We are about to embark on one of the most unpredictable finals series ever, from a season with more unknowns than knowns.
After the Bulldogs pulled off a stunning premiership upset from seventh position last year, it is plausible that any one of the eight finalists could win this year’s flag. The pre-finals bye which was introduced last year add further intrigue, giving each side a considerable break and freshen-up before the finals series.
Every year, we see new heroes and villains born in finals, some more predictable than others. Some players go missing when the lights are on brightest, while others thrive on the big stage.
A lot of the hysteria surrounding playing a final is mental, it is just another game of footy and those who can harness the pressure, respond best to it. Some make the mistake of playing the game inside their own heads before they run out onto the field.
A few days out from one of the most anticipated finals series in recent memory, we look at each finalist's most important player, biggest X-factor and player who most needs to lift to take their side to the promised land.
ADELAIDE
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – EDDIE BETTS
The 175-centimetre dynamo was named an All Australian for the third time this year, ranking in the top three this year for tackles inside 50 and goal assists in the competition.
Eddie Betts’ 49 goals this season ranked sixth in the league and he is the most likely goal source on a team filled with weapons. Betts must consistently produce and reach into his bag of tricks if the Crows are to win the flag.
X-FACTOR – BRODIE SMITH
The Crows rely on rebound attack to instigate their scoring and Brodie Smith is usually the one to initiate such plays. Smith ranked second in the competition this year for meters gained and is one of the most damaging, rebounding defenders in the league who slices up defensive zones. In a tight, congested final, Smith must find space where there is none to get the game on Adelaide’s terms.
NEEDS TO LIFT – RORY SLOANE
It may be harsh to criticise a player who was named in the 40-man All Australian squad and is coming off two strong performances, but there are two Rory Sloane’s that exist and the Crows need the better one to show up. That is if he returns in time from appendix surgery.
Sloane has shown a tendency to get tagged out of games this year and go missing far too regularly. When this happens, Adelaide struggle to compete inside.
You can never question Sloane’s defensive game, but his clearances and contested ball winning abilities are pivotal to launch Adelaide into attack.
GEELONG
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – PATRICK DANGERFIELD
Patrick Dangerfield claimed his fifth All Australian honour and could have been on his way to consecutive Brownlow Medals if not for a contentious suspension in Round 19.
Averaging 30.3 disposals, 5.9 tackles and booting 38 goals for the season, the Cats superstar ranked first in the competition for contested possessions and clearances this year.
He will start in the midfield but can swing up forward if Geelong need more ammunition. A big finals series from Dangerfield could carry Geelong to its 10th VFL/AFL premiership.
X-FACTOR – DANIEL MENZEL
Finally free from the injuries that cruelled the infancy of his career, Daniel Menzel kicked 38 goals this season, his best ever in a home and away season. Menzel adds another dimension to Geelong’s forward line that could make all the difference.
His ability to provide a strong cameo takes the pressure and attention off Tom Hawkins and opens up the Cats’ forward line.
NEEDS TO LIFT – STEVEN MOTLOP
The difference between Steven Motlop’s best and worst is perhaps the most significant of any player in the competition. When he is up, firing and kicking goals, he is unstoppable, and so are Geelong. When he is down, he fumbles, turns the ball over and can go unsighted in games over big stretches.
Motlop does not necessarily have to dominate games, but must provide something special at pivotal moments, like we know he can. A premiership medal would silence his critics, at least momentarily.
RICHMOND
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – DUSTIN MARTIN
Fresh off being named an All Australian for the second time and signing a mega seven-year deal to remain at Richmond, Dustin Martin is seemingly in the perfect headspace to have a massive finals series and ignite the Tigers.
The likely runaway winner of the 2017 Brownlow Medal averaged 30.3 disposals this season and kicked 32 goals. He ranks in the top three in the competition for inside 50s, score involvements and meters gained.
Not many people fancy the Tigers to win their first flag since 1980, but if Dusty dominates like he has all year, they are every chance to.
X-FACTOR – TOBY NANKERVIS
Richmond is finally getting value out of its ruckmen, as the side won every game this year when Toby Nankveris kicked one goal or more. Nankervis averages the most disposals of any finalist ruckman and is capable of beating any of them around the ground.
Has had a stellar first season for Richmond since crossing over from Sydney and will want to carry his strong form into September.
NEEDS TO LIFT – JASON CASTAGNA
Jason Castagna may have only played 27 career games, but he is more important to Richmond’s premiership prospects than what his experience suggests. Castagna went goalless over the last four weeks of the home and away season and barely touched the footy.
When he is up and running, Castagna is a real live wire that can break games open. The small forward must hit the scoreboard for Richmond to kick a winning score in the coming weeks.
GWS
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER– JOSH KELLY
The 22-year old Kelly has enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 for GWS, averaging 29.2 disposals and 6.3 tackles and was named an All Australian for the first time. He has become a goal kicking midfielder, booting 18 goals for the season, averaging just under a goal a game.
Now, Kelly needs to shine on the finals stage as his side’s premier onballer, something his teammates were unable to do last year. Anything less than his best will make it difficult for the Giants to make a premiership run.
