Attempting to predict the unpredictability of season 2017 has been an exercise in futility. Unexpected results have thrown finals predictions into chaos since the last Run to September three weeks ago.
The incredibly even season has produced a logjam from fifth to 11th and a fierce fight for the final spots in September. With two rounds to go, we are still no closer to finding out which teams will make the final few spots in the eight and which teams will have to wait another year.
Collingwood is the latest team to be mathematically eliminated from finals contention, after a 27-point loss to Port Adelaide last weekend.
- Adelaide (15 W, 4 L, 1 D)
The Crows have mathematically secured a top two spot and two home finals. One win from their final two games will guarantee the minor premiership. A draw and a loss would also likely be enough for the minor premiership, given the sizable percentage gap on the Giants and the Cats.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Sydney (AO)
- Round 23: West Coast (DS)
2. GWS Giants (13 W, 5 L, 2 D)
The Giants look to have finally recovered from their mid-season form slump. The boys from Western Sydney have now won three games on the trot and are building nicely towards their second finals campaign. Their final round clash with Geelong should decide which team earns a top two spot and with it, two home finals.
Games to come:
- Round 22: West Coast (SPO)
- Round 23: Geelong (SS)
3. Geelong (13 W, 6 L, 1 D)
Geelong's win over Richmond last week put them ahead of their Punt Road rivals. They have all but cemented another top four finish as they currently sit one-and-a-half games ahead of the fifth placed Swans and sixth placed Port Adelaide. They must win this weekend to have any chance of stealing a top two finish from the Giants, who they play in Round 23.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Collingwood (MCG)
- Round 23: GWS (SS)
4. Richmond (13 W, 7 L)
The Tigers' loss to Geelong last weekend may expose them to the chasing pack. They now sit in fourth, one game clear of the Swans and Power who both have superior percentages. But they should be safe from the three teams sitting on 11-9 (unless they lose both their remaining games). Last week's defeat may also mean another daunting away trip to Adelaide for week one of finals. They should start as favourites in their games to come, and must convert both for any chance at a top four finish.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Fremantle (DS)
- Round 23: St Kilda (MCG)
5. Sydney (12 W, 8 L)
Sydney have all but sewn up an eighth consecutive finals berth (and 19th appearance in 21 years), which looked near impossible after six rounds. The Swans are a game clear of the three 11-9 teams and need only one win to secure a home final. Their fans should be safe in the knowledge that their destiny is in their hands, but they cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal as two losses and other results could see them miss finals entirely. With the level of football the Swans have been producing, they should be safe and could even challenge GWS, Richmond and Geelong for the double chance if they slip up.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Adelaide (AO)
- Round 23: Carlton (SCG)
6. Port Adelaide (12 W, 8 L)
Like Sydney, Port Adelaide enters the final two rounds well placed to feature in September and can still mathematically sneak into the top four. Unlike the Swans, however, Port's form has hardly been impressive. With a massive percentage advantage, they need only to win one more game to secure a finals place and should start as favourites in their remaining fixtures.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Western Bulldogs (MSB)
- Round 23: Gold Coast (AO)
7. Melbourne (11 W, 9 L)
The Demons are poised to feature in their first finals series since 2005, but could just as easily miss September if they are not careful. Games against Brisbane and Collingwood to come puts them in the box seat. Top four is still mathematically possible, but would require big wins in their remaining games and big losses for Richmond.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Brisbane (MCG)
- Round 23: Collingwood (MCG)
8. West Coast Eagles (11 W, 9 L)
West Coast's percentage of 105.7 gives them the upper hand compared to the teams below them. Like the rest of the teams on 11-9, two wins guarantees a finals berth. Barring a catastrophic collapse from Sydney and Port Adelaide above them, their Round 23 game against Adelaide will be the final AFL game at Subiaco, with the new Perth Stadium due to be ready for the start of the 2018 season.
Games to come:
- Round 22: GWS (SPO)
- Round 23: Adelaide (DS)
9. Western Bulldogs (11 W, 9 L)
Two wins may not be enough for the Bulldogs, whose abysmal percentage of 98.3 may be the deciding factor to whether they can defend their premiership. They are the last team at 11-9 and will need other results to go their way if they are to feature in September.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Port Adelaide (MSB)
- Round 23: Hawthorn (ES)
10. Essendon (10 W, 10 L)
Essendon will need two wins and other results to go their way if their comeback story is to have a happy ending. But their major advantage is their percentage, with a figure similar to Melbourne and West Coast. They should start their remaining two games as favourites.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Gold Coast (MS)
- Round 23: Fremantle (ES)
11. St Kilda (10 W, 10 L)
St Kilda's season has gone downhill since their impressive Round 16 win over Richmond and with percentage worse than the Bulldogs, their finals hopes are disappearing fast. They must win both games and win handsomely to be any chance to play in September.
Games to come:
- Round 22: North Melbourne (ES)
- Round 23: Richmond (MCG)
12. Hawthorn (9 W, 10 L, 1 D)
Every game is now sudden death for the Hawks. Their slim September hopes rely on a very specific set of results to occur. In addition to winning both games, they need West Coast and the Western Bulldogs to lose both games and St Kilda and Essendon to lose at least one game for an extremely unlikely finals berth.
Games to come:
- Round 22: Carlton (ES)
- Round 23: Western Bulldogs (ES)
