With two rounds left in the home and away season, all eyes are firmly set upon the finals.
The top six teams are all but set in the eight, with another six fighting for the final two spots.
The Eagles loss to the Demons means that while very unlikely, seventh spot may well be up for grabs- should the Eagles fail to win any of their remaining games.
The last two rounds not only have huge ramifications for those fighting for the last spots in the eight, but also for the first week of finals matchups still unclear due to the top four currently all within one game of one-another.
P W L PTS % 1 
SYD 23 17 6 68 126.7 2 
PORT 23 16 7 64 114.8 3 
GEEL 23 15 8 60 112.2 4 
GWS 23 15 8 60 109.1 5 
BL 23 14 8 58 121.9 6 
WB 23 14 9 56 125.1 7 
HAW 23 14 9 56 118.5 8 
CARL 23 13 10 52 110.2
A top four spot is usually the formula for premiership glory, with the Bulldogs of 2016 the only team able to win from outside the top four in over a decade.
Although the premiers usually reside in the top four of the ladder, Leigh Montagna outlined on Fox Footy's First Crack how history tells us being on top of the ladder might not be all it's cracked up to be.
"This is if you finish on top of the ladder." Montagna went on to explain. "The teams that have finished on top have won 8 of their 10 qualifying finals. They've beaten the fourth seed over the last 10 years. They then play in the prelim and six times in the last ten seasons the top team have gone on to make the grand final.
"But they have only won once in 10 years. The Hawks of 2013 are the only team over the last 10 years to have finished the season on top and won a flag.
"Is it a poison chalice?
"Then when you take a look if you finish second vs third, playing in the other qualifying final, the winner of second vs third has made the grand final nine out of 10 times. And the winner of second vs third has won eight out of ten grand finals.
"The team that has finished fourth in the last 10 seasons has made one grand final. That was Geelong last year. It is really interesting when you look at the history and history does stack up."
History rarely lies, but a number of teams will be hoping to break recent history in a push to win the 2021 premiership.
With only two rounds left in the season, we take a look at possible scenarios for how the finals landscape looks to take shape and whether YOUR team can make it to finals this September.
Western Bulldogs
Best result:ย 1st
Worst result:ย 5th
A bit needs to go wrong for the Dogs to lose their double chance and fall out of the top four.
If the Dogs were to struggle in the absence of Josh Bruce in the forward half and succumb to two losses, they would only drop out of the top four if the Lions managed to win their remaining two games and do so in a fashion that improves their percentage to be better than that of the Dogs. A bit of a long shot.
Heartbreaking news for the Doggies veteran ๐ #AFL https://t.co/8dRp6xDOYa
— Zero Hanger (@zerohanger) August 9, 2021
With that being said, the absence of key personnel in each position has held the Dogs back from their best football. A loss to the Bombers on the weekend was one of their most notable shock losses, with Peter Wright providing most of the damage for the opposition, kicking seven goals in Alex Keath's absence.
With Bruce now on the sidelines for the remainder of the season, alongside Keath and Stef Martin, the Dogs now have a massive hole in each area of the ground that they will be desperate to rectify with only two rounds left before finals.
Geelong Cats
Best result: 1st
Worst result: 5th
Similarly to the Bulldogs, the Cats had a slight blip on the weekend after a shock loss to the Giants at home, which has opened the door slightly to a fall from the top four themselves. This was with star midfielder Patrick Dangerfield off the ground after an errant elbow from Toby Greene left Dangerfield sent to hospital.
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kicks for goal during the AFL Community Series match between the Geelong Cats and the Essendon Bombers at GMHBA Stadium on March 06, 2021 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
He is a part of a busy Geelong medical wing, with Gary Rohan, Zach Tuohy, Mitch Duncan and Jeremy Cameron all dealing with their own injury woes.
Again, a lot needs to go pear-shaped for this to be a possibility. However, matchups against the Saints (who are desperate to make finals) and the Demons (who have already beaten Geelong earlier in the season) will be no walkover. Losing both is a very real possibility, a possibility that can potentially derail their premiership aspirations if they manage to fall out the top four.
Regardless of position however, no one will be wanting to face the experienced Cats come September.
Port Adelaide
Best result: 1st
Worst result: 6th
A lot will need to go right for Port Adelaide to be back-to-back minor premiers. But in reality, it's because they haven't really deserved to be this season.
Port Adelaide have been accused of being flat track bullies throughout the course of the season. Poor performances against Brisbane and Collingwood away from home, as well as an alarming 2-5 record to the current top eight sides has many analysts questioning Port's finals credentials.
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But despite this, they have still managed to claw their way into the top four with an ugly, yet vital, four-game winning streak.
