Former Collingwood coach Mich Malthouse believes the Pies cannot make the eight after a disappointing start to the season.
The Magpies have lost of their opening three matches, with the only victory coming via a last minute come from behind win over Richmond in Round 2.
“Twelve wins will get you in the eight,” Malthouse told Fox Sports’ Back Page Live.
“With 19 games to go, Collingwood has to win 11 of 19.
“That’s a simple fact of mathematics. Twelve will generally get you in the eight. Gold Coast, who have won three, now need to win nine of 19.
“I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that the top nine sides will probably stay as the top nine.”
The top nine sides as the ladder sits at the moment, are Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn.