It's been a nice five weeks from Essendon, but we've seen this movie before, haven't we?
It's like a cross between Groundhog Day and Scarface, when, in a desperate act of futility, a coke-addled Tony Montana tries to wake up his dead little sister Gina after she had her body riddled with bullets.
Well, in the Bombers' case, Gina too often represents their season in recent years, and Tony too often represents the Bombers.
No matter how well Essendon play out the remainder of 2022, their season has been dead for quite some time.
And make no mistake, the Bombers have looked like a different team since the halfway point of the year.
They've beaten top-four contenders Brisbane and Sydney, as well as finals aspirants St Kilda and Gold Coast, and it would come as no shock if they break Collingwood's eight-game winning streak on Sunday.
But the problem is, they began their resurgence when they were 2-10 and their 2022 campaign shot to ribbons.
It's continued a frustrating trend for the Bombers dating back to 2017, when they started the year 5-6, before winning seven of their last 11.
In 2018, they were 2-6, before winning 10 of their last 14. In 2019, they were 3-5, before finishing up 12-10. Last year, they were 2-6, before losing only five of their next 14 games.
Further maddening the Bombers' supporters is the fact that the one year throughout that whole stretch when they did actually make a hot start in 2020 (4-1), they did the reverse and collapsed in a heap, winning just two of their last 12 matches.
In their first 12 outings this year, Essendon averaged just 70 points, and in their last five games, that figure has skyrocketed to 100 points. Why is that so?
On the face of it, it looks like Essendon are a team that cannot cope with heightened expectations and when there is something actually to play for, ie. finals, they get paralysed by stage fright.
Remember all the hype surrounding them over the summer after they defied expectations in 2021 to sneak into the finals? Their midfield, in particular, was getting pumped up enormously, and rightfully so after how well Darcy Parish, Jake Stringer and Zach Merrett performed the previous season.
But the first game this year against Geelong set the tone. The Bombers looked like a side that was believing their own hype, and summarily got blown off the park by a much more mature team, treating a would-be up-and-coming side with disdain and contempt. And when you see where the Cats currently find themselves on the ladder, that first-round match really did serve as a portent for things to come for both teams.
The Dons didn't recover from that game, and subsequent matches against another pair of premiership contenders in Brisbane and Melbourne in the next two weeks obliterated any remnants of confidence the Bombers may have developed over the summer months.
In fairness, Essendon have had to contend with injuries to key players for much of the season, and no area of the ground felt this more keenly than their forward line.
Of their top five goalkickers from last year, Cale Hooker retired, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti failed to play before retiring too, Harry Jones didn't make an appearance until Round 11, and Jake Stringer managed just four games in the first half of the year. Peter Wright, the sole member of that group, has been magnificent in holding down the fort while producing his career-best year with 42 goals and counting.
Few teams in the league could cover those losses and put up competitive scores regularly, let alone a team at the same stage of development as Essendon.
In addition to that, Nik Cox (12 games), Kyle Langford (12), Will Snelling (12), James Stewart (13) and Michael Hurley (17) have all missed massive chunks of the season.
However, that still doesn't excuse the slow, cautious, timid style of footy that the Bombers played as their finals hopes quickly evaporated before their eyes in the first half of the year.
Now, instead of chipping the ball around, going sideways and giving the opposition plenty of time to set up in front of the ball, Essendon are belatedly playing to their strengths.
They're throwing caution to the wind and taking the opposition on with bold, daring, attacking play full of speed, flair and dash.
Now, obviously, this style of footy leaves you vulnerable on the counter, but it's reaping huge rewards for the Bombers, and they must resolve to hit the ground running in season 2023 by making sure they play in the same manner starting from Round 1.
And by all means, they should finish off this season as strongly as they can by winning as many games as possible, but it will count for nothing if they don't parlay that momentum directly into the March next year.
As Essendon's finals win drought nears two decades, they simply have no more excuses left to offer up.
They have shown in the last month or so that they clearly have enough talent to be a top-eight side, so playing in a way that doesn't accentuate their strengths, as they so often do when the season is alive, will be unacceptable next year.
No team in the AFL has a bigger first 11 games in 2023 than Essendon does.
