Following a week of upsets, there is plenty of excitement heading into Round 6, as any club can win on any given day. With that in mind, each club will be eyeing up a certain statistic that could swing the game their way this weekend.
There's a lot at stake this week in the land of AFL, so let's deep dive into the key stats that could determine your team's fate.
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs – uncontested possessions
What is clear from five games of football, is that both the Bulldogs and Saints love to control the possession. The Bulldogs and Saints rank second and third respectively for disposals per game (381.4 and 378.4), and are two out of four teams that average over 100 marks per game. However, they key metric that ultimately displays their control is uncontested possessions.
The Bulldogs sit on top of the uncontested possession rankings at 248 per game, whilst St Kilda are fourth in the league at 234. Both clubs' desire to slow down the game and pick holes through the defence is the key for Thursday night's clash.
In last year's 51-point smashing, St Kilda beat the Bulldogs by 26 in uncontested possessions and 48 in disposals, indicating that their control of the footy meant the Dogs lost control of the game.
This match looms to be tight, with both sides pressing for a top eight position, and controlling the tempo will determine the result.
Adelaide vs Essendon – marks inside 50
Adelaide rebounded in emphatic fashion with their win over Carlton, and will look to back it up against the Bombers. Last week the importance of capitalising on inside 50s was mentioned for the Crows, and they did exactly that, recording 18 marks inside 50.
The Bombers have had similar inconsistencies too. In their win against the Bulldogs, Essendon had 15 marks inside 50, but in their defeat to the Power, they only had five.
Therefore, marks inside 50 are clearly the key for both sides this weekend. Adelaide currently sits last for inside 50s per game (8.8), reflecting their 1-4 start to the year. Essendon stands in seventh which, once again, is reflected in their ladder position of ninth.
If Essendon are to have a better performance at the Adelaide Oval, or if the Crows are to continue winning, it comes down to marking inside 50 and capitalising on their forward entries.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide – inside 50s
Currently, Collingwood are lacking in the forward line. They are ranked 14th for shots on goal per game, whilst Port Adelaide is first (23.2 and 32.4 respectively). This issue is not exclusive to the forward line though, but also from the work of players higher up the field.
Collingwood are currently 16th in the competition for inside 50s per game. Although they were never an extremely attacking premiership side, inside 50s have significantly dropped in 2024 (52.7 in 2023 to 47.8 in 2024).
Against an all-out attacking unit such as Port Adelaide, who are first in the AFL for inside 50s, Collingwood could be blown away early in this match. However, if Collingwood match the Power's offensive playstyle, they could well and truly get their flag defence back on track.
In 2023, Collingwood beat Port Adelaide by 71 points at the MCG as they won the inside 50 count by 11. In Round 19, Collingwood lost the inside 50 battle by 13 and had to complete a classic Collingwood last-quarter comeback to scrape over the line.
Evidently, the Pies are capable of countering the Power, and with home ground advantage, they may get their third consecutive win on Saturday afternoon.
Carlton vs GWS – clearances
Carlton and GWS will have everyone glued to their devices on Saturday afternoon, as two of the comp's best sides duel at Marvel Stadium. The Blues are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Adelaide, whilst on the contrary, GWS kept their undefeated streak alive with a one-point win over the Saints.
Intriguingly, the Blues and Giants are very even across a range of statistics, but none of more significance than clearances. Split by just 0.2, the Giants and Carlton average the 15th and 16th lowest clearances per game (34.8 and 34.6). Despite this, the midfield remains the key to winning on Saturday evening.
Last year in Round 3, Carlton beat GWS in clearances by five, running out ten-point winners. Yet in Round 24, the Giants won the clearance count by eight, beating the ‘Baggers by 32 points.
This game could go either way, but the deciding factor will be the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, or Tom Green and Josh Kelly, to win the clearance on Saturday evening.
Brisbane vs Geelong – clearances
In another blockbuster match on Saturday, Geelong travel to the Gabba to take on Brisbane. In last year's clash at the Gabba, Brisbane dominated the midfield, winning 50 clearances to 21. It resulted in reaching a 37-point lead late in the third term, before Geelong stormed back to be within 11 points by the final siren.
This weekend, the currently undefeated Geelong unit will look to mend the clearance concerns, as they have done throughout the 2024 season so far. The likes of Tanner Bruhn, Patrick Dangerfield and Brandan Parfitt have lifted Geelong to the sixth-best clearance team in the comp, a vast improvement from 2023, where they ranked 14th.
However, they come up against the best clearance side, as Brisbane sit comfortably on top with 40 per game.
With Dangerfield returning from injury this week, it bolsters Geelong's chances in the guts, as the midfield battle once again appears as the key to knocking off the Lions.
West Coast vs Fremantle – inside 50s
The Western Derby returns, and could be more competitive than we imagined at the start of the year. Fremantle remain strong favourites of course, but inside 50s could be the stat that increases the Eagles' chances.
In West Coast's impressive win against the wounded Tigers, they were an extremely attacking side, notching 61 inside 50s, an increase of 11 compared to their season average. Repeat inside 50 entries can pressure the Dockers' defence, potentially opening up more scoring opportunities for the Eagles.
In addition, the Eagles average almost identical shots on goal to Fremantle (23.4 to 23.8). Whilst this merely indicates Fremantle's defensive style, it also shows that with enough attacking presence, the Eagles could produce more shots on goal than the Dockers.
Inside 50s are equally as important for Fremantle too. In their 101-point derby win last year, they had 29 more inside 50s than West Coast. Overall, whether there is another Eagles upset or not will be shaped by the inside 50 count.
Sydney vs Gold Coast – intercept and contested marks
In a game that will establish the quality of both sides, intercepts and contested marks are the vital aspects that Sydney and Gold Coast need to conquer on Sunday.
The Suns are second in intercept marks per game (19), thanks to the recent breakout of Mac Andrew, as well as core defenders Sam Collins and Charlie Ballard. The stronghold the Suns' defence has over their opponents has led to a positive record after five games.
The best way to negate the intercepting of the Suns is to take contested marks. The Bulldogs aced this in Round 2, clunking 16 to Gold Coast's seven.
However, Sydney is currently last in the league for contested marks per game, averaging just six. The Swans have been surprisingly poor in their last two matches, losing to Richmond and scraping past the Eagles in consecutive games.
If the Swans cannot prevent the intercepting ability of Gold Coast, Damien Hardwick's men may produce a stunning upset.
North Melbourne vs Hawthorn – contested possessions
With both clubs sitting 0-5, this game will be a scrappy, high-intensity game with either side having plenty to prove.
A lot has been questioned lately of the Roos and Hawks' midfielders, with lacklustre performances from both groups last round. Hawthorn's Jai Newcombe and Conor Nash had only ten disposals each against Gold Coast, whilst North Melbourne's Luke Davies-Uniacke had just three clearances against Geelong.
In a gritty game, getting physical and winning contested possessions will be a main factor in winning. Despite North Melbourne being ranked 18th, expect Davies-Uniacke and Tom Powell to increase their numbers on Sunday. Watch for Newcombe and James Worpel too, aiming to rebound after Round 5's poor effort.
