The football gods are set to throw a curveball at Fremantle and Brisbane for the 2026 Grand Final.

The AFL has not had its marquee event impacted by rain since 2011 when Geelong downed Collingwood in a wet decider.

In the 15 years since, the sun has shone on the Grand Final. But that is expected to change this Saturday, with early forecasts expecting between 4-15mls of rain and a top of 17 degrees.

So which side does this forecast help, and who does it hinder?

Fremantle had its most recent case of wet weather football in the Qualifying Final against Hawthorn. A test the Dockers failed miserably in a 32-point loss at home.

Although the rain wasn't heavy, the wet ball and ground mixed with the Hawks' elite pressure led to a Dockers crash-out.

Brisbane's last wet weather game also came in this year's Qualifying Final with an equally disappointing result.

The Lions were felled by Sydney to the tune of 53 points as the rain pelted down.

So neither side will be buoyed by the prospect of showers overhead mid-game. But how have wet-weather Grand Finals played out this century?

The last example was in 2011 when the Cats beat the Pies by 38 points after a fourth quarter burst. The match was high-scoring, with Geelong winning the match 119-81.

Leading into the Grand Final was when the rain was at its heaviest, while showers were interspersed throughout the game.

A look at the AFL's highest and lowest rated attacks in history
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 01: Mitch Duncan and James Podsiadly of the Cats celebrate with the Premiership Cup after winning the 2011 AFL Grand Final match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground on October 1, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)

Two years prior, the Grand Final was heavily affected by rain and wind while the prospect of hail loomed over the MCG during the 2009 classic between St Kilda and Geelong.

In that fixture, on the scoreboard at least, St Kilda struggled the most with the wet conditions as Ross Lyon's men booted 9.14. Opponents Geelong kicked an accurate 12.8 to claim a memorable 12-point win.

Loading matchup…

Over the past two decades, only two deciders have been rain-impacted (2009,2011), so what it means for this Saturday's Grand Final remains uncertain.

In terms of how the wet weather will affect each team's game plan, Fremantle play its best football with slick and quick handballs from defensive 50 through the middle in a counterattack that leaves its opponents streaming back and likely out of position.

The addition of rain into the Dockers' plan could mean fewer handballs, and more down the line to their talented (but out of form) key forwards. This will slow down Fremantle's scoring, but may allow Justin Longmuir's men to set up better defensively than they have in recent weeks.

Chris Fagan's chargers love a kick-mark style of football, so like the Dockers, the rain may change how the Lions look to move the ball from defensive 50 to attack.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 12: Zac Bailey of the Lions celebrates with team mates after kicking a goal during the round 18 AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Essendon Bombers at The Gabba, on July 12, 2026, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 12: Zac Bailey of the Lions celebrates with teammates after kicking a goal during the round 18 AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Essendon Bombers at The Gabba, on July 12, 2026, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Both teams have three-pronged key forward lines and dangerous smalls lurking in the attack.

However, Brisbane's mix of Cameron Rayner, Kai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and Conor McKenna has combined for 196 goals this season.

Fremantle's small forward group of Isaiah Dudley, Michael Frederick, Shai Bolton, Murphy Reid and Sam Switkowski have been dwarfed with only 108 goals.

So who the wet weather favours is not yet clear. But what can be said is that both sides' trademark styles will be tested by the conditions, and likely both coaches will have to adapt on the fly.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION