Goal kicking accuracy has been a hot topic of discussion for decades now. From the unbelievable 16.0 Tony Lockett kicked against Fitzroy in Sydney's 126-point thumping in 1995, to the record-breaking 0.8 Michael Byrne booted for Hawthorn against Melbourne 10 years prior.
But despite AFL clubs' unprecedented access to modern technology, including biomechanics analysis, kicking simulators, visualisation coaching, breathing techniques (even some as going as far as putting headphones on with intense crowd noise to simulate match pressure), goal accuracy across the AFL has idled, and for some clubs, even decayed.
So far in 2025, the goalkicking accuracy in the AFL is actually less than half; sitting at an underwhelming 49.1%. Let that sink in. Less than half of the shots on goal are accurate enough to go through a 20+ feet-wide goal line. Astonishing at first glance. Particularly when many of these footballers are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars every year to kick a ball through two posts. This may seem reductive or harsh, but is it wrong?
Ironically, the club with the best shot accuracy so far this year is the 17th placed North Melbourne, while one of the worst records is the second-placed - and flag-fancied - Collingwood Magpies, with just 45.3% shot accuracy. But why is this the case? Why do we seem to be going backwards despite the advances in coaching and technology?
Former Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson boasts the second-best career shot average of nearly 76% accuracy. His 62 games returned a 108.35 outcome, which if we are honest with ourselves, probably shouldn't be seen as a top record, but standard in our competition for our elite forwards who spend every day working on their craft. Dickson told AFL.com.au in 2016, that his secret was 'to keep the process simple.' But that is exactly what our system doesn't do.
Psychology at play: Pressure and fatigue in the modern game
AFL footy is more taxing now than at any other time in the sport's history. The mental and physical load on players is intensive and has an impact on performance like never before. Not only do they average around 25 hours of training each week during the season, but they also study teams, hone their technique, and get themselves mentally and physically fit to get up for every round. So, it's not surprising to think that by the time games come around, perhaps they aren't actually at their absolute peak.
Performance anxiety also comes into the conversation, with the media scrutiny (as we have seen with recent jabs thrown between people like Kane Cornes and the North Melbourne) and high-pressure moments, sometimes in front of 100,000 people - not to mention the millions watching at home - the pressure is penetrating.
I'm not sure I would be able to put one foot in front of the other with the pressure they face, but somehow, these blokes can kick it from 50m on a sharp angle and put it between the big sticks, well, 49.1% of the time.
Technique vs technology: Are clubs overthinking it?
When it comes to the overcomplication of kicking technique at AFL level, clubs are becoming far more reliant on technology to โfix' technique. Yet the evidence is clear, there has been no increase in results. From biomechanics to VR simulations, and slow-motion video analysis, it could be argued that these technological advancements may actually overcomplicate a skill that was once built on instinct and repetition.
Imagine doing something your entire life โ like handwriting for example โ then at the age of 25, someone comes along and tries to change your grip. Would it have better results? Or would your muscle memory try to kick back in, resulting in Year 1 level scrawl?
Structural and tactical pressure
One argument that is rarely discussed when it comes to inaccurate goalkicking is the poor โ or pressured โ inside 50 entries by the attacking team. Defensive lines are now coached to force inside 50 options to hug the boundary line. This, evidently, puts far more pressure on the shot on goal โฆ unless your name is Eddie Betts (it might even increase his chances).
These shut-down tactics of defenders in the modern game certainly differ from the traditional format of fixed-position AFL structures, not to mention the forward pressure and flooding techniques that are now coached. This is designed specifically to ensure more and more shots on goal are forced, under heavy pressure, or pushed out to be on tougher angles.
Fixing the basics
The question of the degree of intervention by clubs and coaching staff is critical. Players come in and out of form naturally, we know this. And sometimes a guiding hand from a specialist kicking coach can help get players back on track.
Clubs like the Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans (among others) integrate goalkicking drills into fatigue-based sessions to mimic real pressure. Some clubs employ ex-AFL sharpshooters like Matthew Lloyd, who work alongside key forwards to help with goalkicking. But how much intervention should clubs look to invest when a Tom Lynch, Ben King or Charlie Curnow fall out of form? Should we look to change their technique? Or let them find their rhythm again by themselves.
In an era of data, science, and technological advancement, the most basic skill of kicking a ball through the two big sticks remains as much about the years of training and muscle memory as it is about the specialised expertise. With less than half the shots on goal actually going through in season 2025 so far, we need to explore this area more.
If the old cricket saying of โCatches win matches' rings true, then I think our new AFL saying should be, โKicking straight, seals your fate'.
Fans need more of the Lockett 16 goals straight matches, and less of the Byrne 0.8. How do we get there? Well, as we know, Dickson said to keep things simple. So perhaps we need a little less data and technical approaches, and more player instinct and muscle memory at the forefront of coaches' minds.
