MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 22: Joel Selwood of the Cats kicks the ball during the 2019 AFL round 01 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 22, 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)

The top five positions on the AFL ladder have already been decided according to a leading AFL statistical model on thearcfooty.com.

The model's projections for the rest of the season suggest Geelong and Collingwood are clearly the two best teams in the league, with the teams currently placed first and second expected to finish with 17.3 and 15.5 wins, respectively.

It predicts a tight race for third and fourth, with the Tigers, Giants and Eagles expected to win 14.5, 14.4 and 14.3 games, respectively.

Where the model gets more intriguing however, is the battle for the last three finals places, with very little separating the teams expected to finish between sixth and ninth. Fremantle is not expected to remain in the top eight, with Port Adelaide projected to rise to seventh, while the Crows round out the expected finalists. Only 0.7 projected wins separate sixth-placed Brisbane from ninth-placed Hawthorn.

The model's Elo ratings tell an entirely different story.

The top five teams remain the same, but Essendon is surprisingly rated the sixth-best team in the AFL, while Brisbane, which sits in sixth on the current AFL ladder, is ranked only 11th by this measure.

Other surprises include the disappointing Demons being rated the 10th best team in the competition, while the Dockers and Saints are rated well below their current ladder positions.