It's AFL Grand Final week, which means nearly every single Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions fan in the country is scrounging for a ticket to what will be a sold-out MCG on Saturday, while millions more are set to be watching from home or out and about, hoping to embed themselves in the action.
It doesn't get any bigger than this. It also helps the billing, too, that the two heavyweights of the modern era are facing off, who, between them, have shared seven of the last 24 flags, which will soon be eight of 25. The Lions shrug off Collingwood in their preliminary final, defeating the Magpies by 29 points, and the Cats defeated their old enemy, Hawthorn, sprinting away late to win by 30.
In the coaches' boxes, you have Chris Scott leading Geelong, who has won flags in 2011 and 2022, and also played off in the 2020 AFL Grand Final against Richmond; and in Brisbane's, Chris Fagan, who is taking his side to their third consecutive decider, losing to Collingwood in 2023 before winning against Sydney last year.
The winner will claim his third premiership and Jock McHale Medal, drawing level with recent greats like Damien Hardwick and Mick Malthouse, and bettering the likes of Mark Thompson and Denis Pagan, who won two.
Team news and injuries
Geelong Cats ($1.50 with TABtouch)
The Cats' vice-captain, Tom Stewart, will miss the grand final after entering concussion protocols when subbed out in the preliminary final against Hawthorn. Jed Bews or Rhys Stanley are the two options to replace Stewart. With Bews being a more like-for-like replacement, while if Stanley is selected, Mark Blicavs would likely replace Stewart in the backline.
Brisbane Lions ($2.60 with TABtouch)
Lions co-captain Lachie Neale is set to return for the grand final after injuring his calf in the qualifying final against the Cats. It is a risky decision to play Neale, but it could pay off if Neale is able to have an impact and help the Lions get over the line.
Wingman Jarrod Berry is set to miss the game due to a shoulder injury that has troubled him throughout the year. The Lions look only to make the one change, with Neale replacing Berry in the side, which would see Levi Ashcroft move back to the wing. Levi Ashcroft is currently $1.87 to have more than 15 disposals.
Key stats
This season, the Cats are 18-0 when leading at three-quarter time, and 18-1 when leading by scores from turnover. The Lions will have to control the ball and minimise turnovers to reduce the Cats' scoring capabilities. The Cats are currently $2.45 to lead at every change.
The Lions are 12-0 when they lead the contested possessions count this season. The Cats will need to restrict the Lions' contested ball, and they will likely send Oisin Mullin to Hugh McCluggage and Tom Atkins to Lachie Neale or Will Ashcroft. McLuggage amassed 37 disposals against Collingwood, and is $2.45 to have 25 disposals or more in the grand final. Will Ashcroft is $2.32 to have more than 30 disposals.
Geelong and Brisbane have split their last eight meetings, at four wins apiece, stretching back to the Cats' grand final-winning season of 2022. The most significant form line for this 2025 AFL Grand Final came in the qualifying final, which took place three weeks ago.
The Cats won that match by 38 points, with a score of 112-74 (186 total points). Geelong are $2.60 to win by 25 points or more with TABtouch on Saturday, and $2.05 to win by 16 or more.
The line for the grand final is set at 11.5 points, with the Lions at $1.90 to come within two goals of the favourites. The Cats are $1.90 to win by 12 points or more. The total points line for the 2025 AFL Grand Final has been set at 170.5 points, with $1.90 on offer for over and under that mark.
North Smith market
Boom Cats recruit Bailey Smith is the $6.00 favourite to claim the Norm Smith medal on Saturday, and is fresh off a club-best 29 votes in the Brownlow Medal, which saw him finish third behind winner Matt Rowell and runner-up Nick Daicos.
Smith's inspirational captain, Patrick Dangerfield, who narrowly missed out on a medal in 2022, finishing behind the winner, Isaac Smith, is $8.50 to claim an elusive Norm Smith Medal.
Perhaps the best story is that of Max Holmes, who was heartbreakingly denied a place in the Cats' 2022 AFL Grand Final side due to injury, with the All-Australian midfielder $8.50 to the Norm Smith Medal this time around.
For an outsider, Ollie Dempsy is one to keep an eye on. He was a standout performer in the qualifying final, racking up 25 disposals and kicking three goals in the win over the Lions. He is $31 shot to win the Norm Smith Medal.
Similarly, Lions pair Dayne Zorko (35 disposals in the qualifying final, $31 to win the Norm Smith) and Josh Dunkley (30 disposals in the qualifying final, $21 to win the Norm Smith) could be worth keeping an eye on.
Last year's Norm Smith Medal winner Will Ashcroft ($11 this year) was sensational against the Collingwood Magpies in the preliminary final, kicking two back-breaking goals to go with his 20 disposals.
Be a part of the action with TABtouch. Odds are subject to change from the time of publishing. Place a Same Game Multi and combine up to 16 legs for bigger odds.
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