Any changes to the 2027 AFL Draft Order due to accrued deficit points from this year's match bidding won't impact Tasmania's suite of early selections for next year's draft, meaning clubs could jump up multiple spots in the queue should a team ahead of them be forced to move back in the order.
The Draft Value Index system allows clubs matching bids for club-tied prospects to use to 412 deficit points to reach the required total, with any accrued deficit then taken from their first-round pick the following year.
Port Adelaide loom likely to dip into their deficit allowance to match a likely Pick 1 bid from Essendon on Next Generation Academy prospect Dougie Cochrane. The Power are currently 17 points short of reaching the desired 2700 points with the total of their earliest two selections - Picks 7 and 12.
The South Australian club may look to trade one or both of those picks and eat into their deficit further, simultaneously bolstering their draft hand elsewhere while still attaining the highly-rated Cochrane.
In a scenario where the Power finish 17th on the ladder in 2027 - they would be handed Pick 4 at the end of the season, with Tasmania occupying Picks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 to start their maiden haul.
It would only take a deficit of 168 points or more - under the 2026 DVI - for the Power to be forced to move back in the draft queue. However, with Tasmania occupying Pick 5, the Power would fall back to Pick 6 instead, with any deficit-led draft order changes not impacting Tasmania's selections.
The team that finished in 16th at the end of the 2027 season, which would hold Pick 6 should they have their first-round pick - would then jump up two spots in the queue to Pick 4, swapping places with Port Adelaide and 'leapfrogging' the Devils following the implementation of the accrued deficit.
Carlton, GWS and Brisbane are among the clubs that could rely on a portion of their allocated 412 deficit points at this year's AFL Draft given their ties to promising prospects from the 2026 haul.
Blues father-son Cody Walker could fetch a bid from Essendon immediately after the Bombers' play for Cochrane, with Carlton currently not in a position to match a Pick 2 bid, even with the deficit available to them. Currently, a Pick 3 bid would see the Blues require 262 of their deficit points.
The Lions, who have ties to Academy talent Caylen Murray, and GWS, which has first dibs on its own Allies star in Ethan Matthews, may also look to shuffle their draft hands before next month's AFL Draft to better position themselves to match likely top 10 bids, with deficit a good chance to be relied upon in those bids.
Any DVI deficit changes will come into effect following the 2027 AFL Grand Final. Tasmania's early picks won't be impacted in the time between the season decider and the opening of the trade and free agency period.
Any free agency compensation selections that fall ahead of Tasmania's picks will push the Devils back, however. In a scenario where the wooden spoon side loses a free agent and receives band one compensation, they would be given Pick 3, forcing Tasmania's second selection back to Pick 4.
