There is only a month of home-and-away football left before finals and there are a only few sides outside of the final eight who can make it from here.

From eighth to 12th there is just a draw separating all five teams, with the Giants amazingly leapfrogging all-comers to eighth on Sunday after languishing down in 12th prior to Round 19.

However, not all teams have an easy run into September and could ultimately live to rue their chances from earlier in the season should they fall short.

With West Coast in seventh, and two wins ahead of eighth spot, it would be wise for the time-being to eliminate them from this conversation as they are likely to stay there for the rest of the year.

Likewise with the Blues, who are win off 12th spot and will most likely not make the eight barring a Steven Bradbury-esque comeback.

Here are the thoughts of the Zero Hanger writers on who they think will sneak into the last spot.


Mitch Keating - Richmond

The Tigers have arguably the easiest run home amongst the chasers, heading into each of their four matches as likely favourites.

Key matches against Fremantle and the Giants are sure to decide their finish, while their other two matches come against the two lowest ranked sides for the season in the Kangaroos and Hawks.

Add in some of the key names that are in the frame to return to Damien Hardwick's side over the next month and the reigning premiers stand a great shout.

I'd argue GWS are the next likely suitor, but will likely need to snatch wins against two of Port Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond.

It may very well come down to the Round 22 clash between the Tigers and Giants, a matchup that saw Richmond four-point winners in the corresponding match of this season.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 06: Damien Hardwick, Senior Coach of the Tigers looks on during the 2018 AFL First Qualifying Final match between the Richmond Tigers and the Hawthorn Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 06, 2018 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Danielle Sorati - Essendon

The Bombers have the best percentage of any team competing for the final spot in the eight and if it wasn’t for their Round 1 brain fade against the Hawks they would be sitting in it.

They have a fairly comfortable final two rounds against Gold Coast and Collingwood and should be able to be competitive against the Swans.

The Bombers will also be hoping Dylan Shiel will be able to produce some of his All Australian form in the next few weeks after returning from injury, giving Essendon a boost that the injury hit Tigers don’t have.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Dylan Shiel of the Bombers looks dejected after the round one AFL match between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Essendon Bombers at GIANTS Stadium on March 24, 2019 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Benjamin Millard - St Kilda

The Saints haven't played horribly over the past two weeks in their losses, with accuracy being the deciding factor against the Power whilst going away to Optus Stadium against the Eagles was never bound to be an easy task.

Out of all the teams in contention for the finals they have shown the most promise over the last few rounds.

Their win against the Tigers was spirited and they were unplayable for large portions when they faced Brisbane.

Yes they will have to beat one of Sydney or Geelong to have a sniff, and yes their percentage isn't mind-blowing but there is just an inkling of something about the Saints, and when Max King is jumping at the ball the way he did against the Eagles, it's hard not to back them in.

AFL Rd 4 - St Kilda v West Coast
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 10: Max King of the Saints celebrates a goal during the round four AFL match between the St Kilda Saints and the West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium on April 10, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

 

Ella Gerrard - Richmond

Although the Tigers have lost Dusty and have a number of injuries, I still believe Richmond will make the top eight.

This is because they have the best round of remaining fixtures with all of their games being against sides outside the top eight, as well as a number of players said to return such as Prestia, Vlastuin, Astbury and Edwards.

They are the reigning premiers for a reason and on their day - which hasn't come often this year - can still be a huge force to be reckoned with.

GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - JULY 16: Dustin Martin lays on the ground injured during the 2021 AFL Round 18 match between the Richmond Tigers and the Brisbane Lions at Metricon Stadium on July 16, 2021 in the Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Ed Carmine - Richmond

It's not normally my nature to run to the beat of a conformist drum, but as the men from Tigerland are only set to face one side currently holding a rung inside the ladder's eight, they appear to be the front runners for the final spot in September.

Ahead of the season, I had both Fremantle and St Kilda in my top eight. However, with both clubs now facing the possibility of missing out unless they remain perfect for the remainder of the fixture, I can't see a repeat of last season for the Saints or a drought breaking appearance for the Dockers.

As the Giants run home looks nigh on impossible, and the Bombers may lack experience when push comes to shove, those wishing for a Tiger-less finals series may be fresh out of luck.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 15: Jack Riewoldt of the Tigers celebrates after scoring a goal during the round five AFL match between the St Kilda Saints and the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium on April 15, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Aidan O'Carroll - Essendon 

I reckon Essendon will sneak into the eight. Their loss to GWS last week hurts but with the best percentage of the teams around them with 103.4, I believe they can sneak in.

They have Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Collingwood. They should win at least two of those, and they might have to knock off Sydney on the weekend, but they put it up to the Swans earlier in the year so they're every chance.

The return of Shiel, Caldwell, Langford and McGrath in the coming month should boost them up, and may catapult them into the eight.

AFL Rd 9 - Essendon v Brisbane
GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - JULY 31: Andrew McGrath of the Bombers handballs during the round nine AFL match between the Essendon Bombers and the Brisbane Lions at Metricon Stadium on July 31, 2020 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Brady Campi - Richmond

I feel like they have the best draw out of the teams in the race for eight, they will need to get some key players back over the next couple of weeks but they will still believe they can beat anyone they come up against.

If their midfield can get enough of the ball going forward, Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt could find some form which can quickly change the fortunes for the Tigers.

They also have a lot of talented and experienced leaders among the group including Trent Cotchin, Dylan Grimes, Jayden Short and Shai Bolton who I think will drag the Tigers to September action.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: Shai Bolton of the Tigers celebrates after scoring a goal during the round 22 AFL match between the Richmond Tigers and the West Coast Eagles at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on August 18, 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)