No one could've predicted the shock landslide that Sydney is currently under, although remarkably they still sit two points clear on top of the ladder.
Fresh off a 112-point belting at the hands of Port Adelaide - the club's first 100-point defeat since 1998 - the Swans are in the midst of a free-fall, losing five of their past six encounters, with that solitary victory coming against a lowly North Melbourne side.
But where has it all gone wrong? What's changed from the dominant John Longmire side that had lost one match up until Round 15?
The successive close losses to Fremantle (one point), St Kilda (two points) and Brisbane (two points) showed rival clubs a blueprint to beat the at-the-time raging premiership favourites.
The Western Bulldogs clearly disarmed Sydney's great strengths, taking away their aggressive corridor use and midfield prowess while the Power just annihilated them on all fronts.
Relying onย Wheelo ratings for its statistical analysis, we'll be going through key areas Longmire's men have dropped off, comparing the entirety of the 2024 season averages with the past five weeks.
Team Averages
| 2024 avg. | Rank | Past 5 weeks avg. | Rank | |
| Kick | 220 | 5th | 212.8 | 10th |
| Inside 50s | 54.4 | 7th | 49.4 | 11th |
| Intercept Poss | 68.6 | 5th | 66 | 10th |
| Loose ball | 66.5 | 9th | 61.6 | 17th |
| Gather from hit-outs | 10.8 | 4th | 9.2 | 9th |
| Goal Accuracy | 51.6% | 6th | 44.3% | 15th |
| Goals per I50 | 25.9% | 3rd | 21.9% | 15th |
| Scores per Inside 50 | 48.2% | 2nd | 44.9% | 10th |
| Goals from stoppage | 37.5 pts | 3rd | 36 pts | 9th |
| Goals from TO | 55.8 pts | 1st | 36 pts | 18th |
| Def. half scores | 37.1 pts | 1st | 34.4 pts | 4th |
| For. half scores | 48 pts | 3rd | 31 pts | 18th |
| Hit-outs to Adv | 11.5 | 4th | 9.8 | 11th |
Now, some of these areas immediately jump off the page.
Such as the stark difference in points from turnover, with the club leading the competition across 21 rounds (heavily weighted due to the opening 13 weeks) compared to the past five weeks, with Sydney yielding the league's worst return.
The same can be said from forward half scores as well as the Swans' ability to convert inside 50s into goals, sitting 15th over the past month and change.
And it looks even worse when breaking down their drop offs versus opposition.
Differentials look at key statistical areas between clubs in any given contest, and in this case, the Swans.
Below is being utilised to assist in identifying where the plummet has come from in-game, on average.
Differentials
| 2024 avg. | Past 5 weeks avg. | |
| Kicks | 6.7 | -17.6 |
| Inside 50s | 3.6 | -3.6 |
| Intercept Poss | -0.4 | -2.2 |
| Loose ball gets | -4.7 | -15 |
| Clearances | 1 | -5.4 |
| Contested possessions | -1.7 | -10.2 |
| Marks | -0.6 | -15.2 |
| Scores from stoppages | 10.3 | 5.8 |
| Scores from turnover | 9.3 | -22 |
| Def. half scores | 10.5 | -1.2 |
| For. half scores | 7.7 | -16.2 |
| Tackles inside 50 | -0.5 | -3.2 |
| Metres Gained | 288 | -172 |
As mentioned, Longmire's side have struggled to create scores from turnovers in the past weeks, but have actually lost the count by around four goals per week (skewed by the Power's domination).
Sydney's forward kick-mark game that tore opposition clubs up in the first two-thirds of the season resulted in the ball moving swiftly from one end to the other, yielding a positive metres gained facet of their game.
For the past five weeks, the Swans have been lacklustre in this part of the game, meaning rivals have either put a stop to their surge and/or are cutting through their defensive systems too easily.
It is with that that from the outset Sydney has lost its edge; its point of difference; its modus operandi.
Admittedly, the loss of key personnel to injury such as Justin McInerney, Tom Papley, Dane Rampe and James Rowbottom has undoubtedly had a huge influence on the club getting its game going.
But across 2024, the Swans are still first for the least players used (31), hinting at a sense of consistency and stability in the lineup.
And up until recently, they hadn't had personnel challenges like Brisbane and Collingwood have, who have used 37 players each.
As we know, a new week rolls around and a new opportunity presents itself.
Sydney's 112-point loss to the Power was labelled "utterly unacceptable" by Longmire himself.
And despite back-to-back weeks of un-Swans-like performances, you would expect a response against the revitalised Pies.
You know former Magpies Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams will relish in the notion of knocking the club that didn't want them out of finals contention.
But we have seen stranger things in season 2024.
