The climax of the VFL season is everything league headquarters would have hoped happened in the AFL - but has not materialised.
Frankston, Coburg, GWS and perhaps even Essendon remain in contention for the top four and coveted double chance, but a loss for any of those sides could result in them tumbling out of the top 10 if other results go against them.
Just one game and 22 percentage points separate fourth and 11th, with only top-two teams Geelong and Werribee assured of where they will finish on the table.
All the other sides are caught in a logjam, with a double chance, week off and top 10 spots all on the line ahead of the last game of the home and away season.
Box Hill has been one of the pace-setters all season, but an upset by Casey Demons could tumble the incumbent third-placed side into Wildcard Round calculations.
Hawthorn will be hoping its VFL program goes on the September run many expect them too, to provide its depth players with competitive game-time during September.
Tasmania has qualified for September in its first season back in the competition and will have an entire state behind them and will likely get at least one home final.
Frankston, which has created a fortress at Kinetic Stadium in the night fixtures, need to win against Williamstown to guarantee another finals berth - but if they do win, they will likely get to play a final at home and will almost certainly avoid Wildcard Round.
Coburg will be attempting to return to VFL finals for the first time in 19 years, but if they lose to Williamstown, they would need one GWS, Essendon or Port Melbourne to lose to play in Wildcard Round.
Carlton's finals hopes took a hit with a surprise loss to St Kilda on Sunday which has meant the Blues have lost control of their destiny - but a lot would need to go wrong for the Blues to miss finals if they beat Footscray.
Another big tick of the VFL this season has been the competitiveness of clubs in the lower rungs of the table.
The Suns have been inconsistent and will likely finish as the wooden spooners yet went down by just 13 points to potential top four side GWS last weekend; Richmond has been stung by injuries to AFL players, but has challenged potential finalists Port Melbourne and top four prospect Box Hill in the last fortnight.
Sandringham, meanwhile, has been a feel good story of the league this year, proving doughty against the best sides, particularly at home as its young squad lays the roots for next year.
While VFL traditionalists will marvel in a sensational roller-coaster of a last round, three finals-bound AFL clubs will be frustrated that its reserves program has just one game remaining.
Steven King has been a regular critic of the VFL system this season, with affiliate Casey to miss finals, while Collingwood and Brisbane also won't have any lower level footy to play after this weekend.
Round 22 VFL fixture: Brisbane v Gold Coast, Williamstown v Frankston, Essendon v Sydney, Port Melbourne v Collingwood, Richmond v St Kilda, Werribee v Sandringham, GWS v Tasmania, Western Bulldogs v Carlton, North Melbourne v Geelong, Box Hill v Casey
Every VFL finals contender's situation
Geelong VFL
Plays against: North Melbourne
This is a free hit for the Cats, a tune-up ahead of the VFL finals series, with the club sitting 10 points clear atop the table
Werribee
Plays against: Sandringham
A nice tune up for Werribee ahead of bigger challenges in the VFL finals. The Zebras will keep the Bees honest so they should not be taken lightly but whether they win or lose, they will finish second.
Box Hill
Plays against: Casey
Needs to beat Casey if it wants a top four berth, with the four points locking the Hawks into third place. A loss and they would tumble to seventh if all the following results occur: Sydney defeat Essendon, Tasmania defeat GWS, Frankston defeat Williamstown and Coburg defeat Southport. If zero or one of those results occur, the Hawks will stay in the top four even with a loss, if two or three occur, the Hawks will host an elimination final.
Sydney
Plays against: Essendon
A win guarantees a top four finish and they would move up to third, giving them a simpler qualifying final, if Box Hill losses. A loss would force them to hit the road in Wildcard Round if the following results materialise: Frankston defeat Williamstown, Coburg defeat Southport and Port Melbourne beat Collingwood. Best case scenario if Sydney loses is a home elimination final, which would be contingent on no more than one of the above results occurring.
Tasmania
Plays against: GWS
Victory over GWS would catapult the Devils into the top four if Box Hill or Sydney slip up. A loss would make things trickier. If any of Frankston, Coburg, Essendon or Port Melbourne won, the Devils would be consigned to Wildcard Round, and they would fall all the way down to 10th if all of those results occurred.
