 2: Melbourne (6th) vs highest ranked Wildcard Round winner
