Each year it seems AFL fans are banking on a different player to rise above expectations to cap an All-Australian level season after years of middling performances.
High draft picks, adjusted roles or players in their early 20s showing glimpses of being elite create the most off-season buzz from December to March, and this summer is no exception.
In years past, pundits have pre-empted the breakout of Jake Stringer, Cameron Rayner, Errol Gulden and Charlie Curnow just to name a few. Some rise with the pressure, while others succumb to it.
In 2024, the fate of many teams rests primarily on the improvement of their young guns, some are hoping to fill a void left by departing greats and some are looking to bolster an area of the field for a particular team.
We've named five players who need a breakout campaign this year for the sake of their teams and their own career arcs.
The 201cm Blue is entering his sixth season in a side with flag-fancy status and should be motivated after a successful September campaign in 2023.
Last year was De Koning's career-best season, but only slightly.
He averaged a mere 12 disposals, 3 marks and half a goal per game, but shone on the grandest stages possible in front of 96,000 in Carlton's two-point semi-final victory over Melbourne.
His 15 disposals and 2 goals came with some big pack marks and kicked the Blues into gear after a slow start.
Now four months removed and with real premiership aspirations, pressure is on De Koning to display this form on a routine basis and become the point of difference on Carlton's list that lifts them to a flag.
Gold Coast is under more pressure than ever before to make the eight in their first season under three-time premiership coach Damien Hardwick.
Their most glaring weakness since the departure of former captain Tom Lynch has been their key forward production, with Ben King and Mabior Chol filling that hole occasionally.
Fully fit and entering his fifth year at the Suns, 202cm King has shown glimpses of stardom as the primary forward option for Gold Coast but simply doesn't touch the footy enough to inflict real damage.
1.8 goals and 3.5 marks is a good strike rate from less than eight touches a game, but highlights his susceptibility to going missing for long periods of play and failing to impact four quarters consistently.
Turning 24 in July, King should enter the season fresh off a full pre-season and rejuvenated under an established coaching great. 2024 could be the year he breaks into All-Australian discussion while helping the growth of prized draft pick Jed Walter.
According to his averages, Thilthorpe's career-best season was his rookie year, kicking 18 goals with 11 disposals per match in 14 appearances.
His production has plateaued since, thanks in part to Taylor Walker's dominance forward of centre, but he is still yet to show a clear improvement in any face of his game.
Granted, his role in the side is complicated with Walker and Darcy Fogarty playing first and second fiddle up forward and Reilly O'Brien taking the rucking reigns.
Though for Adelaide to climb into the eight and feature deep in September, they need a breakout year from their 202cm, 103kg big in his 4th season, both in the air and in front of goal.
Similar to Tom De Koning, he may only need to provide some pack marks and goal or two in a big game to be worth the investment and with the Crows expecting to compete with the best this season, 2024 is the year to step up.
The Bulldogs are in dire straits entering 2024 coming off consecutive disappointing seasons and a coaching department clean-out.
Their prized number one pick from 2020, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has steadily improved each year in the system, jumping from eight touches to 11 per game last year and nearly doubling his goal tally.
But with Aaron Naughton seemingly not the ideal key forward target for the future, the Dogs may look for Ugle-Hagan as the primary option inside 50 where, now in his fourth year, he has the potential to rip the league apart.
With an unimpeded run and jump at the footy, there are already only a select few players capable of matching Ugle-Hagan in the air with his leap and reach.
With some added muscle and improved accuracy in front of the sticks, 2024 may be the year of Ugle-Hagan as the Dogs look to swing their fortunes and compete deep in September.
Paddy Dow has the chance to completely flip his career arc from Carlton's number two draft bust to the missing piece in St Kilda's midfield.
Of late, off-season recruits have broken out with their career-best season, like Jordan Dawson and George Hewett have done the past two years. but for the sake of his AFL career, Dow is praying for 2024 to be his breakout party.
In a side begging for more midfield talent, Dow will have more chances than ever to star for the Saints under Ross Lyon, aged 24 entering his seventh season and fresh off arguably his four career-best games in consecutive appearances for Carlton last year.
He may be the third midfield option behind Jack Steele and Brad Crouch, pending the form of Seb Ross and Marcus Windhager, but he is no longer competing for spots with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and George Hewett.
While St Kilda's fate doesn't rest on Paddy Dow's 2024 production, his own future in the AFL might, making him one of the most under-pressure players of the year.