You don't have to tell fans at Optus Stadium or Engie Stadium twice, but the Fremantle Dockers and GWS Giants bowed out of the AFL finals race last week, leaving the hunt for premiership glory to six teams.
Two of those flag-chasing teams (the Geelong Cats and Collingwood Magpies) have already vaulted into the preliminary finals, while the other four (Adelaide Crows, Hawthorn Hawks, Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns) must win do-or-die semi-finals this weekend, or begin planning for Mad Monday.
If you are a supporter of one of the 12 clubs out of the finals, TABtouch's form guide has the stats and storylines you need to know, helping you find a ‘second team' for September.
THE FLAG FAVOURITES
1) Geelong Cats
TABtouch premiership odds: $2.60
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $1.50
Next match: Preliminary Final v winner of Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn Hawks
They have the Coleman medal winner, Jeremy Cameron, a headline-grabbing Brownlow medal favourite, Bailey Smith, and a decades-long pedigree of success. With a place already booked in the preliminary final, Chris Scott's men are as imposing as any flag favourite this decade.
The Cats began their September campaign emphatically, man-handling the Brisbane Lions in their qualifying final to win by a 38-point margin. It was a victory of particular significance to the Cats, as the Lions defeated Geelong in a heart-stopping preliminary final in last year's finals series.
Their potential preliminary final opponents this year are the wound-licking Adelaide Crows or the resurgent Hawthorn Hawks, who, although both possess stars across the field, would each start as underdogs against the Cats at the MCG. The Crows would still be without Izak Rankine, and the Hawks would be playing their third final in a third state this September.
Geelong are primed across the park, with their captain, Patrick Dangerfield, and star rebound defender, Tom Stewart, in strong finals form. The Cats have a bevy of attacking options, including the returning Ollie Henry, who kicked four against the Lions, and former All-Australian livewire Tyson Stengle, to break any game open.
2) Collingwood Magpies
TABtouch premiership odds: $3.25
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $1.65
Next match: Preliminary Final v winner of Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns
Everything changed in four quarters of football. The Collingwood Magpies limped into September, losing five of their last seven games and relying on surprise results to cement their place in the top four. However, Craig McRae's men dug in at Adelaide Oval to shock the minor premier Adelaide Crows, winning a gritty affair by a somewhat comfortable four-goal margin.
While Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos was sensational and former All-Australian defender Isaac Quaynor played one of the games of his life, it is the form of mid-season recruit Ned Long and the somewhat polarising Lachie Schultz that can lift the Magpies to another stratosphere in September.
Magpies faithful will also fancy their chances heading into their preliminary final next week, where they will either play a beaten-up Brisbane Lions squad, missing Lachie Neale among others, or the Gold Coast Suns, who must already classify their maiden September as an unequivocal success.
History would be heavy on the Magpies in a potential grand final berth, despite their premiership victory in 2023. The club has won only 16 of their 45 grand final appearances, and the 2011 loss to the Geelong Cats, which signalled the end of the Mick Malthouse era, is still fresh in the minds of many fans.
THE BRUISED CONTENDERS
3) Adelaide Crows
TABtouch premiership odds: $10
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $4.00
Next match: Friday night, Adelaide Crows ($1.80) v Hawthorn Hawks ($2.02)
If the Adelaide Crows slip up for the second week in a row and lose to the Hawthorn Hawks, the Matthew Nicks-coached side would be the first minor premier in the game's history not to contest a preliminary final. It's a mind-blowing statistic, but also a reminder that teams top the AFL ladder for a reason.
The Crows won 18 games during the regular season, three more than the Hawks, and it would take an outlier the length of the River Torrens to see them pushed aside so early.
Led by their inspirational skipper Jordan Dawson, fellow All-Australia selections Riley Thilthorpe, the evergreen Tex Walker, and boom recruit Alex Neale-Bullen, the Crows have played some outstanding football in 2025. Just last month, they defeated the Hawks at Adelaide Oval during a fiery 14-point win, where Thilthorpe made his presence felt with four goals.
Should they progress into the preliminary final, something that could hold the Crows back is that they won't play at home again, which has been a fortress for them in 2025. They'd be rank outsiders against the Cats, and likely again in a grand final, unless perhaps the Suns or Lions spoil the Magpie party. For a minor premier, the Crows' road to glory is alarmingly uphill, but it will be a step at a time.
