Carlton is one step closer to locking up a shock finals spot when they trounced St Kilda by 44 points in an in-season elimination final.
Despite the losses, GWS and St Kilda remain mathematically in the hunt for the Wildcard Round, but need the Blues to lose both their remaining clashes.
Melbourne and Adelaide prevailed in close clashes to keep their top-four hopes alive while Hawthorn's blunder against Brisbane opened the door to a double chance.
After the Friday night blunder against Brisbane, Hawthorn's home qualifying aspirations are almost dead in the water.
Each week on Zero Hanger between now and the end of the regular season, we will tip the week ahead, take stock of what's left, run through every club's trip to the finish line, and predict the final ladder.
Here is how the final three weeks of the run home are shaping for every team, as well as the best and worst-case scenarios available to each outfit.
Here are the tips for Round 23.
Fremantle Dockers to beat Adelaide Crows
Richmond Tigers to lose to St Kilda Saints
North Melbourne Kangaroos to lose to Geelong Cats
Brisbane Lions to beat Gold Coast Suns
Hawthorn Hawks to beat Collingwood Magpies
Port Adelaide to lose to Melbourne Demons
GWS Giants to beat West Coast
Western Bulldogs to lose to Carlton Blues
Essendon Bombers to lose to Sydney Swans
1. Fremantle Dockers
Current position: 1st, 72 points, 143.4%
Remaining games
Round 23: Adelaide (home)
Round 24: Carlton (away)
The Dockers' four-point loss to Melbourne did nothing to their minor premiership or top position, but did it create the blueprint on how to beat the premiership favourites?
Or was it a loss they needed to have before the finals?
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Sydney Swans
Current position: 2nd, 64 points, 134%
Remaining games
Round 23: Essendon (away)
Round 24: North Melbourne (home)
The Swans were always tipped to lock in a home qualifying final, but Saturday's 97-point win over Port Adelaide just about put the final nail in the coffin.
A soft fortnight to round out the home and away season, and a win over Essendon (away) will keep Sydney at their home base for the next few weeks.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. Hawthorn Hawks
Current position: 3rd, 58 points, 118.2%
Remaining games
Round 23: Collingwood (home)
Round 24: West Coast (away)
The Hawks were disappointing against Brisbane when the pressure came, and the loss opens the door to multiple clubs chasing the double chance.
The remaining fixture - and the early season draw against Collingwood - has Hawthorn in the boxseat to remain in the top four, with the Pies and West Coast to come.
One slip-up and the brown and gold will be vulnerable.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
4. Brisbane Lions
Current position: 4th, 56 points, 117.8%
Remaining games
Round 23: Gold Coast (home)
Round 24: Collingwood (away)
The Lions' eyebrow-raising win over Hawthorn sent shockwaves through the AFL, but also helped them claim fourth position.
The remaining schedule favours Brisbane to secure a double chance, but with seven teams vying for the top four, they cannot afford to slip up.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: +1
5. Adelaide Crows
Current position: 5th, 56 points, 117.6%
Remaining games
Round 23: Fremantle (away)
Round 24: GWS (home)
The Crows survived Richmond by the skin of their teeth, and they needed to keep their top-four aspirations alive.
Adelaide has the cattle to compete against the best, and this weekend's match-up against the premiership favourites is a perfect litmus test. A loss, and there's a world they can slip inside the Wildcard Round.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: -1
6. Melbourne Demons
Current position: 6th, 56 points, 107.6%
Remaining games
Round 23: Port Adelaide (away)
Round 24: Western Bulldogs (home)
The Demons joined Geelong and GWS as the only teams to beat Fremantle this year.
Melbourne's remarkable season added another chapter by defeating the flag favourites by four points at the MCG.
Top four still alive, but a pair of banana peel games against Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs make for a thrilling finish to the season, with Geelong looming as a club set to jump up the ladder.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
7. Geelong Cats
Current position: 7th, 52 points, 120.6%
Remaining games
Round 23: North Melbourne (away)
Round 24: Richmond (home)
The Cats' big win over Essendon was much needed as they look to jump up the ladder.
The monster victory helped leapfrog the Demons, Crows and Lions in terms of percentage, and they await one of the three clubs to slip up to jump above the Wildcard slots.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
8. Collingwood Magpies
Current position: 8th, 50 points, 106.4%
Remaining games
Round 23: Hawthorn (away)
Round 24: Brisbane (home)
Collingwood has locked in a spot in the finals with a win over West Coast.
The Pies have been battered by injury, and will get some soldiers back for the first week of the final. But will they attempt to push for top six?
Wins over the Hawks and Lions, albeit unlikely, would put the Pies in the running for a position above the Wildcard slots.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: +1
9. Western Bulldogs
Current position: 8th, 48 points, 93.9%
Remaining games
Round 23: Carlton (home)
Round 24: Melbourne (away)
The Bulldogs looked battered against an energetic North Melbourne outfit, and the scoreline showed.
