The Melbourne Demons are fun again.
Whether they're winning or losing this season, the footy public is paying attention.
Despite doing more of the latter than the former in recent weeks, plaudits have to be given for the way this side is approaching their football. It's one thing for their first-year coach to front the media and promise fans a watchable and entertaining brand, but it's another entirely to stick to those guns when results fail to frank their approach.
That's the challenge confronting this storied club, after back to back losses for the first time in Steven King's short tenure.
On the other hand, Collingwood appear to be stuck in no man's land, with their coach conceding that they're a "middle of the road" team, following their hard-fought loss to the Bulldogs, last time out.
The Victorian powerhouse have beaten those they should this season, and lost, occasionally in rather pitiful fashion, to those above them on the ladder.
If there exists a saving grace for this most experienced of football sides, it is their big game expertise. It's hard to recall a marquee fixture in recent years where the black and white haven't given an exemplary account of themselves. Collingwood fans know they will get non-negotiable effort from their side when the lights are brightest.
And in a standalone, marquee, public holiday fixture such as the Big Freeze - an iteration made all the weightier by Neale Daniher's devastating recent passing - the lights will be blinding, and the eyes of the code will be firmly fixed on one of the game's oldest rivalries.
Can the Demons play with the reckless abandon that's seen them topple fancies like Hawthorn, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, in front of a full house at the MCG, against a Magpies side that has had their measure, on Monday afternoon?
Let's see what the numbers say.
Embracing ball movement trends
Gaining territory by hand is most certainly in vogue this season, with the most dangerous sides stringing together exciting, slick passages of handballs through the corridor.
Monday's combatants are doing their best to mimic such a style, with "Fly's Pies" third in the league for metres gained by hand, and the King's Demons, sixth (517.6 metres to 381.9 metres per game).
Front-half pressure and subsequent scoring are also hallmarks of the modern game, and a hallmarks the Demons are embracing. Per Wheelo Ratings, King's side are averaging the fourth-most points from a forward half origin, while Collingwood are below the AFL average in this metric.
The Demons appear to have found more of a balance by foot, however, knowing when to take the game on, and when to play it safe.
They rank eighth in the league for threat rating by foot (that is, the aggressiveness of a given kick), while their counterparts are 14th.
However, the Demons are also in the top four for kick retention rating (that is, the safety of a given kick), where they are joined by Collingwood.
In short, one side can both take risks and play it safe, while the other is far more conservative, with only the result of Monday's clash determining which method is more effective.
Hardness in contest and clearance
The Demons, for all of their flashy brilliance in front of goal, still do the tough stuff very well. They're sixth in the league for both contested possessions and clearances, while the Magpies are 16th and 18th in those respective categories.
It's difficult to overcome deficiencies in such crucial areas, as Collingwood are finding out this season.
Jordan de Goey looks back to his best, allowing the mercurial Nick Daicos to impact scoring up forward. Max Gawn and Kysaiah Pickett are, again, on All-Australian trajectories.
Will centre ball-up dominance dictate outcome of this clash?
Defensive acumen and accountability
They may not win it out of the middle often, but the Magpies set up so well behind the play that scoring from stoppage wins can be a challenge for their opponents. Only three sides in the league concede fewer points from stoppage than the Magpies, while only two struggling sides in Essendon and Richmond concede more than the Demons.
If the Magpies can win more clearances than they have been, the Demons appear vulnerable to scores from this source.
Elsewhere, the Magpies, led by experienced generals, take the fifth-most intercept marks in the league, while the Demons rank 12th.
As touched on previously, scoring from forward-half origins is pivotal in the modern game, and the Demons do it very well, scoring the fourth-most points from this source. However, in what shapes as an 'unstoppable force against an immovable object'-style battle, only the rampaging Fremantle Dockers concede fewer points from the front half than the Pies.
In total, Collingwood concede the sixth-fewest points in the league, at 82.9 per game, while only battlers West Coast, Essendon, Richmond and North Melbourne concede more points than the Demons' 97.4. Melbourne find themselves, constantly, in entertaining shootouts, but will Collingwood's stinginess win the day?
Scoring profiles
The Demons' entertaining style of play, and the games it creates, are the talk of the town, and it's reminiscent of the high-octane brand that was synonymous with Collingwood earlier in McRae's tenure.
Being ruthless and punishing on turnover fuelled McRae's early offences, but nowadays, the two sides are barely separable in points scored from this source - 53.2 to 52.7 points per game, in the Pies' favour.
The Demons average just under 10 individual goal scorers per game - the most in the league, while Collingwood average the AFL's average of eight.
The Demons average 14.7 goals per game, and 99.2 points per game, to Collingwood's 11.9 goals per game, and 82.8 points per game, and even hitting those markers will be difficult for the Pies in the absence of maestro, Jamie Elliott.
Discipline on the big stage
Lastly, discipline will play a part in this one.
The Demons average the most frees against in the league, with the Pies sitting just behind, in third.
Two sides with fiery characters aplenty, and plenty of reasons not to like each other.
The lists look different now, but Maynard's hit on Angus Brayshaw, and Darcy Moore's role in Christian Petracca's devastating injuries (the handling of which led to "Trac's departure from the club), linger in the air above this contest.
Dating back to that fateful Qualifying Final in 2023, the Pies have won five straight against the Demons, with three single-digit margins in those five fixtures.
Expect crowd involvement, skirmishes, and the umpire's whistle to play a part in this one.
