The 2025 home and away season is nearing its close, with the final weekend upon us, determining the standings heading into September.
Despite the discourse surrounding the top nine's split from the struggling sides much earlier than previous years, Round 24 (and a half) has so much riding on the outcomes of each game.
But with 10 matches remaining, thanks to the postponed match between Gold Coast and Essendon, there is still plenty to play out regarding finishing positions.
The Suns pose as the biggest player, potentially rising from 9th to 3rd, while the clash between the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle will likely determine who features in September.
We break down the top nine teams' best and worst-case scenarios leading into the 2025 AFL Finals Series.
Adelaide
If Adelaide win...
- They'll secure the minor premiership for the third time in their history, and cap off a remarkable turnaround since finishing 15th in 2024
If Adelaide lose...
- They could still finish on top of the ladder, but are subject to Geelong's performance against Richmond.
The highest they can finish is 1st; the lowest they can finish is 2nd.
Geelong
If Geelong win...
- They would secure a top-two spot and claim a home final, but also put them in reach of the minor premiership, pending the Crows losing to the Kangaroos.
If Geelong lose...
- They put their top-two position in jeopardy, with Brisbane nipping at their heels and potentially leapfrogging them pending they defeat Hawthorn.
The highest they can finish is 1st; the lowest they can finish is 3rd.
Brisbane
If Brisbane win...
- They remain in contention for a top-two finish if Geelong slip up against Richmond.
If Brisbane lose...
- They could slip to 8th on the ladder, depending on results from Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS and Fremantle clashes.
The highest they can finish is 2nd; the lowest they can finish is 8th.
Collingwood
If Collingwood win...
- They remain in contention for a top-four spot and a double chance, albeit relying on Gold Coast's results, as well as the Brisbane and Hawthorn clash.
If Collingwood lose...
- They could slip to 8th on the ladder, depending on results from GWS, Fremantle, Suns, Brisbane and Hawthorn matches.
The highest they can finish is 3rd; the lowest they can finish is 8th.
Hawthorn
If Hawthorn win...
- They can push for a top-four berth and finish as high as 3rd, depending on results from Collingwood and Gold Coast.
If Hawthorn lose...
- They will sit as low as 6th on the ladder, but could slide to the final spot inside the top eight depending on GWS, Fremantle and Gold Coast results.
The highest they can finish is 3rd; the lowest they can finish is 8th.
GWS
If GWS win...
- They are within a shot of a double chance, but will need to thump the Saints to make up seven per cent, as well as rely on a Hawthorn win, Collingwood loss and beat out the Suns' percentage.
If GWS lose...
- It will see them travel for an elimination final. Where it will depend on the Gold Coast's final two matches.
The highest they can finish is 4th; the lowest they can finish is 8th.
Fremantle
If Fremantle win...
- They can finish inside the top four, depending on leapfrogging Brisbane or Hawthorn, as well as relying on the Giants, Pies and Suns to record defeats.
If Fremantle lose...
- They put their finals position in jeopardy, which will hinge on Gold Coast's final two matches.
The highest they can finish is 4th; the lowest they can finish is 9th.
Western Bulldogs
If the Western Bulldogs win...
- The top four are in their sights, especially given their handy percentage. But they will rely on losses to Hawthorn, GWS, Collingwood and Gold Coast.
If the Western Bulldogs lose...
- They put their finals position in jeopardy, which will hinge on Gold Coast's final two matches.
The highest they can finish is 4th; the lowest they can finish is 9th.
Gold Coast
If Gold Coast win both matches...
- They will likely claim a top-four spot given their percentage will surpass Collingwood's and Hawthorn's, but could also host a home elimination final.
If Gold Coast win one match...
- They will lock away a finals position for the first time in their history. They could finish as high as 5th, but could still slide to 8th position, depending on results from GWS, Collingwood, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs clashes.
If Gold Coast lose both matches...
- They will remain outside the top eight and miss the finals for the 15th consecutive year
The highest they can finish is 3rd; the Lowest they can finish is 9th.
