Sydney's downfall in 2025 has come as a shock to the AFL world, but a host of statistics can explain why.
Following the Bloods' second grand final defeat in three years, the replacement of John Longmire as coach with Dean Cox, and no discernible movement from a list perspective, the mountain already seemed too high to climb.
And yet, the wide and long injury contingent made the near-impossible seem unfathomable.
Prime movers Errol Gulden and Tom Papley have rarely, if at all, been sighted in 2025, while a functionless forward line compounded by the lack of availability from their three emerging talls only made matters worse.
As a result, first-time coach Cox had to delve deep into his kit bag to put together a worthy team that has been operating under the tag line 'the Bloods'.
The constant role switching and uncertainty around the style of play has left the Swans in a deep hole, and their 14th ladder-placing has done it justice.
But what was once a strength of Sydney, which took them to the last Saturday in September in recent years, was their elite kicking, and the ability to retain the ball.
Key metrics such as turnovers, kicking effiency, threat rating (a measure of how often a player's kicks result in a shot at goal later in the chain compared to expectation), and retention rating (a measure of how often a player's kicks are retained by a teammate compared to expectation) provided byย WheeloRatings, has offered an insight into the Swans slide.
| 2024 | 2025 | |
| Kicking efficiency (%) | 67.3 (7th) | 63.6 (14th) |
| Threat Rating | 0.24 (10th) | -0.83 (12th) |
| Retention Rating | 1.73 (5th) | -0.92 (15th) |
| Turnovers | 66.8 (9th) | 68.8 (1st) |
The pinpoint and arguably intoxicating kicking game has gone out the window under Cox, which has seen dramatic dropoffs in kicking efficiency and retention rating.
As a result, the turnover metric has dived, although only by an extra two per game, it shows where the club ranks among the rest of the competition.
This drop in kicking efficiency also has a commanding impact on the club's ability to transition the ball, whilst also defending the ground.
In 2024, the Swans were the second-best at scores from turnover, recording a positive difference, on average, of 9.0 points. Brisbane, who toppled Sydney in the grand final, averaged 14.3 points for the season.
This year, that number has dropped to -5.9, sitting above the rebuilding trio of West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond, as well as Port Adelaide and Essendon.
A further deep dive indicates the considerable regression of ball movement and the impact it can have on scores.
The Swans, through the precise kicking and their handball game, were top three for chains to score in 2024. This year, they are 13th.
| 2024 | 2025 | |
| Chain to Score | 22.4 (3rd) | 19.4 (13th) |
| D50 to F50 | 24.4 (6th) | 21.7 (10th) |
| D50 to Score | 9.9 (7th) | 8.2 (14th) |
| Def. Half to F50 | 32.2 (8th) | 32.6 (7th) |
| Def. Half to Score | 13.6 (5th) | 12.9 (10th) |
The drop in kicking has also led to an inability to transition the ball as effectively from one end of the ground to the other, ultimately leading to a lesser chance of scoring from the back half.
The old adage of 'the best defence is a good offence', rings painfully true in the AFL, and in this case, Sydney.
Last year, the Swans ranked first for points for, and in turn, seventh for points against. The script has been flipped on its head, with Cox's men sitting 12th for points for, and subsequently 14th for points against.
Heavy losses in the past two weeks to Melbourne (53 points) and Adelaide (90 points) have skewed the numbers against Sydney, but ultimately represent an accurate depiction of the troubles at the Bloods.
A chance to turn the tide could come as early as this week, with a clash against Richmond set for Saturday at the MCG.
The Tigers, remarkably, could draw level on wins with the Swans if they were to replicate the corresponding contest from last year, and claim the victory.
Better still, the mid-season bye couldn't come quick enough, and the hope of returning troops may help Sydney put one foot in front of the other.