What should be a relatively stress free win over the Blues is followed by a blockbuster final round matchup against Bulldogs, a clash that will likely have huge ramifications for how the top four sit for finals.
Port are close to full strength again at the right end of the season, with only Robbie Gray, Steven Motlop and Lachlan Jones yet to come back into their starting 22.
Melbourne Demons
Best result: 1st
Worst result: 6th
Whilst being the benchmark of the competition over the course of the season, the Demons have had a number of slip ups during the latter rounds.
Since Round 13 the Demons have broken even with a record of 3-3-1, highlighted by disappointing performances against the Pies, Giants, Dogs and Hawks.
After starting the season unbeatable, teams have slowly started to dissect Melbourne's game plan, finding ways to pick apart their impenetrable defence that has held up for a majority of the year.
After the loss to the Bulldogs, the Demons needed a response. And despite a COVID kerfuffle that saw them fly up and back from Queensland just to play the next day in Melbourne, the Demons responded emphatically by destroying the Suns by 98 points.
Their tenacity around the ball was back to their best, looking like the side that were unbeaten after nine rounds.
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With a trip to Perth tonight, the Demons have the opportunity to be half a game clear on top of the ladder. Staying there will spell the first time they have been able to finish a season on top since their premiership winning year of 1964, putting them in pole position to break the longest premiership drought in the AFL.
Brisbane Lions
Best result: 3rd
Worst result: 6th
Since the season ending ACL injury to star forward Eric Hipwood, the Brisbane Lions have been somewhat out of sorts. Leading into the Round 17 match with St Kilda, the Lions were tearing up the competition winning 10 of their last 11 games. Since, they have dropped dramatically with a record of 2-3 with losses against the Saints, Tigers and Hawks.
The Hawks loss spelled trouble, with a then second last Hawthorn successfully running over a top four hopeful that had no answers. A position no coach would want to be in, Chris Fagan had to reinvigorate his side to play to the same quality on display before the Saints match.
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A bounce back game was necessary and was ultimately delivered in the form of a 64-point mauling of the Dockers, who themselves would have rated their chances against the vulnerable Lions at home.
With the Lions looking to have their purr back, they will likely finish the season in emphatic fashion with relatively easy games against the inconsistent Eagles and struggling Pies.
Sydney Swans
Best result: 3rd
Worst result: 6th
A shock loss to the Saints on the weekend has marred what has been an impressive run of form for the Swans leading into the finals. Dropping what has been one of their easier games of late isn't necessarily a huge point of concern, but has delivered a huge blow to sneak into the top four.
With another couple of straight forward games against the Kangaroos and the Suns, the Swans will storm into finals with plenty of momentum.
Of all the teams likely to finish outside the top four, the Swans look the most dangerous, looking to run up their own fairytale run similarly to the Dogs of 2016.
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John Longmire has the belief of his players to buy into an infectious "bloods" culture that has brought a third last side from 2020 to a high pressure and ferocious finals bound side who firmly believe they can stir the pot come September.
An exciting sight for many Swans fans.
West Coast
Best result: 7th
Worst result: Miss finals
The West Coast Eagles have been the most puzzling team in the competition.
An up and down start to the season had a number of fans worried about the vulnerabilities the Eagles were on occasion showing. Those worries seemed to be squashed as an impressive fortnight before the bye saw an undermanned West Coast beat Carlton on the road and a blockbuster come from behind win over the reigning champs Richmond.
The Eagles had defied doubters and looked set to push toward the top four.
Thats when the cracks started to reappear. Three straight losses including a 92 point spanking at the hand of the Swans plummeted the Eagles back down to the bottom end of the eight, in which they have less than convincingly stayed until now.
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Inconsistent lapses of play don't fill many with confidence heading toward September. Two more losses to end 2021 will likely spell the end of their season prior to finals. And even if they do manage to limp their way in, it looks unlikely that the Eagles will worry any opponents.
Greater Western Sydney
Best result: 7th
Worst result: Miss finals
A year where dealing with superstar player holes and a number of key injuries has led to an impressive season where the AFL's youngest club might still play in September.
Heading in to round four, the Giants were sitting 0-3 and staring at a steep drop off thanks to the departures of Jeremy Cameron, Zac Williams and Jye Caldwell amongst others. Despite the adversity faced, the Giants have managed to slowly creep closer to an even win-loss record that looks to be enough to hang on for finals.
A huge win against the Cats at GMHBA stadium looked all but impossible, with Leon Cameron forced to make EIGHT changes to his side that included superstar Josh Kelly and Phil Davis out with injury. Nonetheless, the biggest upset of the season has seen the Giants remain in the eight, with only the Tigers and Blues standing in their way.