X-FACTOR – TOBY GREENE
Toby Greene averaged 18.4 disposals and 2.6 goals this season and completely transforms the GWS side when he is up and running. After missing out on making the All Australian team and being often criticised this year for his aggressive demeanour, Greene must play with a chip on his shoulder and continue to play on the edge, but ultimately let his footy do the talking.
NEEDS TO LIFT – STEVE JOHNSON
If there is one bloke who knows what it takes to win finals, it is Steve Johnson, but his current output will not cut it. Having announced that this season will be last, Johnson will have one last hoorah to become a four-time premiership player.
He is on track for one of his lowest goal kicking seasons and has not provided enough forward pressure for a side that thrives off turnovers. He will need to recapture some classic Stevie J magic to turn his and the Giants' recent fortunes around.
PORT ADELAIDE
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – ROBBIE GRAY
There may not be a more dangerous attacking player in the league with ball in hand. Robbie Gray won his third All Australian guernsey this year after a stellar 47-goal campaign for Port Adelaide.
He has not always been 100 percent healthy this year, but only needs a sniff in the contest to have an impact. Gray also ranks first in the competition for goal assists, signifying how creative and unselfish he is.
X-FACTOR – CHARLIE DIXON
Charlie Dixon could be the best, or worst forward in this finals series. He has had a strong season, kicking 46 goals and providing an intimidating presence up forward.
Dixon was brought to the Power to give them a target inside 50, and now is his opportunity to deliver for them when it matters. If he can fire, Port Adelaide could re-enact the Bulldog’s 2016 fairy tale run.
NEEDS TO LIFT – JASPER PITTARD
Jasper Pittard has had an up and down season, even being dropped at one stage. His run and carry propel Port Adelaide and give them a strong link from defense to attack that not many other players on their list can.
He must provide a spark and have those mid to high 20 disposal games if Port are to be a threat.
SYDNEY
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – LANCE FRANKLIN
Lance Franklin is arguably the most talented, damaging player in this year’s finals series. The Swans will go as far as Buddy takes them. His 69 goals this season earned him a fourth Coleman Medal and seventh All Australian guernsey.
Buddy has been known to explode on the finals stage and no matter how much attention the opposition put into him, you cannot keep a champion down.
X-FACTOR - ZAK JONES
Zak Jones has taken his game to new heights this year and upgraded his identity to more than just being known as Nathan Jones’ brother. Averaging 20 disposals off the wing and half back for the Swans, Jones has provided Sydney with run, speed and line breaking abilities.
His hustle and finesse will now be more important than ever before if the Swans can make a premiership tilt from sixth position.
NEEDS TO LIFT – DAN HANNEBERY
At the peak of his powers, Dan Hannebery is one of the heavyweight midfielders of the competition. His form this year has not been up to its usual standards, as he has averaged 24.8 disposals, his lowest return since 2014.
Hannebery forms a commanding midfield foursome with Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Isaac Heeney, unmatched by any other finals team. However, like a well-oiled machine, if one part does not work, it will not run as smooth.
ESSENDON
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – JOE DANIHER
Joe Daniher joined the elite forward ranks in 2017, kicking 62 goals and being named an All Australian for the first time. Daniher is a nightmare to match up on, being equally dangerous in the air as he is at ground level. His set shot accuracy has improved and he provides good forward pressure for a 200-centimetre giant.
Daniher has all the tricks to make some real noise for the Bombers this September, don’t discount his ability to single handily cause an upset.
X-FACTOR – ANTHONY MCDONALD-TIPUNGWUTI
There may not be a greater barometer in the league than Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. A cult hero that gives Essendon crowds a booming voice, his insurmountable pressure and lightning pace lifts the team and they feed off his energy. He kicked 34 goals and ranks fourth in the competition for tackles inside 50 this season.
NEEDS TO LIFT – DAVID MYERS
David Myers could have been anything for Essendon, but has been hampered by injuries over his career. He has struggled to cement a spot in the Bombers’ senior side this season, never building any consistent form.
He has all the tools to be a great asset for Essendon’s midfield and now is his chance to repay the faith the club has shown in him and contribute on the finals stage.
WEST COAST
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER – JOSH KENNEDY
Josh Kennedy was named in the All Australian team for the third time this year after narrowly missing out on a third consecutive Coleman Medal, kicking 65 goals for the season despite missing five games through injury. Kennedy still managed to finish second for contested marks inside 50 in the competition.
He is the most imposing forward target in the league and also possesses a dead eye set shot for goal. A monster that not even the game’s best defenders can stop.
X-FACTOR – SHANNON HURN
Shannon Hurn is one of the most underrated players in the league. His ability to control a game from the defensive half and set West Coast up gives them a playing coach to marshal the troops.
Averaging 19.8 disposals and six marks, Hurn’s ability to read the play, intercept and counter attack causes havoc for the opposition.
NEEDS TO LIFT – NATHAN VARDY
West Coast recruited Nathan Vardy from Geelong to give them support in the ruck given injuries to Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett and provide another target inside 50. In the absence of the aforementioned duo, Vardy has filled the role well, playing 20 games, his best return in an injury ravaged career.
However, he needs to have more of an impact if the Eagles are to have a big impact in the final, starting with a huge assignment against Port Adelaide and Paddy Ryder this weekend.
Vardy has averaged 23 hitouts per game this season and has kicked nine goals, but must have a big game to help West Coast progress past the elimination final.