4) Brisbane Lions
TABtouch premiership odds: $8.00
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $3.50
Next match: Saturday night, Gabba, Brisbane Lions ($1.57) v Gold Coast Suns ($2.40)
Never count out a wounded warrior. The Brisbane Lions showed plenty of mettle last year, putting aside a devastating 2023 AFL Grand Final four-point defeat to Collingwood, and storming to the last Saturday in September. That was from fifth place, no less. In the grand final, they beat the top-of-the-table Sydney Swans by 10 goals.
At their best, the Lions are the No. 1 team in the competition. However, their injury list is a long read, with names like Lachie Neale, Eric Hipwood, Keidean Coleman, Noah Answerth and Lincoln McCarthy all out of the team. Cruelly, it feels as though the wheels have fallen off at the worst possible time.
Still, the Ashcroft brothers have been as impressive this season as anyone could have hoped for, with Will Ashcroft building on his Norm Smith Medal win to post a strong campaign, while Levi Ashcroft has put himself in the conversation for the Rising Star Award. Hugh McCluggage is finally an All-Australian, even if well held in the team's qualifying loss to the Geelong Cats. But for how long can Chris Fagan and his team continue to work minor miracles?
If they lose the semi-final QClash to the storming Suns, it will be one of the most forgivable straight-sets finals exits in the game's history. If they win? Collingwood looms in the preliminary final, where a few tired bodies will be buoyed by the chance to get revenge for '23.
Count them out at your own risk.
THE PARTY CRASHERS
5) Hawthorn Hawks
TABtouch premiership odds: $11
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $4.50
Next match: Friday night, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide Crows ($1.80) v Hawthorn Hawks ($2.02)
The Hawthorn Hawks spent much of the offseason and the early rounds of the regular season as premiership favourites, but a mid-year slump that saw them lose three straight games meant Sam Mitchell's team had to fight their way into the eight.
Eventually, they would claim the last spot in September, keeping out a Western Bulldogs team that must be regarded as one of the best ever to not feature in a finals. The Hawks' greatest victory of the season is also their most recent, winning an elimination final against the fast-finishing GWS Giants at Engie Stadium, which also doubled as their first win at the ground.
The Hawks' finals campaign ended at Adelaide Oval last year, losing a fiery three-point thriller to the Port Adelaide Power. They'll be better for that experience, and head coach Sam Mitchell has flagged his young team as having matured and being ready to rise to the challenges of September.
As for what would be next? A potential Geelong Cats preliminary final is the kind of mouthwatering match-up Don King would be proud to put on a fight poster. Overcome that, and the Hawks are a real play to snare a 14th flag. Still, a lot would have to go right.
6) Gold Coast Suns
TABtouch premiership odds: $15
To make the 2025 AFL Grand Final odds: $6.00
Next match: Saturday night, Gabba, Brisbane Lions ($1.57) v Gold Coast Suns ($2.40)
The story of September. The Gold Coast's thrilling one-point elimination final victory over the Fremantle Dockers was 14 years in the making, and in seasons to come will likely be remembered as a key turning point for the franchise.
Noah Anderson has led from the front all season and is duly among the Brownlow medal favourites, while Matt Rowell and Mac Andrew have stood up in big game moments, proving their September bona fides. John Noble, the former Magpie who missed out on a premiership in 2023 due to a selection surprise, is making his case for recruit of the season.
While it is easy to cast Damien Hardwick's team in the Cinderella role, it is also worth remembering they were only denied a top-four position thanks to a spirited Port Adelaide performance in Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak's final game.
The biggest QClash in history will be played on Saturday night, as the Suns challenge an injury-riddled Brisbane Lions before a sold-out Gabba. A week after their signature win, they have a chance for another. And should they win that? The Magpies await in the preliminary final, where all eyes will be on Noble again.
It all feels too good to be true at the Suns. But if you are a believer, there is some value in their price.
Be a part of the action with TABtouch. Odds are subject to change from time of publishing. Place a Same Game Multi and combine up to 16 legs for bigger odds.
WHAT ARE YOU REALLY GAMBLING WITH? For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
