On all statistical metrics, Hawthorn should be walking away with four premiership points, so the feeling of despair should be running through the changerooms.
Expected scores is an indicator of how the contest should've played out, and if it wasn't for a clutch goal from Dylan Moore after the siren to steal a draw, Thursday night would've been an utter disappointment.
According to WheeloRatings, the Hawks would've won the contest 98.8 percent of times. They were expected to score 98.5 points, which is more than, only just, what the Pies conceded.
Remarkably, Collingwood's incredible accuracy and efficiency kept them in the contest, and for large parts of it, should've caused an upset victory. They had a +31.4 on expected score, meaning on probabilities, were limited to 61.6 points on the night.
The end result was tipped to be a 37-point win to Hawthorn.
But why wasn't it?
Hawthorn dominated in every metric except the one where it counted most: the scoreboard.
The Hawks were +76 disposals (+36 kicks, +40 handballs), +28 inside 50s (62-34), +19 hit-outs, +16 clearances (39-23), +14 centre clearances (19-5), +29 contested possessions and +61 uncontested possessions.
They even spent 60 percent of time in forward half; They had 11 more shots on goal (30-19).
Collingwood recorded the third fewest inside 50s since 1999 for a win or draw.
"I really reward our fight," Pies coach Craig McRae said in the aftermath of the draw.
"We defend our D50 as good as anyone in the competition. We had some moments where we can do better aerially. Guys flying, clashing that we can get to work on.
"But when you defend your D50 like that, when you're under the pump, it's nice to know we can hold up."
The discrepancy of inside 50s were reminiscent of clashes in 2016 and 2025, when the differential of territory was lopsided.
Last year, the Pies lost to Adelaide in Round 23 despite recording 34 entries (71-37).
In 2016, West Coast stole the victory over Melbourne despite defending for large chunks of the game, resisting 66 entries to 37. A difference of 29.
It is not a sustainable stat.
Collingwood felt like they lost one last year against the Crows. The Demons were disappointed with their performance nearly a decade ago. Hawthorn will no doubt live in the same boat.
