Dual Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow arrives in the Harbour City beleaguered by expectation.
Curnow boasts one of the competition's most recognisable brands after spending a decade spearheading a Victorian powerhouse in Carlton.
In the same way, his exceptional play was emblematic of the Blues' when they surged back into relevance in 2022 and found themselves five goals to the good early in an away preliminary final in 2023, as his output dipped in an underperforming side in 2025.
The Torquay native averaged an impressive 67 goals per campaign from 2022-2024 before registering just 32 majors in 2025. Admittedly, his body allowed him just 18 outings last season, but his goals per game and general impact on a given contest were both hindered, so much so that he was deployed further up the field despite forging a reputation as one of the game's premier stay-at-home forwards.
Sydney paid a pretty penny for his services, sending a favourite son in Will Hayward, as well as three first-round draft selections, to procure the 28-year-old. He adds to a long lineage of rockstar key forwards to make the move to the Swans at the peak of their powers, with Tony 'Plugger' Lockett, 'Big Bad' Barry Hall and Lance 'Buddy' Franklin all defecting from Melbourne-based clubs in the last 32 years.
Of that trio, only the volatile Hall tasted ultimate success in the red and white. And while Curnow will look to join him as a premiership player for the Swans over the course of his five-year deal, there are some more immediate targets for 'King Charles' to aspire toward that, upon their potential completion, could define his move as a success in the immediate term.
So what is a pass mark for Curnow's red and white tenure?
For starters, Curnow must re-establish himself as a perennial Coleman contender. Chris Keane and co. did not mortgage the Swans' future on a timid iteration of the talismanic frontman. It is not enough for Charlie to play a supporting role, so as not to hinder the development or output of lesser names in the Swans' front third. Swans coach Dean Cox seemingly knows as much, doing little to quell the expectations dogging his boom recruit.
"And so they should be high," Cox offered in October.
A positive regression to his mean of 67 goals per campaign would be a massive tick in his first year in new clobber, and would see him back in the mix for honours like a third Coleman Medal and third All-Australian blazer. Given the stellar service he can expect from a Swans midfield littered with premium talent, 70-odd majors would be a success.
In order to reach that marker, the Swans must get their man's body right. Prior to the trade, with finals out of the question, Carlton shut Curnow's season down, electing to have his troublesome knee 'cleaned up'. It is one of many such setbacks Curnow has endured since his 2015 drafting. Such setbacks mean Curnow's first game for Sydney will be just his 150th game, while other members of his draft class, like Dan Rioli, Eric Hipwood and Josh Dunkley, hover around the 200-game mark.
Curnow, in full flight, bests defenders on the lead, wins aerial one-on-ones, and creates space with smart forward craft. None of those features of his game are possible while nagged by injury, as evidenced by his inefficacy last season. 20+ games in his first season in Sydney would be a success.
Furthermore, early forecasting has the Swans firmly entrenched in finals calculations, thanks in no small part to Charlie's arrival. Once they presumably arrive in September, however, the Swans faithful will be hoping Curnow is one leopard who does change his spots.
In three finals appearances, all in the September of 2023, Charlie was unremarkable, averaging one goal and one behind, as well as the five marks, per game. Only five times that season did Curnow have fewer than six marks, and two of them were finals. On only three occasions that season did Curnow register fewer than 10 disposals, and two of them were finals.
Even in home and away matches of magnitude, Curnow has a penchant for inadequacy. Collingwood fans have been dining out on their Round 23, 2022 victory over the Blues in the years since, such was the nature of the memorable comeback, and the consequences of such a choke for their oldest rivals. Carlton missed that year's finals series on percentage, losing their last four matches of the home and away leg when a solitary victory would have guaranteed a finals berth. The Blues led by 25 points early in the final stanza of the clash with the Pies before being overrun by a runaway train.
Curnow kicked 2.5 that day. Crucially, two of those behinds came in the most tense of final terms. The first was the result of playing on and snapping around the corner, as opposed to taking his set shot routine from a very gettable angle and distance. The second was a rushed snap taken while draped by two defenders, with an open Jesse Motlop burned in the process. This decision making hardly endorses Curnow as a player reliable under pressure.
The Swans did not recruit Curnow to beat up on cellar dwellers, as he has done in the past. It was an aggressive, win-now, needs-based move that necessitates influence regardless of circumstance, or quality of opposition.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Swans will feature in plenty of marquee matches of consequence in the 2026 season. When these matches occur, Curnow performing as he does in matches of lesser significance would be a success.
70+ goals, 20+ matches, and an influence in games of significance - can Curnow be the catalyst for a Swans side desperate to contend again?
