In downing the Adelaide Crows in the ruthless and breakneck fashion that they mustered on Saturday night, the Brisbane Lions continued an AFL trend.

Teams to lose a qualifying final by 50+ points - something the Lions did a week ago, at Sydney's hands - are now 13-0 in the semi-final that follows that embarrassing first-up finals loss.

However, none of the previous 12 sides to right the ship in the semi have gone on to win the preliminary final that follows.

That is to say, history is both against the Lions, and at their feet, when they travel to Melbourne to face the red-hot Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday evening.

The Lions, now halfway to said history, have been streaky in recent times - an admission made by superstar-in-waiting, Will Ashcroft, following their semi-final victory over the Crows. They have been accused of picking and choosing when to show up for a given contest, and when not to, and have fallen asleep at the wheel in game, with a lead in hand, far more than a dynastic side such as this should be comfortable with.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 02: Will Ashcroft of the Lions in action during the round four AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Collingwood Magpies at The Gabba, on April 02, 2026, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 02: Will Ashcroft of the Lions in action during the round four AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Collingwood Magpies at The Gabba, on April 02, 2026, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

However, this is a side that thrives when outside narratives conspire against them. It is almost as if they need the landscape to believe their run is finished for them to prove that it isn't. When history and punditry scheme against them, that is when this side of superstars is at its very best. Sam Mitchell, best beware.

The Lions have done almost everything in recent years. The grandfatherly (although recently curt) Chris Fagan has seen his men conquer all of the hoodoos he infamously placed on their whiteboard when he first took the reins in the River City - from wins over teams that owned them to luckless streaks at certain venues coming to an end. The Gabba is now a rocking fortress once more, as evidenced in breathtaking fashion in Saturday's win.

If the Lions are to once again salute on the last Saturday in September, and claim the crowning flag of a second three-peat this century, they will re-write what is possible in this code, in more ways than one. It would take the bravest of punters to bet against them.

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