Everyone wants to win the flag but the reality is that at least half the competition is almost no chance every season. That doesn't mean there's nothing to hope for though.
Every club's situation is different, for some it's more wins, for others it's finals and for a select few, only the premiership will do.
With the AFL's unpredictability being one of its major draws, there's always the chance of a miracle season or a sudden upswing in form. Likewise, there's just as much chance of a nightmare campaign in terms of both form and injury.
As we look across the competition, the passing marks for the year will all be different. Simply saying premiership or bust is not reflective of where the majority of clubs are placed.
With that in mind, here are our pass marks for each AFL team for 2023.
After yet another mediocre season, the Crows find themselves under pressure to show signs of progress. Having not made finals since their disastrous grand final loss in 2017, the club is desperate to get back to where they feel they belong.
With coach Matthew Nicks, as well as the players under scrutiny heading into 2023, there is no doubt there will be certain benchmarks set internally for 2023 for the season to not be deemed a failure. First and foremost will be winning more than eight games and pushing for finals.
It's also likely that more games and greater roles for top-end talent like Riley Tilthorpe, Josh Rachele and Chayce Jones will be a focus. These players shape as crucial to the club's future, along with new recruit Izak Rankine, who the club will be desperate to see hit the ground running.
Anything short of a finals push will be a big problem for both the Crows and Nicks, as season 2023 is already shaping as career-defining for those at West Lakes.
Pass Mark: 9-10 wins
It may seem harsh but given recent seasons and the quality of their recruits and draftees, Brisbane head into season 2023 knowing that a grand final appearance is likely the bare minimum for a pass mark.
Having brought in Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston and Conor McKenna, along with Wil Ashcroft, considered the best player at last year's draft, the depth of talent at the Lions is scary. The challenge will be where to fit them all in, which is a nice headache to have.
Brisbane have featured deep in September over the past several seasons and will be expecting the same as a bare minimum in 2023, however, to consider the season a success, they should be aiming for a grand final and perhaps the elusive flag that this group of players crave.
Pass Mark: 15-17 wins and top four
After exploding out of the blocks to start 2022, Carlton looked certainties to finally feature in September again. However, some old habits crept in that, when coupled with crucial injuries, cost them dearly.
There simply cannot be a repeat in 2023. This Carlton list is too good to be missing finals footy. The key focus for them will be to keep their top 10-12 players fit and on the park, something that is already off to a bad start following the news that Sam Walsh has a stress-related injury in his back.
That aside, the Blues will not make excuses and will view playing consistently at their best every week as a bare minimum. For season 2023 to get a pass mark, Carlton will need to feature in September, something they are more than capable of achieving.
Pass Mark: 13 or more wins and finals.
The Pies surprised everyone in 2022, playing an exciting brand of footy that took them deep into September and agonisingly close to a grand final appearance. Having shown what they are capable of, the challenge now will be to prove that it was no fluke.
A tougher fixture awaits, yet the club will get another pre-season into the likes of Nick Daicos, Jack Ginnivan and Ash Johnson. They have recruited heavily so will be keen for the likes of Tom Mitchell, Daniel McStay and Bobby Hill to have an immediate impact.
The Pies have set themselves a benchmark now and while they won the most games in the competition by under 10 points last season, they will have the confidence to believe that they can repeat that level of success. Going deep into September must be the expectation now, an exciting 2023 awaits for Collingwood fans.
Pass Mark: 14-16 wins and finals.
Consistency, consistency, consistency. This will be the mantra at Tullamarine after recent seasons, where this list has flattered to deceive. At times they look like a finals contender and at others, they look like a bottom six side.
Season 2023 is time to find out who the real Bombers are and they're off to a strong start with Brad Scott at the helm. Known for getting the best out of his charges, Scott will ensure his players bring consistent effort.
This team is one of the biggest wildcards in the competition in terms of predictability, so for the year to be successful, they will want to make a finals push and change their headline as unreliable mavericks.
Pass Mark: 8-10 wins and finals push.
Put simply, for the Dockers it's top four. Having acquired Luke Jackson, as well as another year of development into the likes of Andy Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Hayden Young, the sky's the limit.
The loss of Rory Lobb may hurt their structure but Jackson more than makes up for that, who along with Sean Darcy may just form the best ruck duo in the competition. Their list is in terrific shape, with an even blend of youth, experience, top-end talent and role players.
