It's a tantalisingly straightforward proposition: win and you're in.
That's what's at stake for the Western Bulldogs ($1.32 with TABtouch) and Fremantle Dockers ($3.40 with TABtouch) in arguably the most significant game of the season so far, with the eighth-placed Bulldogs hosting the seventh-placed Dockers at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. Befitting the occasion, the mind games got started early.
“We've been in these situations before,” Dockers coach Justin Longmuir said on Wednesday. “The pressure is on them, isn't it? Last time I checked, they've won one less game than us.”
As Longmuir alluded to, the unfortunate aspect for the Dockers (15 wins, seven losses) is that despite the Bulldogs (14 wins, eight losses) being a win behind, the Bulldogs' enormous percentage (140.3%) ensures they would leapfrog the Dockers with a win. If the game goes as the bookies suspect it will, this would leave the Dockers (108.6%) precariously in eighth.
From there, the opportunity would open for the Gold Coast Suns (14 wins, seven losses), who have two matches left on their schedule. Firstly, Saturday night's meeting with the Port Adelaide Power at Adelaide Oval, followed by the long-awaited make-up game against the Essendon Bombers at People First Stadium, scheduled for Wednesday night.
For the loser of the Dogs and Dockers game, waiting as the Suns play out those two games would be like death by a thousand cuts, watching on helplessly and barracking for bottom-six sides to save your season. Currently, the Suns are heavily favoured in both those matches, $1.25 against Port and $1.03 against Essendon on TABtouch. The Suns (121.2%) would need just one.
The Dockers and Dogs have history, and it is largely even. In 41 games since 1995, the Dogs have won 21 and the Dockers have won 20. They've also split their last four, with the Dockers winning their most recent outing in round four, a 16-point victory at Optus Stadium. The two teams have also played in previous blockbusters.
One of the Dockers' most stirring victories was a 2022 elimination final win over the Western Bulldogs, when Justin Longmuir's side stormed back from 41 points down.
It was a seminal moment for what was an emerging Dockers side, with a young Caleb Serong (33 possessions) and Andrew Brayshaw (32 possessions) starring at Perth Stadium. Memorably, it was also just the second game of Jye Amiss, who slotted two crucial goals.
For those Dockers fans thinking history can repeat, Amiss, a much more rounded player in 2025, is $2.85 on TABtouch to kick two or more goals on Sunday. Serong is $2.55 to repeat his 30-plus possessions heroics in this encounter, while Brayshaw is $3.15 for 30 or more on TABtouch.
The biggest x-factor of them all is literally ruckman Luke Jackson, who is under a slight cloud after spending the week based in Melbourne. Not that Longmuir is concerned.
"Come Sunday, it won't be an issue at all,” said the Dockers coach. “He's been in contact with the coaches, he's watched our reviews.”
Jackson, like new recruit Shai Bolton, brings premiership-winning experience to this Dockers side. Currently, the Dockers are long odds at $51 to win the flag this year. To get there, they know what they have to do next.
Win.
Be a part of the action with TABtouch. Odds are subject to change from time of publishing. Place a Same Game Multi and combine up to 16 legs for bigger odds.
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