Frankston
Plays against: Williamstown
The Dolphins have the most intriguing game of the round with the top four, top six, Wildcard Round and missing finals altogether all in the mix. A victory would give them a chance of reaching the top six but they would need two of Box Hill, Sydney and Tasmania to lose. If the Hawks lose, there is a 4.3 per cent gap that needs to be made up. There is also an outside chance the Dolphins could win and still miss the top six, as Coburg is just three percentage points behind them so could win by a bigger margin and overtake the Dolphins on percentage. A loss and Frankston's best case - and most likely - scenario is a Wildcard Round finish. But if Coburg, GWS, Essendon and Port Melbourne all win, the Dolphins would plummet out of the 10.
Coburg
Plays against: Southport
The fairytale of a finals return is not sewn up yet. Beat Southport, though, and the top four remains - distantly - in play if Sydney, Tasmania and Frankston all slip up. If Sydney or Frankston slip up or Frankston win by a considerably smaller margin than Coburg, they will jump into the top six. If GWS beats Tasmania, that would also open up a top six spot, but just 1.9 per cent separate GWS and Tasmania so the Giants have a chance of overtaking Coburg even if they win, making that route a bit trickier. Should Coburg lose, they would tumble out of the top 10 if four or five of the following results happened: GWS defeat Tasmania, Essendon defeats Sydney, Port Melbourne defeats Collingwood, Williamstown defeats Frankston, Carlton defeats Western Bulldogs.
GWS Giants
Plays against: Tasmania
Top four is just about out of the question, even with a win - all of Sydney, Frankston and Coburg would need to stumble. If one of them stumbles, GWS would reach the top six with a win - unless Essendon smashed Sydney, in which case GWS would be in danger of being overtaken on percentage. If the Giants lose, they would be reliant on three of Essendon, Port Melbourne, Williamstown and Carlton slipping up to preserve a spot in the top 10.
Essendon
Plays against: Sydney
The Bombers remain an outside chance of avoiding Wildcard Round with a win against Sydney. They would need at least two of Tasmania, Frankston and Coburg to lose, or one of Frankston and Coburg and beat Sydney by a reasonably bigger margin than GWS defeats Tasmania. If the Bombers lose, they would slip from the top 10 if two of Port Melbourne, Williamstown and Carlton win.
Port Melbourne
Plays against: Collingwood
Port Melbourne would need a fair bit to go right to qualify for the top six - all of Frankston, Coburg and Essendon would need to lose - and the Borough would need to win. As long as they get the win, the Borough will qualify for the top 10.
Williamstown
Plays against: Frankston
If the Seagulls beat Frankston, they will qualify - it's as simple as that. In the unlikely event all of Frankston, Coburg, GWS, Essendon and Port Melbourne lose, they will make the top six - otherwise it will be a Wildcard Round berth.
Carlton
Plays against: Footscray
Despite sitting outside the top 10, Carlton is well-placed to qualify if they win. Given Williamstown play Frankston, Carlton will move up to at least 11th with a win, and will reach the finals-bound top 10 if any of Coburg, GWS, Essendon or Port Melbourne stumble
Current VFL top 12
Geelong - 60 points - 169.6%
Werribee - 50 points - 117.1%
Box Hill - 44 points - 110.9%
Sydney - 42 points - 126.5%
Tasmania - 42 points - 111.7%
Frankston - 40 points - 106.6%
Coburg - 40 points - 103.6%
GWS Giants - 40 points - 101.7%
Essendon - 40 points - 99.1%
Port Melbourne - 40 points - 95.4%
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Williamstown - 38 points - 104.2%
Carlton - 36 points - 110.2%
Predicted final VFL ladder
Geelong - 64 points
Werribee - 54 points
Box Hill - 48 points
Sydney - 46 points
Coburg - 44 points
GWS Giants - 44 points
Port Melbourne - 44 points
Williamstown - 42 points
Carlton - 40 points
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Frankston - 40 points
Essendon - 40 points
St Kilda - 34 points
Southport - 34 points
Footscray - 32 points
Collingwood - 28 points
North Melbourne - 26 points
Brisbane - 24 points
Casey - 24 points
Sandringham - 18 points
Gold Coast - 12 points
Richmond - 12 points
