Per Wheelo Ratings, expected scores (xScores) are the average expected score per shot at goal, reflecting the average difficulty of shots taken. For example, a shot taken from the goal square will have a higher expected score than one taken from the boundary line at the 50m arc.

A player's expected score rating, or difference, is the margin between how many points they are expected score and how many they actually do. For instance, if a player takes a set shot with an expected score of 2.0 and they score a goal, their difference is +4.0. If they miss, their difference is -1.0.

While this metric has its strengths and weaknesses, it is a good indicator at which players are in form in front of goal and which are struggling. So, who's exceeding expectations this year and which players need more goal-kicking practice on the training ground?

Amongst the 108 players that have taken at least 20 shots at goal this season, one name stands above the rest: Bulldogs recruit Matthew Kennedy.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 21: Matthew Kennedy of the Bulldogs takes possession of the ball during the round two AFL match between Footscray Bulldogs (Western Bulldogs) and Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on March 21, 2025, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 21: Matthew Kennedy of the Bulldogs takes possession of the ball during the round two AFL match between Footscray Bulldogs (Western Bulldogs) and Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on March 21, 2025, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Kennedy has been a game changer since joining the Bulldogs. His versatility as a mid-forward ensured the Dogs remained competitive while dealing with Marcus Bontempelli's pre-season injury, averaging a career-high 25.1 disposals and 5.8 clearances per game. Since Bontempelli's return in Round 6, however, Kennedy has been shifted up forward and continued to excel. He adapted to the role immediately, kicking multiple goals on five occasions since then, resulting in him kicking almost 29 points more than expected.

In fact, in the Bulldogs' Round 9 loss to Gold Coast, Kennedy kicked three goals (3.0) despite being expected to score just 7.6 points. His deadeye accuracy, not just in front of goal but with his field kicking too, has been a massive boost for the Dogs in 2025.

Perhaps the most impressive player shooting above his expected rate is Collingwood's Jamie Elliott. Elliott's volume is by far the highest in the top ten, taking 59 shots across this season, third in the league. The two players with more shots, Jeremy Cameron and Mitch Georgiades, rank 23rd and 80th on this list respectively. Elliott's biggest xScore booster came in Collingwood's Round 12 win over Adelaide, where he bagged a six-goal haul. Those 36 points were 19 better than the 17 he was expected to score in this match, highlighting how he essentially won the game for Collingwood. The Pies beat the Crows that day by ten points, even while kicking 5.12 outside of Elliott's input.

Speaking of Adelaide, Darcy Fogarty has also been elite in front of goal this year. According to Wheelo Ratings xScores, Fogarty has contributed over seven goals more than expected in 2025, or more than 1.12 points per shot. Only he and Kennedy are adding over one point more than expected per kick this season, but Fogarty has done so with 14 more shot attempts.

On the flip side, the two most wasteful shooters in the AFL this season are both Brisbane Lions, perhaps unsurprisingly. Brisbane have been lamenting their inaccuracy all season, particularly Charlie Cameron, who has left nearly 29 points on the table across this season, or -0.76 per shot. Premiership teammate Hugh McCluggage trails closely, hitting the scoreboard in any form just 14 times from 22 shot attempts, dropping an expected 14.8 points.

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BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 06: Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal during the round four AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Collingwood Magpies at The Gabba, on April 06, 2023, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

Midfielders Patrick Cripps and Jason Horne-Francis have also struggled with accuracy this year, scoring over 0.5 points less per shot than expected. Tom Lynch, who has come under fire for his lack of form this year, also features in the bottom ten of the 108 qualified players, leaving over four goals (-24.58) on the table from his 46 shot attempts.

The following lists include the top ten and bottom ten players for expected scores (xScore), ranked by difference per shot (minimum 20 shots taken).

Rank Name Shots Goals Behinds xScore per game xScore total Actual score Difference Difference per shot
1 Matthew Kennedy 24 17 4 3.22 77.28 106 +28.72 +1.20
2 Darcy Fogarty 38 28 6 3.46 131.48 174 +42.52 +1.12
3 Jake Waterman 27 17 9 3.22 86.94 111 +24.06 +0.89
4 Josh Rachele 37 23 12 3.2 118.40 150 +31.60 +0.85
5 Callum Brown 25 15 5 2.97 74.25 95 +20.75 +0.83
6 Touk Miller 23 14 6 3.16 72.68 90 +17.32 +0.75
7 Ed Richards 25 13 8 2.8 70.00 86 +16.00 +0.65
8 Jamie Elliott 59 36 16 3.28 193.52 232 +38.48 +0.65
9 Jamie Cripps 31 15 10 2.58 79.98 100 +20.02 +0.65
10 Petter Wright 34 19 11 3.06 104.04 125 +20.96 +0.62

 

Rank Name Shots Goals Behinds xScore per game xScore total Actual score Difference Difference per shot
108 Charlie Cameron 38 14 16 3.39 128.82 100 -28.82 -0.76
107 Hugh McCluggage 22 7 7 2.9 63.80 49 -14.80 -0.67
106 Patrick Cripps 29 10 13 3.1 89.90 73 -16.90 -0.58
105 Tom Lynch 46 18 16 3.23 148.58 124 -24.58 -0.53
104 Jason Horne-Francis 28 10 11 3.08 86.24 71 -15.24 -0.54
103 Mitch Owens 42 18 12 3.39 142.38 120 -22.38 -0.53
102 Aaron Naughton 44 23 15 4.01 176.44 153 -23.44 -0.53
101 Patrick Voss 35 14 15 3.35 117.25 99 -18.25 -0.52
100 Bayley Fritsch 38 16 18 3.5 133.00 114 -19.00 -0.50
99 Jordan Dawson 30 10 15 2.97 89.10 75 -14.10 -0.47