The Sackometer – created by Stats Insider – are results of an algorithm designed to rank each AFL coach, with several areas put into focus. The Sackometer delivers rankings based on variables surrounding recent performance, bookmakers line, length of time as coach and experience of players available.
These advanced analytics give fans an insight into how much pressure they are under in their role as senior coach. The list ranks the coaches, with week by week updates and movements relating to team performance.
Coaches are ranked by a scale of a zero-sum equation, meaning a coach is meeting the average expectation – as expected by coaching peers – at zero. The higher the score outlines less pressure, while the lower the score, the more heat falls on the coach.
The Sackometer is a data-driven method of measuring pressure, and delivering these numbers can be brought down to various factors. For example, using the ‘bookmaker’s line’ is basically viewing the spread of points. If a team covers the line they beat expectation – moving them higher up the rankings.
Another variable is coaching tenure, it’s rather unfair to be comparing Sydney’s John Longmire with second-year coach Stuart Dew on the Gold Coast – who has coached under 50 games.
These numbers don’t necessarily mean a coach is ready to be fired if he was ranked last, but it does mean the heat is on.
AFL SACKOMETER – updated weekly
The only coaches who sit above the sum of 1 are Geelong’s Chris Scott and Greater Western Sydney’s Leon Cameron. Rounding out the top three is Fremantle’s Ross Lyon – who would largely benefit from the ‘coaching tenure’ variable – has been able to boost his side back into finals contention in 2019.
This week, Lions coach Chris Fagan shot up six spots with a ranking of 0.95, thanks to his side’s 56-point victory of the Saints. Also moving up is Swans coach John Longmire, who despite being heavily linked to the senior job over at North Melbourne, has coached well under pressure with limited players available.
A narrow victory over the Dogs had Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley on the edge of his seat. Despite Collingwood sitting a game clear on second spot, the Sackometer has delivered results relating to the Magpies current form, with a focus on how they continue to ‘win ugly’.
Following premiership coach Adam Simpson, Essendon’s John Worsfold rounds out the eight. The Bombers were coming off two victories before a lacklustre performance against the Eagles saw Worsfold’s rank drop three spots.
The first coach below zero this week, Don Pyke of Adelaide currently has a score of -0.06 and although that might seem harsh given Adelaide’s improvements – he’s one big win away from skyrocketing back up the ranks.
Plenty of minor shuffling towards the middle-to-bottom end, with all of Stuart Dew, Ken Hinkley and Luke Beveridge trading places from 10th to 12th.
The sum then dips, with a large gap between Beveridge (-0.26) and Richmond coach Damien Hardwick (-1.16), albeit Hardwick’s impending rise with a crop of experienced Tigers returning to the senior team.
Also moving up two spots, on the back of a much-needed win over the Dockers is Simon Goodwin of Melbourne, followed closely by experienced mentor Alistair Clarkson.
Finally, we see St Kilda’s Alan Richardson the major loser over the weekend’s action.
There’s no doubt with the Blues and Kangaroos already hosting caretaker coaches that Richardson is engrossing the hot seat. The Saints currently have an 89.7% chance of missing finals, which would see them finish outside the eight for the eighth straight season.
Richardson has never taken his side there throughout his tenure, despite fast approaching the second-most games coached in the clubs history.
Source: STATS INSIDER