At full strength, the Giants are still a raging bull that no opponent will want to see in the first round of finals. They look likely to be able to hold their position in the eight and cause havoc come finals.
Essendon Bombers
Best result: 7th
Worst result: Miss finals
What an incredible season for the Bombers. We can spend this time making fun of how long it's been since their last final win or their past controversies that has kneecapped this club for the best part of 20 years.
But now, if I were to be a Bombers supporter, there is finally light at the end of this long and dark tunnel.
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Ben Rutten has galvanised a young group in his first year, becoming an unexpected finals contender with an impressive season that has seen many upsets and blowout wins.
Most impressively, was their come from behind win over the Eagles in Perth. The rebuild to that point was gathering momentum fast, with the young side showing glimpses of brilliance that leaves them to where they sit now.
One spot out the eight. All to play for.
With winnable games against the Suns and Pies, you can be sure the Bombers are ready to pounce the moment the Giants or Eagles stumble.
However, if it doesn't happen this year, it will almost for sure happen soon with key re-signings of superstars Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett, Jake Stringer and others ensuring the Bombers will be up and about for many seasons to come.
Richmond Tigers
Best result: 7th
Worst result: Miss finals
The reigning premiers find themselves in unfamiliar territory, sitting two spots out of finals with as many rounds to rectify it.
Admittedly, it has been far from the Tigers year. A long injury list has forced them to insert kids into a system built for their stars. A drop in form has seen them be vulnerable, with a season ending injury to superstar Dustin Martin all but sealing their fate.
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With that being said however, the Tigers bounced back against the easy kill Kangaroos highlighted by a number of injured stars returning to their best form to lead a second half comeback. Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia and Nick Vlastuin have had strong impacts in their games back, with the Tigers hoping their returns aren't too little too late.
The Giants game in round 22 looks to be the game that will set up the final spot in the eight, with both unlikely to hold back in their relentless pursuit to be a part of the action in September.
St Kilda Saints
Best result: 8th
Worst result: Miss finals
The Saints will likely be left to rue a handful of missed opportunities throughout the year that will ultimately cost them their spot in finals. An unforgivable loss to the Blues was icing on a miserable cake, with the Saints missing opportunities the weeks previous against Port Adelaide and West Coast to make their finals push.
All the uncontrollable variables that the Saints needed to happen happened. All except them winning games.
Now, they have decided to tease their fanbase for another week by drip feeding them hope after an admittedly incredible performance over the Swans.
TO MAKE THE FINALS, WE NEED:
a) to win BOTH games
b) GWS to lose to RICH or CAR
c) RICH to lose to GWS or HAW
d) ESS to lose to COLL or GCS#TogetherWeRise #Unpluggered pic.twitter.com/fLQZrj4nKN— Unpluggered Podcast ๐ดโชโซ (@unpluggered) August 8, 2021
A lot needs to go right for the Saints, who have a chance to make it back-to-back finals campaigns. But they need to start by controlling the controllable, which is winning their last two games of the season against Geelong and Fremantle.
Fremantle Dockers
Best result: 8th
Worst result: Miss finals
An Awesome win against the Tigers was unfortunately followed up by a disappointing loss to the Lions, who were entering the game with a number of issues themselves.
The Dockers were in the box seat heading into Round 21 but look to be done and dusted after not only losing to the Lions but doing so in a fashion that damaged their percentage to be the worst amongst those currently sitting on nine wins.
There have been plenty of shining lights and the season is by no means over for the young Dockers, but the writing is on the wall.
Big wins against the Eagles and Saints are required, alongside key losses for those ahead. With superstar captain watching on from the sidelines, the season is all but over for the brave Dockers who have an incredibly bright future thanks to the forced exposure of young talent.
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Carlton Blues
Best result: 8th
Worst result: Miss finals
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If Carlton are to make finals, the equation is as follows:
AND
- West Coast must lose their remaining three games of the season
- Essendon lose both their games against the Gold Coast and Collingwood
- Fremantle beat West Coast but lose to the St Kilda
- St Kilda lose to Geelong but beat the Fremantle
The winner of the GWS and Richmond game will finish in 7th, leaving the Teague Train to make its final stop in 8th position on the ladder.
It is unlikely, but all Carlton fans need is to know there is in fact hope.
There is plenty of football left to be played, with high stakes for all left in contention. Whether it be securing a double chance or making up the numbers by squeezing into the eight, all of the teams above have a huge amount to play for.
So, where do you think your team will finish at the end of the season? Is finals still a possibility? Let us know in the comments!