Fremantle should be aiming for top four and possibly, a second grand final berth. They will have enough home games to secure a finals spot, with their fate to be in their hands on the road.
Pass Mark: 15-17 wins and top four.
After 2022, the Cats will be content, yet don't expect them to rest on their laurels. This club likes to make a habit of proving the doubters wrong and continuing to challenge for a flag year after year.
Despite the loss of icon Joel Selwood, the list is still in seriously good shape, while they have again been shrewd with their acquisitions. Opposition fans won't like it, but landing Jhye Clark and Jack Bowes for almost nothing was a masterstroke.
Likewise, Tanner Bruhn and Ollie Henry appear to be great additions to an already very deep list.
Top four with a view to playing another grand final should be the benchmark for the Cats, however top four and their new recruits to blend seamlessly into their lineup would be a pass.
Pass Mark: 16-18 wins and top four.
It's been a tough few years for the Gold Coast, yet to feature in September and consistently losing their top-end talent, something needs to change. There does appear to be some light at the end of the tunnel however.
Season 2022 had its ups and downs, yet 10 wins hinted at progress being made, while under the excellent leadership of Touk Miller, the on-field standards appear to have lifted. Losing Izak Rankine was a blow however, so the club will still want to prevent any more departures.
If the Suns can win 10 or more games and make a push for finals, then at the very least, they will know they are on the right track. Having said that, time is running out and they simply must become relevant sooner rather than later, so a maiden finals berth should be the focus, particularly with star forward Ben King returning from an extended injury layoff.
Pass Mark: 10-12 wins and finals push.
Like the Crows, the Giants haven't been the same since being dismantled by the Tigers in the grand final. They've lost some stars in that time, most notably Jeremy Cameron, Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
Having gone back to the draft for the past couple of years, the onus is on this club to bring through their young talent as quickly as possible. Their bold strategy to trade up for the number one pick helped them get their top target in Aaron Cadman.
For 2023 to be a success, they'll certainly need to win more games, yet the manner in which they lose will also be important. If they can stay competitive while pumping games into the likes of Finn Callaghan and Cadman, they can consider it a pass.
More importantly however will be retaining their high draft picks while empowering the likes of Tom Green, Lachie Ash and Sam Taylor to take the reigns as future leaders of the club.
Pass Mark: 7-9 wins.
The Hawks have undertaken an incredibly bold approach under Sam Mitchell, focusing heavily on youth with a view to stockpile as much young talent as possible. While 2022 wasn't a disaster, this club has lofty standards and will want to be back in September sooner rather than later.
Having traded away the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara and Jack Gunston, Hawthorn are thin on experience, yet that won't worry them. Mitchell is intent on installing a young group of players to lead the charge for their next tilt at a flag.
This season looms as a dangerous one if things go wrong, however if they can win a few games and avoid the wooden spoon, there is no doubt they can consider that a pass.
Pass Mark: 6-9 wins and no wooden spoon.
Season 2022 didn't go as planned for the Dees, having started like a house on fire, they lost form and momentum, with off-field issues creating distractions. Losing Luke Jackson didn't help, particularly after they didn't fire a shot in the second half of their loss to Brisbane in the finals.
Yet this list is still good enough to compete for the flag and gaining Brodie Grundy to team up with Max Gawn has added another element of intrigue to this season. The key will be avoiding injuries and suspensions to key players.
The likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, Ben Brown and Jack Viney are all crucial to their hopes, coupled with their powerful midfield trio of Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver.
The Demons will be aiming to get back to the last Saturday in September, anything short of that can't be considered a pass.
Pass Mark: 16-18 wins and top four.
The past two years have been disastrous for North Melbourne, with back-to-back wooden spoons forcing the club to make some drastic moves. There was perhaps none more drastic move than appointing the greatest coach of the modern era in Alastair Clarkson.
Having boldly traded out former number one pick Jason Horne-Francis, as well as their number one pick in last year's draft, the Kangaroos still managed to secure two of the top four best young players in the country, while also banking some capital for the future.
After a two-win season, there isn't a high bar to jump over to have a better year in 2023, however Clarkson will have high standards in place and will be eyeing not only more wins, but a more competitive game style.
Should they win a handful of games, get a good amount of senior footy into their high draft picks and avoid the spoon again, the year can be deemed a pass.
