Last Season:
Adelaide were the surprise packet of 2017, propelling to the top of the ladder as the AFL’s newest powerhouse. No task was more daunting than traveling to Adelaide Oval to play the Crows.
The Crows were the most balanced team of 2017, possessing a stout defence, deadly attack and supreme midfield. All over the ground they had match-winners, including a new raft of talent shining through. Their role players were clicking and suddenly this was the highest functioning unit in the game, as sound as any team before them.
The Crows dominated the 40-man All-Australian squad, boasting a league-best eight players. Rory Laird and Matt Crouch earned honours in the 22 for the first time after outstanding breakout seasons, while Eddie Betts received his third All-Australian cap.
But a harsh reality of our game is that no matter how good you are during the season, it counts for nothing if you do not perform on that last Saturday in September. And the Crows were beaten by a savage Tigers team that were hungrier on the grand final stage.
Adelaide fans should now be familiar with this quirk. The two years where they have finished top of the ladder have not delivered the cup, while their two premierships in 1997 and 1998 came from fourth and fifth ladder placings respectively. Yes 2017 was a swing and a miss for Adelaide, but fans have plenty to be excited about moving forward.
Off Season grade:
In: Bryce Gibbs, Sam Gibson, Darcy Fogarty (Pick 12), Andrew McPherson (Pick 40), Patrick Wilson, Lachlan Murphy, Jackson Edwards
Out: Sam Shaw, Scott Thompson, Troy Menzel, Dean Gore, Jake Lever, Harrison Wigg, Charlie Cameron, Jonathan Beech
Off season grade: B
The losses of homesick duo Jake Lever and Charlie Cameron are significant, but both can be covered due to the Crows’ outstanding depth. They did well in landing three first-round draft picks for players who wanted out. Adelaide have been immensely resilient when losing key personnel in recent times (most notably Patrick Dangerfield), therefore they should not suffer too much.
The addition of Bryce Gibbs is a massive one, who was one of the game’s premier midfielders in 2017 after his best season yet. Gibbs averaged 26.8 disposals, 5.2 marks, 5.9 tackles per game in 2017 and is in the prime of his career. He could take his game to even greater heights for a Crows outfit that will feed him more possessions.
Sam Gibson is another handy pickup who adds midfield depth and has never averaged less than 21 disposals per game for North Melbourne.
Defining period:
The Crows have one of the tougher draws in 2018 but open the season with six of their first nine games at home. Five of these nine opponents finished in the bottom half of the ladder in 2017. They would want to be 7-2 through this period.
Adelaide play Richmond, Port Adelaide, GWS and Melbourne twice who could all be challenging for the top four in 2018. Their toughest stretch of the season comes during round’s 16-21, where they play the Tigers, Cats, Demons, Power and Giants, as well as the Lions at the Gabba.
This will test a team that is aspiring for another top two finish in 2018 and they will need to perform strongly down the stretch to carry momentum into finals.
Champion Data Suggests…
Their front end is always strong, and it’s the same again this year, rating as the forth best attack. Eddie Betts and Tom Lynch rank as the third and fourth best general forwards, with Taylor Walker rated as an elite key forward.
The addition of Gibbs, who is 29 years old, coupled with losing two quality players under the age of 23, has seen the Crows list profile change significantly over the last 12 months.
Heading into 2017, they were the fourth youngest and fifth least experienced side. They will start their 2018 campaign as the second oldest and the sixth most experienced side in the competition. Six Crows rank in the top 10% of their position, with a further five ranking in the top 35 percent of their position.
The Crows are in it for the now, and why wouldn’t they be after falling one step short of the ultimate prize in 2017.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths
The Crows generated the most turnovers in the defensive midfield/forward half combined in 2018. Half of the competition’s scoring comes from this source, so it is no wonder they were so red-hot from turnovers.
Once the opposition went inside 50, Adelaide was the third-hardest team to score against, conceding a score 43 percent of the time, where only Sydney and Richmond were better. Therefore, they defended the front half and their defensive 50 strongly.
Their attack is uncompromising. In 2017, they averaged 110 points per game, 11 more than any other side. Once inside 50, they kicked a goal 28 percent of the time, which ranked first in the league. Add that to an average of 58 inside 50s per game, ranked second, and you had a very powerful combination.
They yield some of the slickest ball movement we have ever seen and advance the ball from defence to attack better than any side in the competition. Their ability to slingshot the ball and produce fast breaks is also elite.
Put simply, they do the things that are critical in the modern game sublimely – defend well, intercept, generate a ton of inside 50s and score efficiently. There is no reason to think why the Crows’ cannot back up these outstanding numbers in 2018, if not improve on them.
Weaknesses
There is not much lacking in this Crows’ team, the only thing that went wrong for them last season was their final two hours of footy, which were the most important 120 minutes of the season.
The most significant area of the grand final that let the Crows down was their contested possessions. It had been a strength all season, but in the big one they lost the count by 30, their third-worst performance of the season. It meant the game was played in Richmond’s half, where Adelaide could not produce the stellar skills that got them to the big dance.
The Crows must therefore figure out some sort of plan B. When it is not going their way and they are playing against a vigorously tough team that defends well, they must manufacture a game plan to stop this, and get the game back on their terms.
Don Pyke and the Adelaide coaching staff’s inability to seize the Tiger’s momentum and reverse it may be the single thing that cost his team the grand prize last year. This is not to blame Pyke for their shortcomings, but you did have to wonder if the Crows were capable of winning a more grinding, congested game of footy.
Prediction
1st
The Crows were the benchmark of the competition last year and they will be hurting from such a disappointing grand final performance where they went in favourites. The off season would have been a long, gruelling one for the club, but now they get their chance at redemption.
History shows that teams who lose in big finals generally come back bigger and stronger. A vast portion of their list is still young and rising, while none their older players like Betts, Josh Jenkins or Sam Jacobs look even close to declining.
There is a lot to like about this Crows team and there is no doubt that Pyke and the coaching staff would be working overtime during the off season to ensure they come back bigger and better. The pride of South Australia could flex their muscles in 2018 and add a third premiership to their history.
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