Carlton fans should rightfully bathe in the joy that interim coach Josh Fraser has brought to Princes Park over the past five weeks. However, there happens to be a fly in the ointment of this undefeated trail the Blues are blazing in the middle of the year.
As the navy blue rise up the ladder, the workload their list management ensemble will be required to carry out to secure highly-touted father-son draft prospect Cody Walker also increases.
Currently, Fraser's men find themselves sitting in 14th and just a win away from the top half of the competition off the back of a five-game unbeaten run, which precedes a pair of winnable encounters against West Coast and Richmond. Should their winning spell extend to seven games, Carlton could well be entrenched in the finals frame with seven games to go.
As things stand at 14th place, the Blues' opening draft pick sits at fifth overall. Coupled with their access to Sydney's first-round selection of Pick 17, Carlton finds itself in a strong position to match a bid for the potential dux of this year's draft class.
The AFL's most recent draft changes set a maximum of two picks per matched bid, with the Blues' two first-round selections giving them a total of 2,674 points. As they sit outside of the top 10, they'll also have access to a 10 per cent discount on an early bid for Walker.
A bid at Pick 1 - with a discount included - requires 2,700 points, meaning - as things stand - the Blues would need to either trade up the draft board, or dip into their available points bidding deficit, which has a ceiling of 412 points.
The Blues can finish as high as 11th on the ladder and still match a bid at Pick 1 for Walker with that deficit in hand, but a step into the newly-extended top 10 finals bracket, and they're suddenly out of reach.
Any club finishing between fifth and 10th has no tax or discount added to their ability to match a bid, making a rival's play for Walker at Pick 1 to cost the Blues 3000 points. The deficit won't get them there. Not even close.
This scenario, which Carlton's recruiters will no doubt plan for, is likely to require some wheeling and dealing to bolster their best two picks. The Blues' pair of top 2027 selections - one of which is also tied to Sydney - will come in handy, especially given clubs are required to hold a first-round pick for the following year should they want access to the allowable draft deficit.
A bid at Pick 2 for Walker would have the Blues able to finish 10th and come away with the Bendigo Pioneers prodigy, however again they'd be dipping into a deficit. The same can be said for a finish in ninth or eighth, which now seems a firm chance given how hot the Blues are running under Fraser's guidance.
However, seventh spot or higher is where their bid-matching abilities would fall short in this scenario. Chasing a target of 2,481 points, Picks 12 and 17, and the added 412 deficit points, would see the Blues fall 50 points short of the mark.
Any finish from 11th to 18th would allow the Blues to match a bid with their current top two picks alone.
In the event of a hopeful, but less likely, bid at Pick 3, Carlton wouldn't need to dip into their deficit should they finish in the bottom half of the ladder. From ninth through to fifth they could still use their own and Sydney's selection to match a bid, with a top four finish - which now sees clubs hit with a 10 per cent bid tax - required to see them fall out of reach.
Carlton's Cody Walker tightrope*
Also buoying the Blues' chances of shooting up the standings is the fact that they won't leave Melbourne for the rest of the home and away season.
After their next two games against the lowly-placed Eagles (Marvel Stadium) and Tigers (MCG), Carlton will come up against Hawthorn (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium), Brisbane (Marvel Stadium), St Kilda (Marvel Stadium), the Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) and Fremantle (Marvel Stadium).
Just two of those clubs occupy spots in the top six, while a further three are within reach of the Blues on the current ladder.