Pass Mark: 4-8 wins and avoid the wooden spoon.
Port Adelaide are another club in the finals or bust bracket, having missed finals in 2022 following successive top two finishes, in a disastrous season. Finishing so high in 2020 and 2021, they failed to make the grand final despite their incredible form arguably deserving one.
Coach Ken Hinkley has been at the helm for 10 years and is well aware this list is good enough to make the last Saturday in September. Having lost some experience in recent years, most notably club icon Robbie Gray, the onus is firmly on the youngsters of the playing group.
The likes of Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma, Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis, Todd Marshall and Mitchell Georgiades need to stamp themselves as the next group of leaders at Alberton.
If this young core of extremely talented players can drive a push back up the ladder to finals, this season can be considered a pass.
Pass Mark: 11-14 wins and a finals berth.
The Tigers enter 2023 full of confidence, but they'll also be praying that the type of injuries and setbacks that typified 2022 are not repeated. Particularly when it comes to their star players.
They can ill-afford to lose Dustin Martin, Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Dylan Grimes or Shai Bolton for lengthy periods. With a clean bill of health, the list is more than capable of challenging for another flag, particularly with the big-name recruits they have brought in.
Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are two very handy inclusions, allowing the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton to rest forward and wreak havoc, while also taking the pressure off Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin.
If Richmond can finish top 6 and go deep into finals, this season can be considered a pass, however that is unlikely to satisfy this driven group of players, who no doubt view a mythical fourth flag as a must.
Pass Mark: 14-17 wins and top four/home finals.
It's pretty simple for the Saints, they have spent a decade doing very little, either wallowing at the bottom of the ladder or floating in the middle, falling short of finals due to their Jekyll and Hyde nature. They can't afford irrelevance any longer.
With new-old coach Ross Lyon in the box seat again, they will be desperate to recapture the sort of form that saw them make back-to-back grand finals more than a decade ago. Standards need to improve, as well as leadership and most importantly, consistency.
The only way this season can be considered a pass will be a finals appearance, for which they have recruited heavily via trade and free agency. They may have changed their focus to youth in recent off-seasons, but there is no denying this team needs to play finals again soon.
Along with that, the club needs to see A-grade potential from some of their recent draftees, given their list has a genuine lack of elite talent that doesn't stack up against the best. Time will tell if 'Ross the Boss' can work some magic.
Pass Mark: 11-14 wins and a finals berth.
As such a positive story in 2022, the Swans were extremely disappointing in the most important game of the year.
While they were genuinely outplayed, their year deserved a better finish.
The challenge now is to go again and reach those same heights. With a good blend of experience and youth on the list, the Swans will nevertheless be hoping that the young talent can step up to another level for season 2023.
There may be regression, teams that lose heavily in grand finals can often find it tough to bounce back, but the famous Bloods culture should be strong enough to see them respond and return to September action. Anything short of that and the season should be deemed a failure.
Pass Mark: 14-17 wins and a home final.
The Eagles have a nice low bar to jump over, just win more games than last season and avoid COVID outbreaks in the squad. Following an injury and off-field controversy ravaged 2022, there is pressure on an imbalanced list not to have another shocker.
If they can keep star players like Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Jeremy McGovern fit, they will at least see an improvement on the sort of availability issues that saw them have just 22 players available at one stage in season 2022.
While they are clearly in a rebuild phase, they should still be aiming to be far more competitive than 2022, with a view to avoiding the wooden spoon.
Achieve this and they can consider it a pass mark for what is shaping as a long season for Eagles fans.
Pass Mark: 4-6 wins and avoid the wooden spoon.
The Bulldogs will want just one thing for 2023 apart from September and that will be for the footy world to be talking about what is happening on the field, rather than off it.
Season 2022 was full of unnecessary distractions which masked, at times, ordinary on-field performances.
There's absolutely no doubting they have the cattle, and now the tall timber, to feature in September and cause headaches. What remains to be seen is if the focus is where it needs to be in a crucial season for a list in its prime.
For 2023 to be considered a success, the Doggies will need to feature in September, while a deep finals campaign would be proof that they are still a force. Finals footy, a quiet off-field presence and their tall timber not to become a weak link would be a pass for the Sons of the West.
Pass Mark: 13-16 wins and finals football.