After a partial start to the 2025 season, with just two games played in Opening Round, the year will officially feel underway with the first of many nine-game rounds to begin on Thursday night.
Key statistical categories often determine how well your club performs, and indicate which side is controlling the contest. Last week, Sydney's scores off turnover was their key metric to watch. The Swans scored just 23 points off turnover on Friday, 32 fewer points than their 2024 average, resulting in a fairly comfortable loss to the Hawks.
With nine blockbuster fixtures to continue the season, we'll delve into the key statistical category that needs to be mastered for each mouthwatering Round 1 clash.
If the Tigers are to compete with Carlton on Thursday night, Richmond will need to vastly improve their ability to win a hard ball.
Richmond placed last for contested possessions per game in 2024, averaging just 121.9 per game, while the Blues averaged a league-leading 138 per game.
A similar discrepancy will undoubtedly see the Tigers outplayed and they could be staring at a large deficit by full-time.
However, the inclusion of powerful midfielder Sam Lalor provides a glint of hope that the 2024 Pick 1, alongside Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, can match Carlton's midfield consisting of Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh.
While the odds of a Round 1 victory are heavily stacked against the Tigers, matching the Blues' midfield could, at the least, create some headaches for Michael Voss' side.
Both the Hawks and Bombers thrived off of their midfield's clearance work in their previous respective matches - Hawthorn's Opening Round game and Essendon's practice match against Geelong.
The Hawks' dominance in the midfield was clear cut when James Worpel streamed away untouched out the front of the contest multiple times throughout the game, while Will Day and Jai Newcombe's ability to shovel the ball out in traffic continued to emphasise Hawthorn's dominance. The result was a +14 differential in clearances for the match.
Similarly, Essendon's 21-point Community Series win came from a +13 differential in the clearance count, spearheaded by youngster Elijah Tsatas (10 clearances) who looks primed to breakout in his third season.
With Worpel out of the clash with a syndesmosis injury sustained in Friday night's win, the midfield between both sides appears fairly even on paper. Hawthorn has the statistical advantage by averaging 1.2 more clearances per game than the Bombers in 2024, albeit it is a minor confidence booster.
Essendon have also been Hawthorn's bogey side in recent memory, with the Bombers claiming three consecutive wins over the Hawks. It suggests that this clash is no 'gimme' for the Hawks, heightening the importance of winning the clearance battle this Friday.
Geelong and Fremantle will be an intriguing clash of key forwards, as a rejuvenated pairing of Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale aim to outscore an emerging duo between Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss.
While Geelong ranked first for marks inside 50 per game in 2024 (13.4 per game), compared to Fremantle who ranked seventh (12.4 per game), the pairings rank near identically when isolated away from the other contributors.
Cameron and Neale averaged 2.5 and 2.1 marks inside 50 respectively, while Treacy and Amiss averaged 2.5 and two marks inside 50 each, indicating an even battle for this weekend.
Both sides are set to contend for a premiership in 2025, and have both added extra firepower to their line-up in the offseason. Dog-turned-Cat Bailey Smith offers accurate inside 50 entries from the midfield, while Shai Bolton can leap for marks inside the forward arc, as well as be a dangerous ground-level threat.
The Cats averaged a tick under 100 points at GMHBA Stadium last season, highlighting the attacking dominance they possess at home, and is hence why Treacy and Amiss' output is vital for the Dockers if they are to cause a boilover on Saturday.
Uncontested possessions damaged the Swans in the grand final last year, and in the heavily-anticipated rematch, Sydney will again strive to lock down the Lions in their first appearance since their premiership win.
Recording an absurd 267 uncontested possessions, the Lions blitzed Sydney with swift uncontested ball movement for a flurry of second quarter goals. The amount of Brisbane uncontested possessions was 45 more than their season average, which already ranked seventh in the league, as well as 26 uncontested possessions higher than Essendon's season average of 241 (which ranked first in the AFL).
Sydney's poor performance was also reflected in their low uncontested possessions for the game. Averaging 217.7 for the season, the Swans recorded just 189 on grand final day, only trumping West Coast's 2024 season average, highlighting the poor showing.
Both sides will be battling for their first win of the season, and whichever club can break the game open when holding possession will likely secure a crucial early-season victory.
With an injury-hit Bulldogs side heading into Round 1, the time is now for North Melbourne to take a scalp and claim a Round 1 win.
