The AFL's first-ever 10-team Finals series has taken shape, and while every finalist remains in the hunt for the Premiership, the roads to get to the last Saturday in September are far from equal.
Only three sides have ever won the Premiership after finishing the home and away season outside of the top four. Brisbane from fifth in 2024, Western Bulldogs from seventh in 2016 and Adelaide from fifth in 1998, meaning for the teams facing off in the Wildcard, a history-defining effort will have to be made.
For some clubs, September begins with a double chance and a week off, while for others, one game can decide their fate.
As the inaugural Wildcard round kicks off, here is how every contender's Premiership path shapes up, and which clubs have the clearest route to the Grand Final.
Carlton
Path Rating: 4/10
No team has a harder mathematical road to the Premiership than Carlton.
They must simply win their game against the Bulldogs to enter the actual finals bracket and will then still need to win three more games to even get a chance at competing in the Grand Final.
All will have to be done from tenth position.
If they do win, they will then face either the Crows or Geelong in an Elimination Final, and a top four side if they progress further.
However, they can't be dismissed from doing something spectacular in September.
The Blues enter the Wildcard round in arguably the best form of any team in the AFL, having won 11 of their last 14 games alongside a draw to push them into the Wildcard.
They knocked off both Premiership favourites Fremantle by 37 points and Brisbane by 76 points within the span of four weeks, and although it doesn't change the difficulty of the road ahead, they're a team no other side wants to play right now.