The loss to the Kangaroos does mathematically open the door for Luke Beveridge and his men to fall outside the top 10.
A difficult fortnight ahead, plus a weak percentage and a mountain of injuries, leaves the Bulldogs vulnerable.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Carlton Blues
Current position: 10th, 44 points, 99.6%
Remaining games
Round 23: Western Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: Fremantle (home)
The Blues are one step closer to locking away a surprise finals position.
Sunday's win over St Kilda was a mini elimination final, with the two clubs split by two wins with only two games remaining.
Carlton has been impressive under Josh Fraser
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
11. St Kilda
Current position: 11th, 36 points, 101.6%
Remaining games
Round 23: Richmond (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast (home)
The Saints' finals chances are slipping, which was compounded by the hamstring injury to Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
There's still hope, with a pair of clashes St Kilda is expected to win. Tick those off and pray Carlton lose to the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle.
The Blues win one, and that's the season over for Ross Lyon and his men.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
12. GWS Giants
Current position: 12th, 36 points, 98.9%
Remaining games
Round 23: West Coast (home)
Round 24: Adelaide (away)
A chance goes begging for the Giants, who failed to overcome Gold Coast in miserable conditions.
The Giants needed to win, and would've been in the running for a Wildcard spot.
Now, like St Kilda, it seems extremely unlikely they'll join the premiership hunt once the season concludes, needing Carlton to lose both remaining games and the Saints to lose at least one.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: -1
13. North Melbourne
Current position: 13th, 36 points, 90.9%
Remaining games
Round 23: Geelong (home)
Round 24: Sydney (away)
The Kangaroos finally claim a scalp and beat a team inside the top eight.
It was a strong performance against the battered Bulldogs on Thursday, and leaves the door, albeit slightly, ajar for a shock finals appearance.
Results need to go their way, but they must beat top-four fancies Geelong and Sydney.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Gold Coast Suns
Current position: 14th, 32 points, 95%
Remaining games
Round 23: Brisbane (away)
Round 24: St Kilda (away)
The Suns ended the 10-game losing streak with a gutsy win over GWS.
Matt Rowell returned to his Brownlow Medal-winning best, and the victory gave some relief to Damien Hardwick.
Albeit too little, too late, Gold Coast needed to relieve some pressure.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
15. Port Adelaide
Current position: 15th, 24 points, 90.2%
Remaining games
Round 23: Melbourne (home)
Round 24: Essendon (away)
The Power can't wait for the season to finish, with an array of injuries to key players consistently hindering the club on a weekly basis.
Port Adelaide lost to Sydney by 97 points, which was rare given how competitive they've been throughout the year.
The Alberton club still has a chance to claim a win before the season concludes.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
16. West Coast Eagles
Current position: 16th, 16 points, 71.5%
Remaining games
Round 23: GWS Giants (away)
Round 24: Hawthorn (home)
The Eagles missed their chance to knock off Collingwood, and they should've in front of a home crowd.
The Pies were missing many key players, and West Coast were poised to claim a big scalp, which they failed to do.
They'll look to end the year with momentum, starting with the Giants in Sydney.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
17. Richmond Tigers
Current position: 17th, 12 points, 63.5%
Remaining games
Round 23: St Kilda (home)
Round 24: Geelong (away)
The Tigers were valiant in their defeat against Adelaide, but probably cost themselves four points with inaccurate kicking, albeit in trying conditions.
This week against St Kilda will be Nathan Broad's final AFL game, so will they shake things up with a win?
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
18. Essendon Bombers
Current position: 18th, 8 points, 63.2%
Remaining games
Round 23: Sydney (home)
Round 24: Port Adelaide (home)
Another heavy loss to the Bombers at the hands of Geelong.
Some positive signs from Dyson Sharp, while a lot of Essendon youngsters had moments.
Likely finish: 18th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicting final AFL 2026 ladder
- Fremantle Dockers - 80 points
- Sydney Swans - 72 points
- Hawthorn Hawks - 66 points
- Brisbane Lions - 64 points
- Melbourne Demons - 64 points
- Geelong Cats - 60 points
- Adelaide Crows - 60 points
- Collingwood Magpies - 50 points
- Carlton Blues - 48 points
- Western Bulldogs - 48 points
- St Kilda Saints - 44 points
- GWS Giants - 40 points
- North Melbourne Kangaroos - 36 points
- Gold Coast Suns - 28 points
- Port Adelaide Power - 28 points
- West Coast Eagles - 16 points
- Richmond Tigers - 12 points
- Essendon Bombers - 8 points
Prediction Week 1 finals
Wildcard Round 1: Adelaide (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (10th)
Wildcard Round 2: Collingwood (8th) vs Carlton (9th)
Qualifying Final 1: Fremantle (1st) vs Brisbane (4th)
Qualifying Final 2: Sydney (2nd) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
Elimination Final 1: Melbourne (5th) vs lowest-ranked Wildcard Round winner
Elimination Final 2: Geelong (6th) vs highest-ranked Wildcard Round winner