With midfield concerns surrounding the Bulldogs due to the notable absences of Adam Treloar and Marcus Bontempelli, the Kangaroos have an opportunity to capitalise on a strength of theirs.
Boasting top draft pick talents in the midfield, such as Harry Sheezel, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Colby McKercher and debutant Finn O'Sullivan, the Kangaroos' clearance numbers are expected to continue their upward trend from 2024.
Last year, the Roos averaged 36.9 clearances per game, which ranked the club tenth in the league, but above finalists Sydney and Hawthorn. It is evidently becoming one of North Melbourne's strong points, as young superstars continue to develop and emerge.
For the Bulldogs, a side who averaged the second-most clearances in 2024, it will be fascinating to see how they manage the exclusions of Treloar and Bontempelli. The two All-Australians ranked second and third for clearances per game in their team, while they ranked ninth and 16th across the entire league. Their omissions this week due to injury leave a large void and gives North Melbourne a sniff at an upset victory.
Collingwood's dismal performance against the Giants last week was compounded by their uncharacteristically poor scoring efficiency from their inside 50 entries.
The Magpies, who averaged an AFL-best scoring rate from 48.1% of their inside 50 entries in 2024, scored from just 40% of their forward arc deliveries on Sunday, recording just 22 scoring shots from 55 inside 50s.
The Giants proved scoring wasn't so difficult however, recording 29 scoring shots from one less entry than the Pies.
Port Adelaide scored from 45.7% of their entries in 2024, ranked sixth in the league, but were previously positioned higher before a poor back-end of the year.
In Collingwood's seven-goal Round 6 win over the Power, the Pies scored 38 times from 66 entries, an impressive rate of 57.6%. Port Adelaide on the other hand scored just 21 times from 47 inside 50 entries, a rate of 44.7%.
In their first home game, coupled with Dan Houston's first outing in Collingwood colours, the Pies will need to improve their efficiency against a fired-up Power side.
Clearances are equally important for the Crows and Saints this weekend, albeit for opposing reasons.
The Crows' disappointing 2024 season still had its positives, as the likes of Jordan Dawson, Jake Soligo, and Matt Crouch were supported at the bounce by livewire forward Izak Rankine.
Despite finishing 15th, the midfield quietly asserted themselves as one of the competition's best, averaging the sixth-most clearances per game, behind five eventual finalists.
Opposingly, the Saints will need to win the clearance to prove their midfield's competitiveness. Question marks have hovered over St Kilda's midfield, and with Mattaes Phillipou out of the side through injury, the Saints will once again be reliant on seasoned veterans.
If St Kilda can win the clearance, and be effective from those said clearances, it may help them shake the "one-paced" tag and make their claim as a competitive side in 2025.
Last week we mentioned the importance of rebound 50s for GWS, who utilise swift uncontested handball chains as part of their 'Orange Tsunami' gameplan. The Giants' Opening Round win can largely be attributed to this play style, with GWS recording the most rebound 50s out of any club in Opening Round (48).
The Demons too begin their attacks from the defensive half. In 2024, Melbourne ranked third for rebound 50s per game, averaging 41.8, while 40.7% of their scores originated from the defensive half of the ground. Only ultra-defensive sides St Kilda and Fremantle recorded a greater percentage of their scores from the defensive half of the ground, likely due to their respective structures.
With both clubs boasting star key defenders, counterattacking transitions from defused inside 50 entries will be a key determining factor in this clash, and rebound 50s will be a reliable indicator to prove which side is on top.
This metric was a glaring issue for Gold Coast away from home last season, and was often the catalyst behind their woeful travelling record.
Gold Coast ranked 17th for scoring shots per inside 50 entry in 2024, with a rate of 40.3%, ahead of only North Melbourne.
The Suns were stunned by the Eagles in their latest encounter, losing by 10 points despite recording six more inside 50s. It was of course their inability to capitalise on these entries that cost the Suns a win against a lowly West Coast outfit, scoring from just 42.3% of their entries, while the Eagles scored from 47.8%.
If the Suns are to capitalise on their strong list in 2025, they'll have to ensure they are more efficient from their entries inside the forward arc this season. A winning start away from home, without Mac Andrew or Sam Flanders too, will lay a confident foundation on which to build upon.
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