While Round 7 of the 2022 AFL season is yet to come to a conclusion, the wheat of the competition is slowly starting to be sorted from the chaff.
And although early wins on the board do not necessarily guarantee a ticket to the finals, losses strung together before the bye have always been historically hard to overcome as the season ages.
Ahead of Round 1, there was a litany of sides that punters were willing to concede wouldn't end 2022 with the cup in hand.
Last year's wooden spooners, North Melbourne, were given a snowflake's chance in Hades of plucking their fifth premiership, with fellow rebuilders Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn also scratched from contention.
And with just a win apiece to their name at the present, both of Port Adelaide and West Coast are cruising towards joining these sides on the sideline come September.
But despite making the eight last year - and in one case, the grand final itself -ย Zero Hanger's Senior Editor Mitch Keating believes that each of the Bombers, Giants, Tigers and Bulldogs can already be ruled out of the premiership race.
With the fierce starts to the season made by the likes of Carlton, Fremantle and St Kilda, both of Essendon and Greater Western Sydney would have faced stiff opposition to hold onto their finals tickets.
But with each starting their respective campaigns at 1-5, Keating contended that their possible arm-wrestles are all but over.
โWhen we take into consideration the clubs that had a chance coming into the year โฆ you look at the Bombers and the Giants, and you can quickly put a line through their hopes of contending for the flag and taking that next big step this year," he said.
โTheyโll look to be going back one or two and they are both young lists, so there is that time on their hands for years to come."
| P | W | L | PTS | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | SYD | 23 | 17 | 6 | 68 | 126.7 |
| 2 |  | PORT | 23 | 16 | 7 | 64 | 114.8 |
| 3 |  | GEEL | 23 | 15 | 8 | 60 | 112.2 |
| 4 |  | GWS | 23 | 15 | 8 | 60 | 109.1 |
| 5 |  | BL | 23 | 14 | 8 | 58 | 121.9 |
| 6 |  | WB | 23 | 14 | 9 | 56 | 125.1 |
| 7 |  | HAW | 23 | 14 | 9 | 56 | 118.5 |
| 8 |  | CARL | 23 | 13 | 10 | 52 | 110.2 |
While moods will be buoyed at Tigerland following their 109-point demolition of the Eagles in Perth to start the weekend, interruptions aplenty could well be the key to Richmond missing out on a fourth flag in six seasons.
โI think the Tigers are another one [that you can rule out]," Keating expressed.
โInjuries have hampered their season, but from a full personnel point of view, I donโt think they have the list or the players at the moment that are stepping up, as we have seen over the years.
โSome aging bodies and just the health of some of their defence has left them as a big question mark."
After leading during the third term of last season's decider, the Western Bulldogs were seen by all and sundry as near locks to contend once again.
Yet, due to defeats at the hands of Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and Adelaide thus far, this September certainty has crept much closer to ambiguity across the opening month and change.
In spite of the fact that the Dogs' best football is more than enough to worry any competitor, an inability to field their strongest possible squad on a consistent basis has quelled this threat.
Though it would lie closer to silly than brave to rule the Bulldogs out of the finals action altogether, Keating was happy to suggest replicating the joys of 2016 was likely out of reach.
โThe Bulldogs are a funny one,โ he recommenced.
โI think we have to put them in this group just given the fact of what Luke Beveridge said post-game after they had lost to Adelaide.
โThey donโt have the personnel at the moment. They donโt have players stepping up when required. They donโt have the cattle to really be giving them that next wave when they lose players through injury or COVID or personal reasons, as weโve seen in recent weeks."
With depth and luck playing a crucial role in the Demons' snapping their premiership drought last year, it is these crucial chips that have been stacked against the Dogs.
โThey just donโt have that next wave coming through with a reliance on their younger players or their reserve players, and you definitely need that to win a premiership," Keating added.
โMelbourne were lucky last year that they didnโt have to rely on it, but even sometimes this season, theyโve shown that when a player goes down, it is that โnext man upโ mentality is leading the way.
โSo, I think the Bulldogs are definitely in that group as well.โ
Given we are all yet to collectively flip April's page over on our calendars, there remains ample time for each club to kick corrections into place.
But with only eight spots available to make a sprint in September, each of the Bombers, Giants, Tigers and Bulldogs will need to increase the pace if they are to make it to the starting blocks at all.
